Currency Technical Analysis

USDINR

USDINR – retraced 23.6% intraday at 65.29, and we are open to 65.12 at 38.2%, and this is wave ii of a larger move up. Once done wave iii goes to much higher levels; iii=i=66.20. We are in the second week of a 4 week cycle for rising USDINR pair, based on its typical cycle.

EURO

Euro – Wave 2 ended or is a complex pattern. So either wave 1 of 3 is forming or an x wave. 61.8% at 1.88 is the first resistance at 61.8% followed by 78.6% at 1.198. The near term trend is up for the Euro then

USDINR, USDGBP And Euro Technical Analysis

USDINR

USDINR – has retraced 66% of the initial rally. wave I therefore think it is wave i of iii subdividing. iii=i would point to 66.45 or higher if extended. Today prices broke out of the downtrending line and closed above the 20dma so that was a positive sign.

USDGBP

USDGBP – wave iii up next points to 0.787 with support at 0.757.

EURO

The Euro hourly chart shows a flag and a-b-c rise. The structure of wave c is not clear, so it is over or a few more squiggles or attempts at the upper channel can also occur. Once we break the flag however the move should be in wave 3 down to new lows

The Euro hourly chart shows a flag and a-b-c rise. The structure of wave c is not clear, so it is over or a few more squiggles or attempts at the upper channel can also occur. Once we break the flag however the move should be in wave 3 down to new lows.

Dollar Index, USDJPY & USDINR Technical Analysis

DOLLAR INDEX

The dollar index completed its first impulse wave since the bottom in Sept and at the wave IV high of the previous decline. So we are dipping in wave II down and should find support at 93 or 92.60 after which wave III up may start.

USDJPY

USDJPY completed a 5 wave advance and is pulling back in a minor wave ii. 38.2% near 111.20 is a normal pullback. 110.50 and 109.70 are the next two important retracements.

USDINR

USDINR – 3 wave correction complete in a channel the next move should be higher. Wave v up should be next and may either test the wave iii high at 65.90 or stretch as far as 66.45 before it is complete.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

EURINR, USDINR and US 10 Year T Notes Technical Analysis

EURINR

The EURINR completes a 5 wave rise from April and should now be in wave 2 down, that can retrace 23.6% to 75 at least or 73.75 near 38.2% retracement

US 10 YEAR T NOTES

After a long wait the US 10 year and 30 year momentum indicators rolled over yesterday and tonight they broke the rising channel from the July low so the move up should be complete. The bond market started its next wave down. Unless it is part of a more complex rise, we should anticipate that wave 3/C down long term has finally started. Prices sold off from the 20 month averages. Next will be the broader rising channel from the March low.

USDINR

USDINR has spent a lot of time trying to move higher so it is possible that wave C down is developing into an ending pattern. The 20 week average at 64.24 is acting as a still resistance that can push prices down in wave e to 63.32. Unless we get above 64.24 this maybe the case. Once wave C is complete prices should start a prolonged advance.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd