Currency – Technical Analysis

EURO

Euro – c=a points to 1.105 and 38.2% retracement is at 1.102, the trend should still be lower.

 

USDJPY

USDJPY should continue higher in wave c up to 115. Support is near 110.60

USDGBP

USDGBP – took support on the averages and has mostly started wave 5 up. Support is near 0.783 amd 0.777 and we should be heading to test 0.808 swing high next and eventually the wave 3 high at 0.846

USDCNY

USDCNY – corrected in 3 waves in what might be a 4th wave correction in a channel. Wave 5 up could start from 6.78. I cannot rule out a dip to 6.76, while non needed, and it would be a 38.2% retracement of wave 3. 5=1 pionts to 7.04 in wave 5 up. 6.892 resistance from the falling channel where we would have to breakout for higher levels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Commodity – Technical Analysis

NICKEL MCX

Nickel has a ending diagonal pattern at the lows the lower end support is near 558. The breakout is above 575-579. Daily momentum crossed over to the buy side as a start, so keep an eye on the next breakout as it may mark a trend reversal from down to up

LEAD MCX

Lead tried to break the double bottom support at 132 but is back above it and momentum has positive divergences and a buy mode, so till this level holds the bottom for Lead Mcx maybe considered. A move above  the 40dema and Bollinger band would further confirm strength.

 

ZINC MCX

Zinc has made a comeback on momentum indicators and crossed the 20dma. The breakout of the falling trendline from the Feb high is at 166.50 above which we can be in wave 3 up next. Conservatively a channel breakout has a measurement target based on taking the height of the channel and projecting it above the breakout point. That gives us 185.

GOLD

Gold’s sell off yesterday makes sure that the May June rally was corrective in nature. Chances are growing that we are in a larger triangle. Initially we will test the internal trendline of the 2017 lows near 1228$, but if that breaks then a drop to 1170 cannot be ruled out. So we will watch what happens at 1228, and not preempt a bottom there. The larger triangel structure will be a very bullish set up for long term investors once complete. By July-Aug it could be done.

Aluminium MCX

MCX Aluminium prices moved up yesterday out of a narrow intraday range of the last few days. It was very close to the lower end of a channel near 119 and 38.2% retracement near 120. The move up would test the falling channel at 125.70. And a breakout above the channel would put us into wave 5 up to 140 [ based on 5=1]

SILVER

I have recently switched to bearish wave counts for the near term on gold and silver but that does not change the long term bullish picture. So Silver is in wave C down which is usually a 5 wave decline. Wave iii of C is in progress and could be extended. Wave C=A points to 15.24$. Wave iii of C may extend to 15.84.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canada And Nasdaq – Technical Analysis

CANADA
The most direct effect of falling Oil is on countries like Russian Australia and yes Canada. So Canada has been making a series of lower tops since FEB that may have gone unnoticed but now it is close to breaking the neckline at 15130 below which a steep drop to 14500 could be on the cards.

 

NASDAQ

US indices are diverging with max weakness in the Nasdaq. The chart attached shows that may remain the case near term and the Nasdaq may continue to form wave 2 up for a while. Wave 3 can be presumed only after the lows break. Till then the Dow is holding out.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Dollar Index and USD GBP – Technical Analysis

Dollar Index

On the weekly charts the dollar index retraced 61.8% of the entire previous advance. Also at the point marked 3 sentiment was down to 5% bullish only. Now it is possible to mark the fall as a 5 wave decline except that wave 5 is too short and truncated. That I did not expect. However as we have moved past 97, it is a possible outcome. What this would mean is that we retrace some portion of this 5 wave fall before another decline can occur. 98 would be the first immediate hurdle. 98.23 is 38.2% of the 5 wave decline. A larger retracement would be 61.8% at 99.50. There is reason to be open to some bounce back in the dollar before another wave down starts till 96.455 holds.

USDGBP

The one currency supporting the strong dollar thesis has been the Pound. USDGBP has still to complete a 5th wave on the quarterly chart and after the 38.2% retracement and the elections the stage maybe set up. Wave 5 up for the contracct would go up to 0.90 based on 5=1

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Adam Smith Associates At UK Trade & Export Finance Conference 2017

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Amazon – Dont You Dare This

Don’t You Dare this Amazon – but I would not have looked at the chart if it was not all over the news for the new record in price. Now if something is being watched so closely that it does not get missed by all the media it must carry a lot of emotion with it. The chart from the 2015 low marks as a 5 wave rise, where 3<1, and so 5<1 must also be true. The move up yesterday kissed the trendline from the wave 1 and 3 tops. So is wave 5 over. The weekly chart shows us to be in wave v of 5, so this is the final wave in the structure so far. So watch the next turn lower in Amazon closely as it can mark the end of a 5 wave rise and a correction. But that has not yet happened but we could be close.

 

Even on a Quarterly chart from 2001 it can look like this. Wave 5 of 5 up in progress.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Technical Analysis On Karachi & Sri Lanka Markets

I do not invest in Karachi but was clear that the neighboring market was going to beat the Nifty. Now it is also important from a geopolitical angle. Do not expect escalation of border problems during a bull market. Frankly they do not care and do not have time for this. Not in the near future ie the next six months because wave 5 is still extending and should touche the upper end of the rising channel since 2009 before it is done. Maybe even a throw over the line. 66000-70000 remains on the cards. This is a quarterly chart.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is in a long term 4th wave consolidation that might eventually transform into a 4th wave. So far wave C was 61.8% of wave B. Wave D can test the upper line at 7610 and wave E the lower line near 6261. After that a 5th wave bull market will follow.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

VIX Volatility Index

The US VIX has been in the news in the last few days. So right after the India VIX made its lowest reading on record, the US VIX has dipped to a low that touches the trendline of the low in 1993 to the low in 2006. In the long term history of the VIX these low points did not mark major market tops. At the same time it maybe noted that the US VIX rises higher much before such an event. So volatility was already rising into the 2007 S&P top before it happened.

On the other hand shorter term lows in the VIX have been associated with near term market corrections and therefore we may still pay attention to it. The recent low is also on the trendline of the lows of the last two years. So a rise in near term volatility from here when it happens would give us a near term correction is all we can say with this.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic & international clients.

Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst.

Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd.