Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD

With gold near 1264.70, 66% retracement the rise is 7 legs. Now it is possible to consider that wave iii up started based on yesterdays discussion however with the dollar still due for a near term rally from oversold conditions consider that till 1264 is not surpassed we may see one last dip lower in Gold prices. Above 1264 we go to 1287 at the trendline of the tops from the 2016 high.

CORN CBT

Corn prices bottomed at the 66% mark and are quitely moving higher. Holding this level at 1780 long term we should be in the early stages of a new move higher. A new bull trend rather than a X wave is what I would think but far from over.

Copper

Copper prices to develop wave iv correction. RSI at 78 it is quite overbought. Forming a doji yesterday. Wave iv can be a 38.2% retracement back to 2.80$. It maybe a swift correction or possibly a more prolonged time wise pattern like a triangle.

Gaur Gum

Guar Gum – is in the early stages of a larger up move. So it seems after the recent price action. In my last post I thought the rally was a 4th wave and it went past the 2015 low overlapping it. So that option is out. The only best option is that a A-B-C bear market ended in 2016. The recent correction in prices is to the lower end of a rising channel and that support has held so far near 6578. The rising channel marks the early stages of a larger rise if it holds and means prices would go beyond the 8671 high to test the upper end of the channel at 9490. Breakout above the rising channel at 9490 would go to the next major swing high at 12900.

Silver

Silver – reached the upper Bollinger band at 16.82 and sold off. Staying below this level prices may start another decline back to 16.15 and then 15.50 and then 15

Turmeric

Turmeric completed an impulsive rally in wave i, after a dip in wave ii we should see wave iii. 7556 the recent high once crossed we go to iii=i, which can be between 9100-9800

Copper MCX

No body gets the commodity rally just like nobody got the dollar bear market so I take credit for both forecasts. Global copper prices hit a 52 week high in wave 3. So MCX prices also should be o that path. A minor wave iv correction may get followed by wave v up. larger degree 3=1 is at 475 so we have a long way to go.

Aluminium MCX

Aluminium prices formed a triangle and broke out on the upside. Wave wise minor wave iii started. Breakout of a falling channel is above 125. Support from averages near 122. iii=i points to 127.80. And the channel breakout target based on the size of the channel goes to 132.

Zinc MCX

Zinc prices ticked up yesterday, daily momentum indicators are still to confirm, but a 3 wave correction to the lower band is complete, so wave iii up mostly started. The overhead trendline from the previous top is at 188.8 as the first resistance followed by iii=i near 209. That is the easy part. The one hard to digest is that wave 3=1 at larger degree now points to 330. Wave 1 ended at 204.20, and a move above that would have the potential to go to as far as 330.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Relative Rupee

In case you did not notice the INR pair, the USDINR, has note exactly been falling like the rest of the worlds currency pairs. The relative rupee is the RS of the USDINR with the DXY or dollar index. This is rising since April. Meaning that on a relative basis holding steady the INR is actually weaker than the dollar. We in effect have a currency devaluation quietly

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Euro And US 10 Years T Notes Technical Analysis

Euro

The Euro bull run continued even as bearish sentiment is in single digits. This excessive near term bullish traders reading continues to mean that a 5 wave rise is closer to completion. For the rally to continue unabated a pause or consolidation is needed. That said the big picture remains bullish as everyone has the narrative wrong.

US 10 Years T Notes

The 10 year note has retraced almost 50% and wave c=a is nearly done. wave ii should be near completion and wave iii down is to unfold next soon.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodities Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold has its neckline of the lows [blue line], at 1238. So that is a key resistance level. Daily momentum did turn positive and prices broke out of the falling channel but some more signs are needed that the trend has changed to up for good.

Aluminium MCX
Aluminium rallied in 5 waves and retraced 61.8% at 121.70. Dipped to a low of 120.90. So these supports should help propel it into wave iii up iii=i points to 127.50

CRUDE MCX

Crude Mcx – is in wave c up. c=a goes up to 3200 however with wave c subdividing we can see it extend to higher rations. The x wave high near 3383, is 61.8% of the entire decline for the year. 50% is at 3257. Both are open levels that can be achieved in wave c

Silver MCX

Prices are edging higher with the 40dema at 38238 as the next resistance. I still think we can make one last dip in wave z that can test the lower channel line near 35000 a last time before a larger up trend can start. A move above 38238 however might mean that we have already bottomed out.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Technical Analysis of CRB Index, DOW, NASDAQ, BSE 200 And DAX

CRB Index
The CRB Index of commodities is now tracking higher with Oil and base metals. Only the PMs are lagging behind. While it is possible to imagine that Crude is still in wave B as a triangle, the CRB index that mostly reflects energy looks like it maybe done. The recent bottom involved a 66% retracement in price [blue line] and a weekly RSI of 29. Wave C up should not only carry to the wave A high but go past the grey trendline that marks the 2009 lows to rule out the case for new lows first in the index and oil as some are anticipating. My markings can change to 1-2-3 but even conservatively we should go in wave C to the upper end of the channel near 215 [current 178]

BSE 200

Is it possible to count the rise from 2009 as 5 waves? I usually take 2008-2013 as a triangle. But if I go by all the impulse wave markings of the street for each rally since 2009 it can be done as 9 legs are complete. In 2015 when I called the market top I used the Arithmetic scale chart of the BSE 200 or broader indices to project that the upper end of the channel was reached and we may go to the lower end. After 12 months down a move up started that after 2 years and adding 4 more waves [yellow extention] has brought us back to the upper end of the channel on the arithmetic scale. So it is a key resistance zone as much as given the number of waves completing the blow markings show we have 5+4=9 waves that can be marked as complete 5 waves with a 3rd wave extended for the long term 5th wave [circle]. Let us see what unfolds here.

NASDAQ 100

The Nasdaq 100, a year back among the many alternates I considered was a triangle for 2015-2016. Going back to that it changes the outlook for the Nasdaq near term. Wave 5 up would have only started. The upper trendline of the highs goes to 6080-6100.

DOW

Dow – wave 5 is extending, we are now in wave v of 5 and that is also subdividing. 21340 is the lower trendline and till it does not break we can go to 21800.

DAX – leading the way for Europe

Unlike US stocks that are stretching out in wave 5 higher, the European indices have 5 wave declines. It shows up very clearly in the German DAX. It recently bounced back in 3 waves to almost 61.8%. Yesterday it fell below the b wave low confirming that the bounce was corrective and maybe wave 3 down to  12060

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Brazil, Euro And Dollar Index Technical Analysis

Brazil – Wave 5 ended in FEB. We are now in the third leg, wave Y, which is a 3 wave decline marked as A-B-C and wave B mostly completed at the upper Bollinger band in a small 5 wave advance [wave c of B], so wave C down can go to 56000-55800 if C=A

 

DOLLAR INDEX

Wave 4 up in the dollar is still not complete. This especially as the Euro bullish sentiment reached a multi year record of nearly 93%. This reading needs to cool off more and the dollar should at least move up in wave c of 4 before we see the decline resume. 95.225 was the recent low and till it holds this is the view.

EURO

The Euro This morning on the hourly chart shows a clear 5 wave decline in wave A, and a bounce back which is mostly B. 38.2% at 1.138 or 61.8% at 1.14 may be achieved in wave B after which wave C can drop to 1.125 or as far as 1.11. The 5 wave decline should mean that the 5 wave rise from the April low is complete and being corrected. The first pull back in a larger up trend.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis

SOY BEAN NCDEX

Soy bean prices formed an expanding triangle near the 61.8% mark. Last time I wrote that a bounce can occur because of the triangle but as shown why not a bottom? Possible Wave Y is over. Either another X wave up retracing the Y or the start of a major impulse. The trend should be up as long as we are above 2650. Breakout of the triangle above 3035 to go to 3286

Copper MCX

Copper Closed the week down. Now 365 is the next support. Halting near retracements it is still possible that copper is within a larger corrective structure. The recent rally is not certainly impulsive. So if 365 breaks wee can see it go back to test the 353 low [below 2.62$ to 2.48$].

ZINC MCX

Base metals are showing a near term correction after Lead, Aluminium and Zinc look like completing near term 5 wave rallies. The indication therefore is of a positive trend ahead but after a pause correction or retracement. The size of a pullback is hard to say.

For Zinc below the 20dma at 173 is the immediate support. 167 is the 61.8% retracement mark.

CRUDE

Crude has fallen in 3 waves so far to 66% retracement. If the low of 43.65 is not broken we can start wave c up to 49.10 or higher.

Silver MCX

Reccent data from CFTC shows that bulls that were record long at the highs on Silver have given back almost all of their long positions. With sentiment at just 9% bullish we are at the fag end of the decline in gold and silver. The chart shows the falling channel for the price, that I published a while back. At yesterdays low we came close to the line and we may test it one last time in wave z down. The channel is at 35000. The RSI is also entering the oversold sub-30 range.

CORN CBT

Corn – Prices surged with the rest of the Agro prices on the international markets. Corn hit a new high as it starts a larger degree 3rd wave up. Wave 3 up points to 460 just based on 3=1. That is a normal non extended wave over 12 months.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

Currency And US 30 Year Treasury Bonds Technical Analysis

While the 10 year has already broken the rising channel 2 days ago the 30 year bonds are now at the rising trendline near 152. So a further decline in the bond market will get this second confirmation of a break down in the bond market. We would be at the start of a 3rd wave down in US bonds. [We have discussed this scenario and its impact in this months Long short report.]

USDCAD

USDCAD – the last post identified the Wave B high at 61.8%. From there we have a 5 wave decline so the down trend is established. We may get the first retracement of the fall when the 5 wave decline completes but the larger trend down will resume again, till C=A is achieved. The RSI is getting oversold. 1.33 near the wave 4 high would be a resistance level during a counter trend move up. After that we may head to 1.25 in wave 3 of C.

EURO

The euro/dollar did not achieve 1.15 and it is hard to say yet that prices have started wave 2 down. When they do we get a retracement of the entire 5 wave rise back to the wave 4 low near 1.11. Till then it is open to interpretation. But the overall picture is clear, that we are ending a 5 wave rise and due for retracement before a larger rally resumes

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Nasdaq, DAX And Karachi Index Technical Analysis

NASDAQ

So while the Dow tested its highs again the Nasdaq was again pulled down as all the FANG stocks gave up. The Nasdaq 100 index broke the 29/06 swing low. The neckline of a h&s broken the pattern points to 5420.

DAX

DAX – the German index has not confirmed a trend reversal on long term charts yet but it did form a doji star on the quarterly chart. That it did so after achieving the target of 5=1 shown by the box makes it an important candle to watch as the trend could be complete here

KARACHI 100

A very steep fall in the Karachi 100, and it is in wave 5/5, but the 5th wave did not achieve the Fibonacci or channel target. So I leave it open as to whether the final top is in or not. While possible ideally it should extend some more.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis

Copper

Copper Quarterly momentum crossed over to the buy side as a positive indication. We still have to get over the quarterly averages at 2.73 and 2.84 for a larger move to 3.80 to develop.

Gold

Gold broke the neckline of the last several months at 1230$. The neckline measurement target coincides with the 78.6% retracement near 1160. However the rising trendline from the 2015 Dec bottom is at 1173. 61.8% is at 1188. That gives us two levels to watch for oversold readings and a trend reversal to capture the bottom in gold. 1188 and 1172-1160. It is normal for wave E to either be short or go below the lower line [causing a selling exhaustion] before turning around. Right now staying below 1232 is bearish near term.

Soy Meal CBT

Soy Meal prices made a double bottom near 292$, and broke out of the falling trendine for wave of 2. A bottom maybe now in place for a larger 3rd wave up to start. Initial hurdle is 330 at 61.8% of Y. Then the X at 354 after that we should be heading to a new high above 432.Failure to go above 330 and 354 can keep us in wave 2 by some alternate patters.

Silver

Silver hit the 20dma resistance at 16.90 and sold off. Staying below this level Silver would be in wave iii down to 15.52

Wheat CBT

After being bullish global wheat prices in my last update I was negative as prices reacted from the falling channel of the last few years. But we now have a breakout so it is best to stick to the original outlook. Wheat CBT should be in wave 3/3 up now. Staying above 470 the trend is up and the next two swing resistance levels are 524 and 615. The monthly Bollinger band is also near 500. So getting past the 500-524 range would expand volatility meaningfully.

Sugar CSCE

The relentless fall in global sugar may have ended. Wave v of C down was forming for a while and extending. Now it counts as a completed 5 wave decline and yesterday’s bounce gets the RSI out of oversold territory. The recent low is near the 2016 bottom seen in sugar so it is a good level to hold near 12.5$. This is also wave 2 down for the longer term. The next move up should mark the start of a 3rd wave advance in global sugar prices.

Coffee CSCE

Coffee prices bounced back from the oversold territory, meaning an RSI of below 30 on both the daily and weekly charts. The near term a falling trendline from the wave d high is at 131, so a move above 131 should be a final confirmation of a trend reversal. The quarterly chart below shows the big picture. The development of a triangle from 2010 onwards which is mostly wave B, and sets it up for wave C up a major new bull move for Coffee prices. Lets get a little imaginative here. If C=A is achieved over 5 years Coffee prices go to 700 from 125 now. That is quite crazy. The triangle breakout will be above 168. Note it is also possible that prices remain within the triangle for now and only go to 168 to come back to 120 again. So unless we breakout the triangle is still forming. For the year ahead however a move to 168 can be seen.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd