Euro, S&P 500, USDJPY, NYSE Composite & US 30 Years T Bonds Analysis

USDJPY

USDJPY – broke the trendline of the previous lows and may have started the next major leg lower. Wave iii down would point to 106.47 and resistance near 110.90

S&P 500

The first  waves of a decline appear to be complete on the S&P, ideally the next move should be wave iii down towards the 2407 swing low, near the wave iv mark. 2470 is the 20dma resistance.

US 30 Years Treasury Bonds

US Treasury bonds sold off from the 61.8% mark and the upper end of a flag. Ideally wave II is complete and wave III down unfolds which should see bond yields spike up in the coming weeks.

EURO

Making a near term change to my view on the Euro based on what I have already said about the dollar going lower. The 20dma support held and weekly charts align with this. Wave v of 3 may still be developing and should push the Euro higher closer to the 1.20 mark. After that we may look for a wave 4 dip.

 

NYSE Composite

The NYSE composite is a very different index of US stocks. It sold off this week from the upper end of a parallel channel of the lows for the 6 year period. Prices have been pushing against the smaller green channel since 2016 for months now and in doing so have reached the while channel before the decline. The very small blue channel for the last few months was broken and so that could at least start a move to the lower end of the green channel.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

COPPER

Copper could pull back to the 20dma at 2.83, and if it closes below that then take it seriously for a possible deeper set back

LEAD MCX

Lead prices sold off and did not continue as expected. The daily momentum crossed over to the sell side. Chances are that wave III did not take off, and a close below 147.54 would indicate that we are again in a correction and may retest 140 or lower.

ZINC MCX

Zinc prices recently paused near a key Fibonacci resistance where b=138.2% of a, as shown. If the recent high is surpassed then we continue higher in wave iii to levels discussed before. Failure however would trigger an expanded flat set up where wave c at 173 maybe seen in a decline. In an expanded flat wave b goes higher than the top and c goes lower in a ratio of 161.8% of a.

CRUDE

Crude fell below the level discussed day before. The implications are that the entire rise from the June bottom is corrective. The rising trendline on the chart at 47.10 is the last support below which we should be in wave E down.

Failure to go above the 61.8% mark means that we may now be forming wave E of a running triangle. Wave E can either test the neckline at 42.80 and bottom there or maybe even break below it. If 42 is broken then maybe even a alternate pattern will develop with a dip to the 61.8% retracement mark near 37.3. Ideally we should not break 42.

GOLD

Gold – sold off in two days again from the upper end of the rising channel and the 1300 mark for a third time. The daily momentum rolled over to the sell side. so unless we see a fresh pick up in gold maybe it will repeat the same pattern. 1261 is the trendline support a break of which will confirm that we are heading back to 1206 nekline

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

All eyes on DJIA and what about Dow Transports

All Eyes are on the DJIA, while the Dow transports just started wave v down forming a 5 wave decline ahead of other indices.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Amazon & Facebook – technical analysis report

Amazon sold off from the upper end of the channel after wave 5 and is below both the averages.

FACEBOOK

Facebook – a 5 wave advance maybe complete with the channel.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Russell 2000 where will it head for?

US equity indices are seeing major divergences in the last week. The Dow is alone at the new highs. The Nasdaq is moving lower slowly, the S&P is flat, the Transports is bouncing back from a 5 wave decline, and the Russell 2000 is now in minor wave iii down from the multiple highs in the channel of the 6 month highs and lows. We can say prices are attempting to move to the lower end of the range again at 1374.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

A series of corrective moves in gold, a move below the rising channel supporting prices for the last few weeks would change trend and that lower line is at 1262$.

SOY MEAL CBT

Soy Meal – completing a-b-c down wave 2 at 66% retracement at 307 might be done and wave 3 up to 356$ should be next.

Nickel MCX

Nickel Mcx is in wave v of iii. Once complete prices could correct somewhat in wave iv. The rise can also be marked as a-b-c complete, in which the trend can reverse down. So near term watch out for what Nickel does before a further call on it. First support will be near the 20dma at 630 and rising.

 

CRB Index

CRB index has an overlapping structure that can be a leading diagonal in wave A. So wave B down may occur as the momentum crossed back to the sell side. Watch if the lower trendline breaks. Could indicate near term weakness for commodities. While the rise can also be a wedge it appears like a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern.

Silver

Silver is at the trendline of the previous two tops down to 16.92 as a key resistance or breakout level.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Currency Technical Analysis

USDINR

USDINR broken the May 2017 low of 63.98 [spot]. Doing so the fall in USDINR from the 68.87 high in Nov is 5 waves down. This changes the wave counts longer term and am going with the alternate that I did not consider earlier. I have been trying for a while to complete the 5th wave of the rise from the 2011 bottom. That entire rise from 45-69 then would be wave 3 circle. But here I am thinking maybe not. Maybe this whole consolidation from 69 in 2013 when RR came into the RBI to date is wave 4 and wave 5 of 3 has still to form. Wave 4 may end near 63 or might continue to develop into a triangle for the rest of the year before wave 5 starts. The reverse channel at 63 is also good reason to consider a low near 63. I will continue to explore what should be the proper wave count for this whole period, but the long term trend is up and from near 63-62.80 we should start another move up for USDINR

EURO

The Euro is pushing at the upper channel line and overdue for a decline in wave 4 back down to the lower channel line near 1.15

EURINR

EURINR would complete its first wave up at larger degree and the next dip would be wave 2 of larger degree. Upper channel line at 76.17 and lower one at 74

US 10 Years T Notes

US T notes taking longer to sell off. Alternately they are forming a flag. Wave b bottomed at 61.8% retracement and wave c up might push higher before wave iii down starts.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Pharma Index Technical Analysis

Pharma Index

The Healthcare index that captures the Pharma sector gave up in the last two days. The rise is a-b-c, a 3 wave pattern, and overall an X wave in a larger decline for the sector. Wave Z down should mostly start, that should see a new low again at the lower end of the 2 year falling channel near 12500.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Mid Cap Weekly Technical Analysis

The weekly chart of the Midcap indices is important. Midcap indices are relatively weaker to nifty since May. So in the recent rally they have only gone back to test the weekly upper Bollinger band and that worked as a resistance today. The daily and weekly momentum below are in sell mode. The weekly momentum has a clear negative divergence with price. I would expect the Midcap indices to fall to at least the 40wema [green line] to start with [8% down].

Currencies Technical Analysis

EUR INR

The EURINR would also complete 5 wave rise from the April low if the Euro ends a third wave rally att this level. A 38.2% retracement to 72.50 is normal

USD GBP

USDGBP – has been correcting slowly for long, as long as I have maintained that wave 5 up is next and should develop. The change is from the yellow smaller triangle I considered earlier to the larger blue falling triangle in wave 4 that maybe completing. The USDGBP should be bottoming near or above 0.758. Breakout from the triangle is above 0.782. And wave 5 has a longer term target near the upper channel and 5=1 at 0.90

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd