Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD MCX Daily

No change in trend or view here. A slow decline is on as the dollar rises. So the USDINR can support mcx prices even as comex prices fall but the bias is negative. The 20dma at 29563 should be the key resistance level.  Retracement levels are open at 50-61.8%

LEAD MCX

Lead Prices started to break down. They may close the month down today. This can mean that longer term we completed a 5 wave advance in a double top as shown on this weekly chart. Major support levels are 144-142 at the lower trendlines and the wave 4 swing low at 131.

ALUMINIUM MCX

A 5 wave rise done for Aluminium the next set of levels are at 135 and 131 as long as we are below the 142 mark. Below 131 we would have to be open to 120 as well.

COPPER MCX

Copper prices stopped short of a new high, so wave v of 5 was truncated. The first support is at 440 [40dema and trendline] and if that breaks we go to the wave 4 low near 417.

BSE METALS

The BSE Metal index has completed a 5 wave advance from the Sept low and possibly from the May bottom. With Base metal prices also giving up expect a deeper cut in metal stocks in the coming weeks as they give back some of the gains. Going back to the wave iv low is normal.

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas for months is forming a triangle in what could be a right shoulder. The resistance line for the x wave is at 3.08, and the support is at 2.78, If 2.78 breaks we would head to 2.5-2.30.

BSE FMCG Index Technical Anaysis

The FMCG index has been in wave 5 long term since 2009 and it has been an extended move. It did not stop at 5=1 [circle], it did not stop at the upper end of the rising channel. The momentum has been slowing down since it hit the upper line. Two possible outcomes exist. First and primary that we are in wave IV of 5 up that itself fits a channel. A move to the lower end of the channel would complete wave IV and then wave V up would unfold to one final new high. The other alternate is to think that 2013-2017 is an expanding pattern. The time taken makes it look like this is the less likely pattern but would be a valid alternate if the rising channel for wave 5 up breaks down

US Dollar V/s Leading Currencies – Technical Analysis

USDAUD

USDAUD completed a wave 2 correction and wave 3 up should have startded. 3=1 points to 1.33 next with support near 1.26

USDCAD

USDCAD – is due to start wave iii up with iii=i pointint to 1.30, support at 1.25

USDINR

The monthly candles for USDINR show a engulfing bull pattern. The close for the month was above the previous bear pattern that had a high of 65. So 65 is an important pivot. The next move up should be seeing us up to 67 or the previous high at 68.87

USDZAR

USDZAR – or the South African Rand, wave ii pullback appears complete and wave iii up should be next. iii=i is at 14.40

Bitcoin – Where Is It Heading Technically?

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has everyone’s fascination. After each 5 wave rally an EW analyst would expect a correction, and if it is 3 waves like the last one in Sept. Now another 5 wave rise is in progress and must add at least 3 more waves up as shown to complete a 5 wave sequence before we can say this move is complete. I do believe however as discussed in the Podcast that Bitcoin is a manifestation of the liquidity bubble and therefore its final top may coincide with that of equities at some point with a lag.

Gold, Silver and Copper Technical Analysis

Silver MCX

Silver is in wave c down and c=a can point to 37608. The recent high for wave b is at 40632. Wave c may also extend lower to the 2 year trendline support that is closer to 36026. Wave c will be a 5 wave decline so till 5 waves down do not complete the move is not complete.

Copper MCX

Copper Mcx started minor wave v of 5 as a final push higher to a new high above the 466 high. Hard to put a number on how far it should go. But wave v of 5 should be final move for the last metal in the sector making a 5 wave advance.

GOLD Daily MCX

Gold was down and managed to push the daily momentum into sell mode. Gold Mcx closed very near the 40dema at 29571, below which gold should head to the lower Bollinger band at 29294. On weekly charts the 20/40 day averages are near 29090 as the next important support level. The weekly momentum also crossed over to the sell side as gold closed down for the week.

US 10 Years T Notes Technical Analysis

US 10 Years T Notes

The only reason I can think that drove fear into Indian markets would be the rising dollar accompanied by rising bond yields. The US 10 year treasury notes on Friday saw a bid dip closer to the wave 1 low. If broken it would confirm start of wave 3 up for bond yields. The 10 year notes should yields near 2.64% in wave 3.

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

SILVER MCX

Silver prices started to bounce back along with gold in wave b of a decline. Wave b should be a retracement of the fall that can test the previous swing high of the 20dma. These are at 40145 and 40595. Wave c down should eventually carry us closer to 36000

GOLD

Gold retraced 61.8% of the entire advance seen from Jul-Sep 2017. The rise was corrective in nature and therefore the retracement should not mark a major bottom. But a short term low may finally be in place. A bounce back to the averages or the previous swing high cannot be ruled out. 1297-1313, is what we are looking at on the upside before the move down resumes.

CRUDE

Crude has fallen in 5 waves from the recent high and is mostly wave a of E down. Not certainly complete yet. 49.42 and 48.15 are the next two support levels.

COPPER

Wave iv of 5 complete wave v of 5 in a final push up should test the 3.16 high. 2.97 is the support.

LEAD MCX

Lead MCX prices completed a 5 wave advance near the upper end of a rising channel. So expect a correction retracement or consolidation to follow. Upside maybe limited near term above 171.10, the high made.

ALUMINIUM MCX

Aluminium MCX took support on the 20dma at 136 and wave iii of 5 can go up to 146

ZINC MCX

Zinc completed a 5 wave advance short of the upper channel  at 221. Unless we are extending beyond that the move maybe complete and we could see a fresh correction or consolidation here on. Upside maybe limited. A retracement of the entire 5 wave advance is also not ruled out but we need to see the initial waves develop before judging the pattern. The lower end of the channel at 201 is the first support. The wave 4 low at 190 a major support.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Dollar Index, USDJPY & USDINR Technical Analysis

DOLLAR INDEX

The dollar index completed its first impulse wave since the bottom in Sept and at the wave IV high of the previous decline. So we are dipping in wave II down and should find support at 93 or 92.60 after which wave III up may start.

USDJPY

USDJPY completed a 5 wave advance and is pulling back in a minor wave ii. 38.2% near 111.20 is a normal pullback. 110.50 and 109.70 are the next two important retracements.

USDINR

USDINR – 3 wave correction complete in a channel the next move should be higher. Wave v up should be next and may either test the wave iii high at 65.90 or stretch as far as 66.45 before it is complete.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

CRUDE MCX

Crude prices on Mcx would be in a triangle in wave B. The triangle started to form from the second quarter of 2016. Wave E of B is the final leg down for the triangle from the upper end near 3480 to the lower end near 2790 this should be the final leg of the consolidation phase before we make it to a higher ground.

GOLD

The internal wave count of the fall for gold has now become complex and so it is best to mark it overall as W. An bounce back will be an X wave.

LEAD & ALUMINIMUM

MCX was closed yesterday so using the CFD futures. Metals are mixed up with Lead [below] and Zinc in wave v of a rise, while Nickel Copper and Aluminium [below], at near term supports and bouncing up. So if 2080$ holds then we may go higher on Aluminium, but Lead is in wave v and can turn into a correction anytime.

CRUDE

I discussed the downside risk to crude Medium term yesterday however near term if the 50.20 support [20dma] holds, and maintains the rising channel shown on this chart, maybe wave v of C up is still on the cards. The wave i high of 49.42 has not overlapped and till that happens wave v can be kept open. Wave v of C then can still make an attempt at 53$.

COPPER MCX

Copper prices are lagging but slowly moving higher. The recent fall was 7 legs and a corrective decline. So one more move to the highs is possible in wave 5 of the rise. 429-425 are supports, and 451 near the wave 3 high or 465 to the upper channel line again are open. The Bollinger band at 445 would be an interim resistance.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Dollar Index, USDTWD and USDSGD Technical Analysis

Dollar Index

The first five wave rise in the dollar to 94.10 about to complete.

USDTWD

The Taiwan Dollar – early days of forming a base and recovering from the lows. An X wave or a new rally? Both odds are open. Upper end of the falling channel is at 31.27 as the resistance to any X wave move up. A 5 wave rise and 3 wave correction long term are done though so odds should favour another impulse wave up.

USDSGD

USDSGD closed positive for the last two months – wave 3 of larger degree appears due to start on the monthly chart. If not at least a near term rally in the pair. Next resistance is at 1.38 and 61.8% retracement is at 1.41.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd