Nasdaq, Brazil, EURO, DAX & S&P 500 Technical Analysis

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Negative divergences continue on the weekly momentum for the Nasdaq that keeps bouncing back from the 20wma support [red average], The bands are narrow and either prices can expand the bands again by breakout out upwards or else we should at least pull back to the lower Bollinger band near 6041 [Upper end 6472]

BRAZIL

Brazil is the big beneficiary of the falling dollar. The equity market there was in a bearish trend from 2010-2016 when the dollar was rising. Now it is just the opposite. Wave 2 circle did not retrace much as I was anticipating and now wave 3 circle points to 11500 odd. This is a bull market. The Indian market does not relate with this at all.

EURO

During the last week the Euro fell in 3 waves and that leaves open one last alternate that wave 5 is still forming as a triangle. Wave e of 5 can push up to 1.21 a last time.

DAX

I wrote some time back that the DAX index is a leading diagonal in wave 1. Since then we are waiting for wave 2 to complete. Wave 2 is taking the shape of an expanded flat. Wave c of 2 up is now forming and c is now =161.8 times wave a, so the Fibonacci projection has been achieved. Wave wise wave c has to be 5 waves and might need one more up down sequence to complete. After that we can expect a major 3rd wave decline in European stocks or at least the DAX as a leading indicator.

S&P 500

S&P 500 is back at the upper end of the long term channel from 2009, at 2500. The trendline of the highs from June to August goes higher to 2522.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

US 30 Years Treasury Bonds & NASDAQ Composite Technical Analysis

US 30 Years Treasury Bonds

US 30 year bonds are still within retracements limits for wave II up, so while there is no change in the wave counts or view, wave II has gone up to 78.6% and wave III remains far overdue to start. The third wave in bond yields would see big jump in US interest rates and rub off on other bond markets around the world as well.

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

The Nasdaq stopped at the 20dma resistance, however we cannot rule out a 61.8% retracement to 6355 before wave 3 down starts. Not necessary but possible.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Nasdaq, DAX And Karachi Index Technical Analysis

NASDAQ

So while the Dow tested its highs again the Nasdaq was again pulled down as all the FANG stocks gave up. The Nasdaq 100 index broke the 29/06 swing low. The neckline of a h&s broken the pattern points to 5420.

DAX

DAX – the German index has not confirmed a trend reversal on long term charts yet but it did form a doji star on the quarterly chart. That it did so after achieving the target of 5=1 shown by the box makes it an important candle to watch as the trend could be complete here

KARACHI 100

A very steep fall in the Karachi 100, and it is in wave 5/5, but the 5th wave did not achieve the Fibonacci or channel target. So I leave it open as to whether the final top is in or not. While possible ideally it should extend some more.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Canada And Nasdaq – Technical Analysis

CANADA
The most direct effect of falling Oil is on countries like Russian Australia and yes Canada. So Canada has been making a series of lower tops since FEB that may have gone unnoticed but now it is close to breaking the neckline at 15130 below which a steep drop to 14500 could be on the cards.

 

NASDAQ

US indices are diverging with max weakness in the Nasdaq. The chart attached shows that may remain the case near term and the Nasdaq may continue to form wave 2 up for a while. Wave 3 can be presumed only after the lows break. Till then the Dow is holding out.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd