Dow Transport, Dollar Index and Karachi 100 technical analysis

DOW TRANSPORT

Dow Transports – broke the wave 1 low to start wave 3 down to 8820. The 20dma near 9260 should be resistance.

DOLLAR INDEX

The Dollar finally got over the 20dma and now the next resistance is at 94.20. If the downtrend is to continue short term then 94.20 should not be surpassed. Above that consider that a larger degree wave 4 up started as shown. Note that wave 3 can be complete as it has 9 legs [5+4=9 for an impulse], even as IV and II have a very high ratio. If true then wave 4 will retrace to 38.2% at the upper end of the channel and near the wave IV high at 96.25 before wave 5 down starts.

KARACHI 100

Karachi breaks the rising channel trendline for the entire rise since 2009, giving the first sign that a bull market may have ended. The 5th wave was truncated as it did not achieve its full potential at the upper end of the long term channel and that was a surprise. The chart shows wave C down starting for the current leg and the fall so far is in 5 waves down. Any pullback to the broken  trendline near 44000 should face selling pressure and we should head towards C=A near 38200 in the next move down.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Nasdaq, DAX And Karachi Index Technical Analysis

NASDAQ

So while the Dow tested its highs again the Nasdaq was again pulled down as all the FANG stocks gave up. The Nasdaq 100 index broke the 29/06 swing low. The neckline of a h&s broken the pattern points to 5420.

DAX

DAX – the German index has not confirmed a trend reversal on long term charts yet but it did form a doji star on the quarterly chart. That it did so after achieving the target of 5=1 shown by the box makes it an important candle to watch as the trend could be complete here

KARACHI 100

A very steep fall in the Karachi 100, and it is in wave 5/5, but the 5th wave did not achieve the Fibonacci or channel target. So I leave it open as to whether the final top is in or not. While possible ideally it should extend some more.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd