Dow Transports – broke the wave 1 low to start wave 3 down to 8820. The 20dma near 9260 should be resistance.
The Dollar finally got over the 20dma and now the next resistance is at 94.20. If the downtrend is to continue short term then 94.20 should not be surpassed. Above that consider that a larger degree wave 4 up started as shown. Note that wave 3 can be complete as it has 9 legs [5+4=9 for an impulse], even as IV and II have a very high ratio. If true then wave 4 will retrace to 38.2% at the upper end of the channel and near the wave IV high at 96.25 before wave 5 down starts.
Karachi breaks the rising channel trendline for the entire rise since 2009, giving the first sign that a bull market may have ended. The 5th wave was truncated as it did not achieve its full potential at the upper end of the long term channel and that was a surprise. The chart shows wave C down starting for the current leg and the fall so far is in 5 waves down. Any pullback to the broken trendline near 44000 should face selling pressure and we should head towards C=A near 38200 in the next move down.
Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd