Commodity Technical Analysis


No change in trend or view here. A slow decline is on as the dollar rises. So the USDINR can support mcx prices even as comex prices fall but the bias is negative. The 20dma at 29563 should be the key resistance level.  Retracement levels are open at 50-61.8%


Lead Prices started to break down. They may close the month down today. This can mean that longer term we completed a 5 wave advance in a double top as shown on this weekly chart. Major support levels are 144-142 at the lower trendlines and the wave 4 swing low at 131.


A 5 wave rise done for Aluminium the next set of levels are at 135 and 131 as long as we are below the 142 mark. Below 131 we would have to be open to 120 as well.


Copper prices stopped short of a new high, so wave v of 5 was truncated. The first support is at 440 [40dema and trendline] and if that breaks we go to the wave 4 low near 417.


The BSE Metal index has completed a 5 wave advance from the Sept low and possibly from the May bottom. With Base metal prices also giving up expect a deeper cut in metal stocks in the coming weeks as they give back some of the gains. Going back to the wave iv low is normal.


Natural Gas for months is forming a triangle in what could be a right shoulder. The resistance line for the x wave is at 3.08, and the support is at 2.78, If 2.78 breaks we would head to 2.5-2.30.

Gold MCX and Gold Trend Analysis


Prices closed below the 20dma and heading to the 40dema at 29400. If that breaks then the lower Bollinger band is at 29065 as the next support near a 50% retracement of wave 1.


Gold broke below the 20dma and the rising channel for the trend. All the near term tops during 2017 that rose in 3 waves and broke the channel so far were followed by further declines. So far this looks the same. The move from 1204-1357 is 3 waves up and has broken down.

What this can mean is that the entire rise is still corrective in nature and will go back to test 1200 again. The final confirmation level is at 1278 below which the rise cannot convert to an impulse anymore. The 2016-2017 period will end up looking like a triangle when prices test the lower trendline once more. And a breakout above the neckline at 1350 will make the 2013-2017 pattern a inverted head and shoulders

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