Currency Technical Analysis

USDINR

USDINR – retraced 23.6% intraday at 65.29, and we are open to 65.12 at 38.2%, and this is wave ii of a larger move up. Once done wave iii goes to much higher levels; iii=i=66.20. We are in the second week of a 4 week cycle for rising USDINR pair, based on its typical cycle.

EURO

Euro – Wave 2 ended or is a complex pattern. So either wave 1 of 3 is forming or an x wave. 61.8% at 1.88 is the first resistance at 61.8% followed by 78.6% at 1.198. The near term trend is up for the Euro then

USDINR, USDGBP And Euro Technical Analysis

USDINR

USDINR – has retraced 66% of the initial rally. wave I therefore think it is wave i of iii subdividing. iii=i would point to 66.45 or higher if extended. Today prices broke out of the downtrending line and closed above the 20dma so that was a positive sign.

USDGBP

USDGBP – wave iii up next points to 0.787 with support at 0.757.

EURO

The Euro hourly chart shows a flag and a-b-c rise. The structure of wave c is not clear, so it is over or a few more squiggles or attempts at the upper channel can also occur. Once we break the flag however the move should be in wave 3 down to new lows

The Euro hourly chart shows a flag and a-b-c rise. The structure of wave c is not clear, so it is over or a few more squiggles or attempts at the upper channel can also occur. Once we break the flag however the move should be in wave 3 down to new lows.

Nasdaq, Brazil, EURO, DAX & S&P 500 Technical Analysis

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Negative divergences continue on the weekly momentum for the Nasdaq that keeps bouncing back from the 20wma support [red average], The bands are narrow and either prices can expand the bands again by breakout out upwards or else we should at least pull back to the lower Bollinger band near 6041 [Upper end 6472]

BRAZIL

Brazil is the big beneficiary of the falling dollar. The equity market there was in a bearish trend from 2010-2016 when the dollar was rising. Now it is just the opposite. Wave 2 circle did not retrace much as I was anticipating and now wave 3 circle points to 11500 odd. This is a bull market. The Indian market does not relate with this at all.

EURO

During the last week the Euro fell in 3 waves and that leaves open one last alternate that wave 5 is still forming as a triangle. Wave e of 5 can push up to 1.21 a last time.

DAX

I wrote some time back that the DAX index is a leading diagonal in wave 1. Since then we are waiting for wave 2 to complete. Wave 2 is taking the shape of an expanded flat. Wave c of 2 up is now forming and c is now =161.8 times wave a, so the Fibonacci projection has been achieved. Wave wise wave c has to be 5 waves and might need one more up down sequence to complete. After that we can expect a major 3rd wave decline in European stocks or at least the DAX as a leading indicator.

S&P 500

S&P 500 is back at the upper end of the long term channel from 2009, at 2500. The trendline of the highs from June to August goes higher to 2522.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Bank Nifty & Euro Technical Analysis

Bank Nifty

The hourly chart of the bank nifty futures this morning shows that mostly we will head to 24580 completing a triangle before we see lower prices.

Euro

Euro is bouncing back in minor wave b and wave c down should be next. Prices should go back to 1.166 or lower.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

EURO, EURINR and USDINR Currency Technical Analysis

EURO

The Euro completed wave 3 up from the Jan 2017 bottom. Draw a trendline of the highs and project a reverse channel down for wave 4 potential. Wave 4 goes either to the wave 4 of lower degree near 1.166 or the lower end of the channel at 1.147 and rising. It can take up to a month to develop. Wave 4 can also be a time consuming triangle that does not go down as much but in a range till it touches the lower channel line that is rising.

EURINR

EURINR – Against my earlier count that wave 5 was complete it probably is doing that now. Prices have moved up in a channel and we maybe due for the first serious set back for the EURINR since it started the move up. This 5 wave rise should be wave 1 of a long term bull market and the coming correction wave 2 down. 23.6% retracement at 75 and 38.2% at 73.7 are the first two support levels to watch.

USDINR

USDINR retraced 61.8% in minor wave ii down at 63.85 and is finding support there. Holding this wave iii=i points to 64.60 next on the way up in what should develop as an impulse.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Euro, S&P 500, USDJPY, NYSE Composite & US 30 Years T Bonds Analysis

USDJPY

USDJPY – broke the trendline of the previous lows and may have started the next major leg lower. Wave iii down would point to 106.47 and resistance near 110.90

S&P 500

The first  waves of a decline appear to be complete on the S&P, ideally the next move should be wave iii down towards the 2407 swing low, near the wave iv mark. 2470 is the 20dma resistance.

US 30 Years Treasury Bonds

US Treasury bonds sold off from the 61.8% mark and the upper end of a flag. Ideally wave II is complete and wave III down unfolds which should see bond yields spike up in the coming weeks.

EURO

Making a near term change to my view on the Euro based on what I have already said about the dollar going lower. The 20dma support held and weekly charts align with this. Wave v of 3 may still be developing and should push the Euro higher closer to the 1.20 mark. After that we may look for a wave 4 dip.

 

NYSE Composite

The NYSE composite is a very different index of US stocks. It sold off this week from the upper end of a parallel channel of the lows for the 6 year period. Prices have been pushing against the smaller green channel since 2016 for months now and in doing so have reached the while channel before the decline. The very small blue channel for the last few months was broken and so that could at least start a move to the lower end of the green channel.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Brazil, Euro And Dollar Index Technical Analysis

Brazil – Wave 5 ended in FEB. We are now in the third leg, wave Y, which is a 3 wave decline marked as A-B-C and wave B mostly completed at the upper Bollinger band in a small 5 wave advance [wave c of B], so wave C down can go to 56000-55800 if C=A

 

DOLLAR INDEX

Wave 4 up in the dollar is still not complete. This especially as the Euro bullish sentiment reached a multi year record of nearly 93%. This reading needs to cool off more and the dollar should at least move up in wave c of 4 before we see the decline resume. 95.225 was the recent low and till it holds this is the view.

EURO

The Euro This morning on the hourly chart shows a clear 5 wave decline in wave A, and a bounce back which is mostly B. 38.2% at 1.138 or 61.8% at 1.14 may be achieved in wave B after which wave C can drop to 1.125 or as far as 1.11. The 5 wave decline should mean that the 5 wave rise from the April low is complete and being corrected. The first pull back in a larger up trend.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd