US Dollar V/s Leading Currencies – Technical Analysis

USDAUD

USDAUD completed a wave 2 correction and wave 3 up should have startded. 3=1 points to 1.33 next with support near 1.26

USDCAD

USDCAD – is due to start wave iii up with iii=i pointint to 1.30, support at 1.25

USDINR

The monthly candles for USDINR show a engulfing bull pattern. The close for the month was above the previous bear pattern that had a high of 65. So 65 is an important pivot. The next move up should be seeing us up to 67 or the previous high at 68.87

USDZAR

USDZAR – or the South African Rand, wave ii pullback appears complete and wave iii up should be next. iii=i is at 14.40

Dollar Index, USDTWD and USDSGD Technical Analysis

Dollar Index

The first five wave rise in the dollar to 94.10 about to complete.

USDTWD

The Taiwan Dollar – early days of forming a base and recovering from the lows. An X wave or a new rally? Both odds are open. Upper end of the falling channel is at 31.27 as the resistance to any X wave move up. A 5 wave rise and 3 wave correction long term are done though so odds should favour another impulse wave up.

USDSGD

USDSGD closed positive for the last two months – wave 3 of larger degree appears due to start on the monthly chart. If not at least a near term rally in the pair. Next resistance is at 1.38 and 61.8% retracement is at 1.41.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Dow Transport, Dollar Index and Karachi 100 technical analysis

DOW TRANSPORT

Dow Transports – broke the wave 1 low to start wave 3 down to 8820. The 20dma near 9260 should be resistance.

DOLLAR INDEX

The Dollar finally got over the 20dma and now the next resistance is at 94.20. If the downtrend is to continue short term then 94.20 should not be surpassed. Above that consider that a larger degree wave 4 up started as shown. Note that wave 3 can be complete as it has 9 legs [5+4=9 for an impulse], even as IV and II have a very high ratio. If true then wave 4 will retrace to 38.2% at the upper end of the channel and near the wave IV high at 96.25 before wave 5 down starts.

KARACHI 100

Karachi breaks the rising channel trendline for the entire rise since 2009, giving the first sign that a bull market may have ended. The 5th wave was truncated as it did not achieve its full potential at the upper end of the long term channel and that was a surprise. The chart shows wave C down starting for the current leg and the fall so far is in 5 waves down. Any pullback to the broken  trendline near 44000 should face selling pressure and we should head towards C=A near 38200 in the next move down.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Brazil, Euro And Dollar Index Technical Analysis

Brazil – Wave 5 ended in FEB. We are now in the third leg, wave Y, which is a 3 wave decline marked as A-B-C and wave B mostly completed at the upper Bollinger band in a small 5 wave advance [wave c of B], so wave C down can go to 56000-55800 if C=A

 

DOLLAR INDEX

Wave 4 up in the dollar is still not complete. This especially as the Euro bullish sentiment reached a multi year record of nearly 93%. This reading needs to cool off more and the dollar should at least move up in wave c of 4 before we see the decline resume. 95.225 was the recent low and till it holds this is the view.

EURO

The Euro This morning on the hourly chart shows a clear 5 wave decline in wave A, and a bounce back which is mostly B. 38.2% at 1.138 or 61.8% at 1.14 may be achieved in wave B after which wave C can drop to 1.125 or as far as 1.11. The 5 wave decline should mean that the 5 wave rise from the April low is complete and being corrected. The first pull back in a larger up trend.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Currency And Dollar – Technical Analysis

USDBRL

Time to consider the bull case for the USDBRL again. The real has taken support on its long term trendline and started to push higher. The wave count longer term is indicative of a 5th wave that can go to a new high. 3.16 is the lower end of the channel that is acting as the pivot for the trend. 4.11 is the mid channel level.

Dollar Index

The dollar index took support on the 20dma at 97.07 and should be heading higher towards the 38.2% retracement mark at 98.19

USDINR

USDINR – came very close to the reverse channel. That means take a line of the tops and then take a parallel trendline and put it to the lows. That was at 63.50. The upper end of the channel is at 90, 5=1 is at 85. So the risk reward favors USDINR bulls. I have been marking the rise from the 2008 low as a impulse long term and we should be about to start wave 5 of the move next based on channels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Dollar Index and USD GBP – Technical Analysis

Dollar Index

On the weekly charts the dollar index retraced 61.8% of the entire previous advance. Also at the point marked 3 sentiment was down to 5% bullish only. Now it is possible to mark the fall as a 5 wave decline except that wave 5 is too short and truncated. That I did not expect. However as we have moved past 97, it is a possible outcome. What this would mean is that we retrace some portion of this 5 wave fall before another decline can occur. 98 would be the first immediate hurdle. 98.23 is 38.2% of the 5 wave decline. A larger retracement would be 61.8% at 99.50. There is reason to be open to some bounce back in the dollar before another wave down starts till 96.455 holds.

USDGBP

The one currency supporting the strong dollar thesis has been the Pound. USDGBP has still to complete a 5th wave on the quarterly chart and after the 38.2% retracement and the elections the stage maybe set up. Wave 5 up for the contracct would go up to 0.90 based on 5=1

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity, Dollar, US 10 Years Treasury Notes and Currency – Technical Analysis

US 10 Years T Notes

No change here – the rising 10 year notes, meaning lower US yields continue to indicate the short term risk off mode of US markets.

CRB Index

Simple progression for the CRB index – 5 waves up and then a 61.8% retracement. Next wave iii up should start.

USDCNY

I have flipped from expecting a smaller degree 4th wave or larger degree 4th wave on this contract. This week break of the rising channel from the 2015 low should mean that it is a larger degree wave 4. EWI thinks the larger 3 wave rise is A-B-C, but I keeping the fall a 4th wave till the 23.6% retracement mark near 6.75. Will wave 4 end in A-B-C as shown or continue to form a triangle over many months? We will see. Below 6.75 it would be better to consider more bearish options on the USDCNY.

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index made a new low as it starts wave v of 3 down towards 95. The falling dollar is gathering momentum against all odds. The sentiment that was an extreme 5% bullish went back to 14% based on the Daily Sentiment index. The pace of the fall might accelerate from here once 96.50 breaks. We should be open to targets overshooting quickly as well. In fact if any this one macro trend could end up being the reason that the RBI actually cuts interest rates this week. To keep the rupee from getting too strong. Will be interesting to see what they do and why this week given the mix of diverging factors at work.

Euro

Reviewing the Monthly charts today as we ended the Month yesterday. The Euro closed well above the 20 month average of 1.094 which is now a major support or pivot for the trend. This after 2 positive divergences in the RSI indicator between 2015-2016. The next hurdle is the 40 month average near 1.15.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd