Nasdaq, Brazil, EURO, DAX & S&P 500 Technical Analysis

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Negative divergences continue on the weekly momentum for the Nasdaq that keeps bouncing back from the 20wma support [red average], The bands are narrow and either prices can expand the bands again by breakout out upwards or else we should at least pull back to the lower Bollinger band near 6041 [Upper end 6472]

BRAZIL

Brazil is the big beneficiary of the falling dollar. The equity market there was in a bearish trend from 2010-2016 when the dollar was rising. Now it is just the opposite. Wave 2 circle did not retrace much as I was anticipating and now wave 3 circle points to 11500 odd. This is a bull market. The Indian market does not relate with this at all.

EURO

During the last week the Euro fell in 3 waves and that leaves open one last alternate that wave 5 is still forming as a triangle. Wave e of 5 can push up to 1.21 a last time.

DAX

I wrote some time back that the DAX index is a leading diagonal in wave 1. Since then we are waiting for wave 2 to complete. Wave 2 is taking the shape of an expanded flat. Wave c of 2 up is now forming and c is now =161.8 times wave a, so the Fibonacci projection has been achieved. Wave wise wave c has to be 5 waves and might need one more up down sequence to complete. After that we can expect a major 3rd wave decline in European stocks or at least the DAX as a leading indicator.

S&P 500

S&P 500 is back at the upper end of the long term channel from 2009, at 2500. The trendline of the highs from June to August goes higher to 2522.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Technical Analysis of CRB Index, DOW, NASDAQ, BSE 200 And DAX

CRB Index
The CRB Index of commodities is now tracking higher with Oil and base metals. Only the PMs are lagging behind. While it is possible to imagine that Crude is still in wave B as a triangle, the CRB index that mostly reflects energy looks like it maybe done. The recent bottom involved a 66% retracement in price [blue line] and a weekly RSI of 29. Wave C up should not only carry to the wave A high but go past the grey trendline that marks the 2009 lows to rule out the case for new lows first in the index and oil as some are anticipating. My markings can change to 1-2-3 but even conservatively we should go in wave C to the upper end of the channel near 215 [current 178]

BSE 200

Is it possible to count the rise from 2009 as 5 waves? I usually take 2008-2013 as a triangle. But if I go by all the impulse wave markings of the street for each rally since 2009 it can be done as 9 legs are complete. In 2015 when I called the market top I used the Arithmetic scale chart of the BSE 200 or broader indices to project that the upper end of the channel was reached and we may go to the lower end. After 12 months down a move up started that after 2 years and adding 4 more waves [yellow extention] has brought us back to the upper end of the channel on the arithmetic scale. So it is a key resistance zone as much as given the number of waves completing the blow markings show we have 5+4=9 waves that can be marked as complete 5 waves with a 3rd wave extended for the long term 5th wave [circle]. Let us see what unfolds here.

NASDAQ 100

The Nasdaq 100, a year back among the many alternates I considered was a triangle for 2015-2016. Going back to that it changes the outlook for the Nasdaq near term. Wave 5 up would have only started. The upper trendline of the highs goes to 6080-6100.

DOW

Dow – wave 5 is extending, we are now in wave v of 5 and that is also subdividing. 21340 is the lower trendline and till it does not break we can go to 21800.

DAX – leading the way for Europe

Unlike US stocks that are stretching out in wave 5 higher, the European indices have 5 wave declines. It shows up very clearly in the German DAX. It recently bounced back in 3 waves to almost 61.8%. Yesterday it fell below the b wave low confirming that the bounce was corrective and maybe wave 3 down to  12060

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Nasdaq, DAX And Karachi Index Technical Analysis

NASDAQ

So while the Dow tested its highs again the Nasdaq was again pulled down as all the FANG stocks gave up. The Nasdaq 100 index broke the 29/06 swing low. The neckline of a h&s broken the pattern points to 5420.

DAX

DAX – the German index has not confirmed a trend reversal on long term charts yet but it did form a doji star on the quarterly chart. That it did so after achieving the target of 5=1 shown by the box makes it an important candle to watch as the trend could be complete here

KARACHI 100

A very steep fall in the Karachi 100, and it is in wave 5/5, but the 5th wave did not achieve the Fibonacci or channel target. So I leave it open as to whether the final top is in or not. While possible ideally it should extend some more.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd