Currency Technical Analysis

USDINR

USDINR – retraced 23.6% intraday at 65.29, and we are open to 65.12 at 38.2%, and this is wave ii of a larger move up. Once done wave iii goes to much higher levels; iii=i=66.20. We are in the second week of a 4 week cycle for rising USDINR pair, based on its typical cycle.

EURO

Euro – Wave 2 ended or is a complex pattern. So either wave 1 of 3 is forming or an x wave. 61.8% at 1.88 is the first resistance at 61.8% followed by 78.6% at 1.198. The near term trend is up for the Euro then

Currency Technical Analysis

EURO

1.152 and 1.13 are the next two fibonacci projections for the Euro on the way down. the trend down should resume and the up move yesterday maybe almost done.

USDJPY

USDJPY support is at 112.90, and heading in wave iii towards 117.95

USDINR

USDINR – two major near term support levels coming up. 61.8% at 64.59, and the 20wma at 64.45. Holding these two the next wave up to above 66 should start.

EURINR

EURINR – is in decline with the Euro and the 38.2% retracement is at 74.16 and 50% retracement is at 72.92.

Currency Technical Analysis

USDINR

USDINR broken the May 2017 low of 63.98 [spot]. Doing so the fall in USDINR from the 68.87 high in Nov is 5 waves down. This changes the wave counts longer term and am going with the alternate that I did not consider earlier. I have been trying for a while to complete the 5th wave of the rise from the 2011 bottom. That entire rise from 45-69 then would be wave 3 circle. But here I am thinking maybe not. Maybe this whole consolidation from 69 in 2013 when RR came into the RBI to date is wave 4 and wave 5 of 3 has still to form. Wave 4 may end near 63 or might continue to develop into a triangle for the rest of the year before wave 5 starts. The reverse channel at 63 is also good reason to consider a low near 63. I will continue to explore what should be the proper wave count for this whole period, but the long term trend is up and from near 63-62.80 we should start another move up for USDINR

EURO

The Euro is pushing at the upper channel line and overdue for a decline in wave 4 back down to the lower channel line near 1.15

EURINR

EURINR would complete its first wave up at larger degree and the next dip would be wave 2 of larger degree. Upper channel line at 76.17 and lower one at 74

US 10 Years T Notes

US T notes taking longer to sell off. Alternately they are forming a flag. Wave b bottomed at 61.8% retracement and wave c up might push higher before wave iii down starts.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Currencies Technical Analysis

EUR INR

The EURINR would also complete 5 wave rise from the April low if the Euro ends a third wave rally att this level. A 38.2% retracement to 72.50 is normal

USD GBP

USDGBP – has been correcting slowly for long, as long as I have maintained that wave 5 up is next and should develop. The change is from the yellow smaller triangle I considered earlier to the larger blue falling triangle in wave 4 that maybe completing. The USDGBP should be bottoming near or above 0.758. Breakout from the triangle is above 0.782. And wave 5 has a longer term target near the upper channel and 5=1 at 0.90

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Currency And US 30 Year Treasury Bonds Technical Analysis

While the 10 year has already broken the rising channel 2 days ago the 30 year bonds are now at the rising trendline near 152. So a further decline in the bond market will get this second confirmation of a break down in the bond market. We would be at the start of a 3rd wave down in US bonds. [We have discussed this scenario and its impact in this months Long short report.]

USDCAD

USDCAD – the last post identified the Wave B high at 61.8%. From there we have a 5 wave decline so the down trend is established. We may get the first retracement of the fall when the 5 wave decline completes but the larger trend down will resume again, till C=A is achieved. The RSI is getting oversold. 1.33 near the wave 4 high would be a resistance level during a counter trend move up. After that we may head to 1.25 in wave 3 of C.

EURO

The euro/dollar did not achieve 1.15 and it is hard to say yet that prices have started wave 2 down. When they do we get a retracement of the entire 5 wave rise back to the wave 4 low near 1.11. Till then it is open to interpretation. But the overall picture is clear, that we are ending a 5 wave rise and due for retracement before a larger rally resumes

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity Technical Analysis

Copper

Copper Quarterly momentum crossed over to the buy side as a positive indication. We still have to get over the quarterly averages at 2.73 and 2.84 for a larger move to 3.80 to develop.

Gold

Gold broke the neckline of the last several months at 1230$. The neckline measurement target coincides with the 78.6% retracement near 1160. However the rising trendline from the 2015 Dec bottom is at 1173. 61.8% is at 1188. That gives us two levels to watch for oversold readings and a trend reversal to capture the bottom in gold. 1188 and 1172-1160. It is normal for wave E to either be short or go below the lower line [causing a selling exhaustion] before turning around. Right now staying below 1232 is bearish near term.

Soy Meal CBT

Soy Meal prices made a double bottom near 292$, and broke out of the falling trendine for wave of 2. A bottom maybe now in place for a larger 3rd wave up to start. Initial hurdle is 330 at 61.8% of Y. Then the X at 354 after that we should be heading to a new high above 432.Failure to go above 330 and 354 can keep us in wave 2 by some alternate patters.

Silver

Silver hit the 20dma resistance at 16.90 and sold off. Staying below this level Silver would be in wave iii down to 15.52

Wheat CBT

After being bullish global wheat prices in my last update I was negative as prices reacted from the falling channel of the last few years. But we now have a breakout so it is best to stick to the original outlook. Wheat CBT should be in wave 3/3 up now. Staying above 470 the trend is up and the next two swing resistance levels are 524 and 615. The monthly Bollinger band is also near 500. So getting past the 500-524 range would expand volatility meaningfully.

Sugar CSCE

The relentless fall in global sugar may have ended. Wave v of C down was forming for a while and extending. Now it counts as a completed 5 wave decline and yesterday’s bounce gets the RSI out of oversold territory. The recent low is near the 2016 bottom seen in sugar so it is a good level to hold near 12.5$. This is also wave 2 down for the longer term. The next move up should mark the start of a 3rd wave advance in global sugar prices.

Coffee CSCE

Coffee prices bounced back from the oversold territory, meaning an RSI of below 30 on both the daily and weekly charts. The near term a falling trendline from the wave d high is at 131, so a move above 131 should be a final confirmation of a trend reversal. The quarterly chart below shows the big picture. The development of a triangle from 2010 onwards which is mostly wave B, and sets it up for wave C up a major new bull move for Coffee prices. Lets get a little imaginative here. If C=A is achieved over 5 years Coffee prices go to 700 from 125 now. That is quite crazy. The triangle breakout will be above 168. Note it is also possible that prices remain within the triangle for now and only go to 168 to come back to 120 again. So unless we breakout the triangle is still forming. For the year ahead however a move to 168 can be seen.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

Currency And Dollar – Technical Analysis

USDBRL

Time to consider the bull case for the USDBRL again. The real has taken support on its long term trendline and started to push higher. The wave count longer term is indicative of a 5th wave that can go to a new high. 3.16 is the lower end of the channel that is acting as the pivot for the trend. 4.11 is the mid channel level.

Dollar Index

The dollar index took support on the 20dma at 97.07 and should be heading higher towards the 38.2% retracement mark at 98.19

USDINR

USDINR – came very close to the reverse channel. That means take a line of the tops and then take a parallel trendline and put it to the lows. That was at 63.50. The upper end of the channel is at 90, 5=1 is at 85. So the risk reward favors USDINR bulls. I have been marking the rise from the 2008 low as a impulse long term and we should be about to start wave 5 of the move next based on channels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Currency – Technical Analysis

EURO

Euro – c=a points to 1.105 and 38.2% retracement is at 1.102, the trend should still be lower.

 

USDJPY

USDJPY should continue higher in wave c up to 115. Support is near 110.60

USDGBP

USDGBP – took support on the averages and has mostly started wave 5 up. Support is near 0.783 amd 0.777 and we should be heading to test 0.808 swing high next and eventually the wave 3 high at 0.846

USDCNY

USDCNY – corrected in 3 waves in what might be a 4th wave correction in a channel. Wave 5 up could start from 6.78. I cannot rule out a dip to 6.76, while non needed, and it would be a 38.2% retracement of wave 3. 5=1 pionts to 7.04 in wave 5 up. 6.892 resistance from the falling channel where we would have to breakout for higher levels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Commodity, Dollar, US 10 Years Treasury Notes and Currency – Technical Analysis

US 10 Years T Notes

No change here – the rising 10 year notes, meaning lower US yields continue to indicate the short term risk off mode of US markets.

CRB Index

Simple progression for the CRB index – 5 waves up and then a 61.8% retracement. Next wave iii up should start.

USDCNY

I have flipped from expecting a smaller degree 4th wave or larger degree 4th wave on this contract. This week break of the rising channel from the 2015 low should mean that it is a larger degree wave 4. EWI thinks the larger 3 wave rise is A-B-C, but I keeping the fall a 4th wave till the 23.6% retracement mark near 6.75. Will wave 4 end in A-B-C as shown or continue to form a triangle over many months? We will see. Below 6.75 it would be better to consider more bearish options on the USDCNY.

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index made a new low as it starts wave v of 3 down towards 95. The falling dollar is gathering momentum against all odds. The sentiment that was an extreme 5% bullish went back to 14% based on the Daily Sentiment index. The pace of the fall might accelerate from here once 96.50 breaks. We should be open to targets overshooting quickly as well. In fact if any this one macro trend could end up being the reason that the RBI actually cuts interest rates this week. To keep the rupee from getting too strong. Will be interesting to see what they do and why this week given the mix of diverging factors at work.

Euro

Reviewing the Monthly charts today as we ended the Month yesterday. The Euro closed well above the 20 month average of 1.094 which is now a major support or pivot for the trend. This after 2 positive divergences in the RSI indicator between 2015-2016. The next hurdle is the 40 month average near 1.15.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd