Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD MCX Daily

No change in trend or view here. A slow decline is on as the dollar rises. So the USDINR can support mcx prices even as comex prices fall but the bias is negative. The 20dma at 29563 should be the key resistance level.  Retracement levels are open at 50-61.8%

LEAD MCX

Lead Prices started to break down. They may close the month down today. This can mean that longer term we completed a 5 wave advance in a double top as shown on this weekly chart. Major support levels are 144-142 at the lower trendlines and the wave 4 swing low at 131.

ALUMINIUM MCX

A 5 wave rise done for Aluminium the next set of levels are at 135 and 131 as long as we are below the 142 mark. Below 131 we would have to be open to 120 as well.

COPPER MCX

Copper prices stopped short of a new high, so wave v of 5 was truncated. The first support is at 440 [40dema and trendline] and if that breaks we go to the wave 4 low near 417.

BSE METALS

The BSE Metal index has completed a 5 wave advance from the Sept low and possibly from the May bottom. With Base metal prices also giving up expect a deeper cut in metal stocks in the coming weeks as they give back some of the gains. Going back to the wave iv low is normal.

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas for months is forming a triangle in what could be a right shoulder. The resistance line for the x wave is at 3.08, and the support is at 2.78, If 2.78 breaks we would head to 2.5-2.30.

Gold, Silver and Copper Technical Analysis

Silver MCX

Silver is in wave c down and c=a can point to 37608. The recent high for wave b is at 40632. Wave c may also extend lower to the 2 year trendline support that is closer to 36026. Wave c will be a 5 wave decline so till 5 waves down do not complete the move is not complete.

Copper MCX

Copper Mcx started minor wave v of 5 as a final push higher to a new high above the 466 high. Hard to put a number on how far it should go. But wave v of 5 should be final move for the last metal in the sector making a 5 wave advance.

GOLD Daily MCX

Gold was down and managed to push the daily momentum into sell mode. Gold Mcx closed very near the 40dema at 29571, below which gold should head to the lower Bollinger band at 29294. On weekly charts the 20/40 day averages are near 29090 as the next important support level. The weekly momentum also crossed over to the sell side as gold closed down for the week.

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

SILVER MCX

Silver prices started to bounce back along with gold in wave b of a decline. Wave b should be a retracement of the fall that can test the previous swing high of the 20dma. These are at 40145 and 40595. Wave c down should eventually carry us closer to 36000

GOLD

Gold retraced 61.8% of the entire advance seen from Jul-Sep 2017. The rise was corrective in nature and therefore the retracement should not mark a major bottom. But a short term low may finally be in place. A bounce back to the averages or the previous swing high cannot be ruled out. 1297-1313, is what we are looking at on the upside before the move down resumes.

CRUDE

Crude has fallen in 5 waves from the recent high and is mostly wave a of E down. Not certainly complete yet. 49.42 and 48.15 are the next two support levels.

COPPER

Wave iv of 5 complete wave v of 5 in a final push up should test the 3.16 high. 2.97 is the support.

LEAD MCX

Lead MCX prices completed a 5 wave advance near the upper end of a rising channel. So expect a correction retracement or consolidation to follow. Upside maybe limited near term above 171.10, the high made.

ALUMINIUM MCX

Aluminium MCX took support on the 20dma at 136 and wave iii of 5 can go up to 146

ZINC MCX

Zinc completed a 5 wave advance short of the upper channel  at 221. Unless we are extending beyond that the move maybe complete and we could see a fresh correction or consolidation here on. Upside maybe limited. A retracement of the entire 5 wave advance is also not ruled out but we need to see the initial waves develop before judging the pattern. The lower end of the channel at 201 is the first support. The wave 4 low at 190 a major support.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

CRUDE MCX

Crude prices on Mcx would be in a triangle in wave B. The triangle started to form from the second quarter of 2016. Wave E of B is the final leg down for the triangle from the upper end near 3480 to the lower end near 2790 this should be the final leg of the consolidation phase before we make it to a higher ground.

GOLD

The internal wave count of the fall for gold has now become complex and so it is best to mark it overall as W. An bounce back will be an X wave.

LEAD & ALUMINIMUM

MCX was closed yesterday so using the CFD futures. Metals are mixed up with Lead [below] and Zinc in wave v of a rise, while Nickel Copper and Aluminium [below], at near term supports and bouncing up. So if 2080$ holds then we may go higher on Aluminium, but Lead is in wave v and can turn into a correction anytime.

CRUDE

I discussed the downside risk to crude Medium term yesterday however near term if the 50.20 support [20dma] holds, and maintains the rising channel shown on this chart, maybe wave v of C up is still on the cards. The wave i high of 49.42 has not overlapped and till that happens wave v can be kept open. Wave v of C then can still make an attempt at 53$.

COPPER MCX

Copper prices are lagging but slowly moving higher. The recent fall was 7 legs and a corrective decline. So one more move to the highs is possible in wave 5 of the rise. 429-425 are supports, and 451 near the wave 3 high or 465 to the upper channel line again are open. The Bollinger band at 445 would be an interim resistance.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

ALIMINIUM MCX

Aluminium MCX prices achieved 5=1 on this chart and closed down. Is wave 5 over? It maybe work considering if this 5 wave move can be retraced given that the trendline of the highs since 2010 at 141 and the rising channel at 143 are close. Consider yesterdays high at 141.40 as important till clearly taken out.

PALLADIUM

Palladium prices stopped at the trendline of the highs from 2010 and this could mark an important resistance or top. Without putting a number on the downside implications the trend may turn down from here [980].

COPPER

The short term decline in copper is looking like 5 waves down, meaning that it is only wave a of a correction. This raises the odds that the 5 wave advance from 2016 is complete and a more meaningful pullback near term can unfold. 2.875 is the first key support. 3.03 is resistance

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis And Trends

ZINC

Zinc Mcx did not break the 191 support and staying above it keeps open the option of the rally in zinc resuming. The upper end of the channel is at 217 for wave 5 up.

 

LEAD MCX

Complexity can be baffling at times. So after many weeks of complex moved Lead prices are moving up again. This requires serious consideration. So we have retraced 61.8% in what could be wave 2 as a complex pattern till we hold the recent 143 support. From here 3=1 can project up to 174 in wave 3 up.

SILVER

Silver immediate support at 17.50$, a close below which opens up 17.25 and 16.80 below that.

CRUDE MCX

Crude MCX is testing the July high of 3234, above which prices can stretch to the upper end of the rising channel at 3421. Note if we make new highs we are still in wave D and the marking of D will shift from July to the current move up where it completes. 61.58% of the previous decline is at 3380 [blue line].

COPPER MCX

Copper Mcx – 38.2% retracement done in 3 waves with support at the 40dema and the recent low at 417, we can now start wave 5 up to retest the recent high of 451.

ALUMINIUM MCX

Aluminium Mcx Completed a 3 wave correction in a channel to the lower Bollinger band at 131 as the key support. Wave 5 could start anytime. 138 and 143 are two Fibonacci projections for wave 5 up based on the ratio analysis of the move so far. 20dma at 133.63 is the first resistance followed by the wave 3 high at 136.20.

COFFEE CSCE

International Coffee prices are back on track with wave 3 up starting and should now attempt to breakout of the triangle upside at 158

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Commodity Technical Analysis

Aluninium MCX

Aluminium MCX prices attempted to go above 135 but have fallen back with a negative divergence on the RSI. The structure of the correction is probably more complex like an expanded flat, and we could see a dip to 129-128 range, the next support range.

Zinc MCX

Zinc prices achieved equality to the July July move. In doing so the last 6 days move is a 3 wave structure. So it is best classified as an expanded flat that can see a dip in wave c down to 191-90 as the next support zone.

GOLD

Gold is making higher tops and bottoms and the last swing low is at 1300 holding which the trend does not change. The only EW botheration is that all the moves up are overlapped. Yes it can eventually lead to multiple extentions and then we would be beyond 1500 in this move itself. But till we get a non overlapping leg watch the 1300 support as key, it is a little far, you may trail with the 20dma that is also at 1300 and rising. Last year when prices rose after a false break below the yellow neckline the overlapping move up failed to continue, lets hope that does not repeat as we get closer to the 2016 top at 1375.

SOY MEAL CBT

Soy Meal prices reached the lower end of a triangular support near 290 and started moving higher. Wave Z could be finally complete and wave 3 of larger degree could unfold for Soy prices after a long consolidation in wave 2. The upper end of the triangle is at 332 for a breakout.

Sugar NCDEX

Domestic sugar prices opened lower even as global sugar prices are showing signs of near term strength returning. However local prices have not followed global prices of late and therefore there is room to wait and watch the pattern in local prices which is still showing weakness ahead in wave C down.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity Technical Updates Gold, Silver, Nickel, Copper, Crude MCX and more

GOLD

Gold weekly charts show that we closed down for the week. And did so at the 1300 level a third time raising the chances of a triple top. Odds go up that staying below 1300 we go back lower towards the lower end of the triangle near 1186. Short term support to watch is 1269 a and after that 1251

SILVER

Silver prices facing resistance at the 61.8% retracement of the previous decline from April to July. The level is 17.25. If prices do not go above this mark then they may enter a fresh corrective phase down from here. 16.69 is the first support at the 20dma.

COPPER

Copper – the trendline of the last two highs rising to 3.02$ is an important short term resistance level from where prices can react short term. So keep a watch on it. This is a weekly chart.

CRUDE MCX

Crude broke below the rising trendline from the June bottom. MCX prices may go back to test the neckline support at 2745. Resistance is near 3100

Nickel MCX

Nickel bounced back in wave b of iv. A reverse parallel channel shows support at 655-652 and the upside in wave v from there at 725 or higher if it extends

 

SUGAR CSCE

Sugar – The recent rise in Sugar prices ended in some kind of triangular structure and the decline is getting impulsive. This makes me look at the next best alternate for Sugar prices. This shows that the fall is wave 5 and that is not good news on the big picture view that I have backed for long. 11.43$ is the current target for wave 5 based on 5=1. But we should keep it open for prices to extend to the lower channel and neckline near 10.50 as well.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

COPPER

Copper could pull back to the 20dma at 2.83, and if it closes below that then take it seriously for a possible deeper set back

LEAD MCX

Lead prices sold off and did not continue as expected. The daily momentum crossed over to the sell side. Chances are that wave III did not take off, and a close below 147.54 would indicate that we are again in a correction and may retest 140 or lower.

ZINC MCX

Zinc prices recently paused near a key Fibonacci resistance where b=138.2% of a, as shown. If the recent high is surpassed then we continue higher in wave iii to levels discussed before. Failure however would trigger an expanded flat set up where wave c at 173 maybe seen in a decline. In an expanded flat wave b goes higher than the top and c goes lower in a ratio of 161.8% of a.

CRUDE

Crude fell below the level discussed day before. The implications are that the entire rise from the June bottom is corrective. The rising trendline on the chart at 47.10 is the last support below which we should be in wave E down.

Failure to go above the 61.8% mark means that we may now be forming wave E of a running triangle. Wave E can either test the neckline at 42.80 and bottom there or maybe even break below it. If 42 is broken then maybe even a alternate pattern will develop with a dip to the 61.8% retracement mark near 37.3. Ideally we should not break 42.

GOLD

Gold – sold off in two days again from the upper end of the rising channel and the 1300 mark for a third time. The daily momentum rolled over to the sell side. so unless we see a fresh pick up in gold maybe it will repeat the same pattern. 1261 is the trendline support a break of which will confirm that we are heading back to 1206 nekline

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

A series of corrective moves in gold, a move below the rising channel supporting prices for the last few weeks would change trend and that lower line is at 1262$.

SOY MEAL CBT

Soy Meal – completing a-b-c down wave 2 at 66% retracement at 307 might be done and wave 3 up to 356$ should be next.

Nickel MCX

Nickel Mcx is in wave v of iii. Once complete prices could correct somewhat in wave iv. The rise can also be marked as a-b-c complete, in which the trend can reverse down. So near term watch out for what Nickel does before a further call on it. First support will be near the 20dma at 630 and rising.

 

CRB Index

CRB index has an overlapping structure that can be a leading diagonal in wave A. So wave B down may occur as the momentum crossed back to the sell side. Watch if the lower trendline breaks. Could indicate near term weakness for commodities. While the rise can also be a wedge it appears like a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern.

Silver

Silver is at the trendline of the previous two tops down to 16.92 as a key resistance or breakout level.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd