BSE FMCG Index Technical Anaysis

The FMCG index has been in wave 5 long term since 2009 and it has been an extended move. It did not stop at 5=1 [circle], it did not stop at the upper end of the rising channel. The momentum has been slowing down since it hit the upper line. Two possible outcomes exist. First and primary that we are in wave IV of 5 up that itself fits a channel. A move to the lower end of the channel would complete wave IV and then wave V up would unfold to one final new high. The other alternate is to think that 2013-2017 is an expanding pattern. The time taken makes it look like this is the less likely pattern but would be a valid alternate if the rising channel for wave 5 up breaks down