Relative Rupee

In case you did not notice the INR pair, the USDINR, has note exactly been falling like the rest of the worlds currency pairs. The relative rupee is the RS of the USDINR with the DXY or dollar index. This is rising since April. Meaning that on a relative basis holding steady the INR is actually weaker than the dollar. We in effect have a currency devaluation quietly

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Euro And US 10 Years T Notes Technical Analysis

Euro

The Euro bull run continued even as bearish sentiment is in single digits. This excessive near term bullish traders reading continues to mean that a 5 wave rise is closer to completion. For the rally to continue unabated a pause or consolidation is needed. That said the big picture remains bullish as everyone has the narrative wrong.

US 10 Years T Notes

The 10 year note has retraced almost 50% and wave c=a is nearly done. wave ii should be near completion and wave iii down is to unfold next soon.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodities Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold has its neckline of the lows [blue line], at 1238. So that is a key resistance level. Daily momentum did turn positive and prices broke out of the falling channel but some more signs are needed that the trend has changed to up for good.

Aluminium MCX
Aluminium rallied in 5 waves and retraced 61.8% at 121.70. Dipped to a low of 120.90. So these supports should help propel it into wave iii up iii=i points to 127.50

CRUDE MCX

Crude Mcx – is in wave c up. c=a goes up to 3200 however with wave c subdividing we can see it extend to higher rations. The x wave high near 3383, is 61.8% of the entire decline for the year. 50% is at 3257. Both are open levels that can be achieved in wave c

Silver MCX

Prices are edging higher with the 40dema at 38238 as the next resistance. I still think we can make one last dip in wave z that can test the lower channel line near 35000 a last time before a larger up trend can start. A move above 38238 however might mean that we have already bottomed out.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Technical Analysis of CRB Index, DOW, NASDAQ, BSE 200 And DAX

CRB Index
The CRB Index of commodities is now tracking higher with Oil and base metals. Only the PMs are lagging behind. While it is possible to imagine that Crude is still in wave B as a triangle, the CRB index that mostly reflects energy looks like it maybe done. The recent bottom involved a 66% retracement in price [blue line] and a weekly RSI of 29. Wave C up should not only carry to the wave A high but go past the grey trendline that marks the 2009 lows to rule out the case for new lows first in the index and oil as some are anticipating. My markings can change to 1-2-3 but even conservatively we should go in wave C to the upper end of the channel near 215 [current 178]

BSE 200

Is it possible to count the rise from 2009 as 5 waves? I usually take 2008-2013 as a triangle. But if I go by all the impulse wave markings of the street for each rally since 2009 it can be done as 9 legs are complete. In 2015 when I called the market top I used the Arithmetic scale chart of the BSE 200 or broader indices to project that the upper end of the channel was reached and we may go to the lower end. After 12 months down a move up started that after 2 years and adding 4 more waves [yellow extention] has brought us back to the upper end of the channel on the arithmetic scale. So it is a key resistance zone as much as given the number of waves completing the blow markings show we have 5+4=9 waves that can be marked as complete 5 waves with a 3rd wave extended for the long term 5th wave [circle]. Let us see what unfolds here.

NASDAQ 100

The Nasdaq 100, a year back among the many alternates I considered was a triangle for 2015-2016. Going back to that it changes the outlook for the Nasdaq near term. Wave 5 up would have only started. The upper trendline of the highs goes to 6080-6100.

DOW

Dow – wave 5 is extending, we are now in wave v of 5 and that is also subdividing. 21340 is the lower trendline and till it does not break we can go to 21800.

DAX – leading the way for Europe

Unlike US stocks that are stretching out in wave 5 higher, the European indices have 5 wave declines. It shows up very clearly in the German DAX. It recently bounced back in 3 waves to almost 61.8%. Yesterday it fell below the b wave low confirming that the bounce was corrective and maybe wave 3 down to  12060

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Trade Finance Updates From Around The World

UK Government Recruits Big Banks For SME Trade Finance

As part of a broader effort to keep the economy strong post-Brexit, the United Kingdom has reportedly reached a deal with the nation’s largest banks to provide trade finance to SMEs that are exporting overseas.

According to The Financial Times on Wednesday (July 12), Barclays, HSBC, Lloyds, RBS and Santander are partnering with the United Kingdom to extend trade finance to exporting small businesses (SMBs) and their suppliers. Trade secretary Liam Fox said the move aims to make access to capital easier for those SMEs and their suppliers as the nation works to catch up to other EU markets, like Germany, by boosting exports.

Reports said the agreement will see the government giving banks a guarantee to reduce some of the risk of lending to SMBs. Government body U.K. Export Finance will take on 80 percent of the risk of the loan or bon

Source: http://www.pymnts.com/news/b2b-payments/2017/uk-recruits-big-banks-for-sme-trade-finance/

Digitalising Trade Finance: the time to act is now

While digitalisation of banking processes has been gathering pace in many areas – from Retail Banking to Payments processing – Trade Finance has been lagging in its digital journey. Recent research from the International Chamber of Commerce found that just 7% of respondents said digitalisation was “widespread”.

Trade Finance has always been paper-intensive, from letters of credit to bills of lading. Although slow moving, the system worked and the need to innovate was not there. Until now the technology solutions deployed by banks to handle the Trade Finance processes have generally been hardcoded – making it difficult to customise or react quickly and innovatively to changing market requirements.

Source: https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/14291/digitalising-trade-finance-the-time-to-act-is-now

The Growth Of Cryptocurrency: India Versus Global Trends

The Government Of India Is Looking To Legalise Cryptocurrency Such As Bitcoin.

There is a growing consensus that cryptocurrencies will certainly play a crucial role in the way we deal with money. In April 2017, the total market cap for all cryptocurrencies, combined, was slightly higher than $25 Bn. The same market cap shot up by 300% and touched $100 Bn within 60 days. It is already widely reported that cryptocurrency, as an asset class, is set to outpace all other asset classes in relative growth.

Source: https://inc42.com/resources/growth-cryptocurrency-india/

Brazil, Euro And Dollar Index Technical Analysis

Brazil – Wave 5 ended in FEB. We are now in the third leg, wave Y, which is a 3 wave decline marked as A-B-C and wave B mostly completed at the upper Bollinger band in a small 5 wave advance [wave c of B], so wave C down can go to 56000-55800 if C=A

 

DOLLAR INDEX

Wave 4 up in the dollar is still not complete. This especially as the Euro bullish sentiment reached a multi year record of nearly 93%. This reading needs to cool off more and the dollar should at least move up in wave c of 4 before we see the decline resume. 95.225 was the recent low and till it holds this is the view.

EURO

The Euro This morning on the hourly chart shows a clear 5 wave decline in wave A, and a bounce back which is mostly B. 38.2% at 1.138 or 61.8% at 1.14 may be achieved in wave B after which wave C can drop to 1.125 or as far as 1.11. The 5 wave decline should mean that the 5 wave rise from the April low is complete and being corrected. The first pull back in a larger up trend.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Indian Sentiments Update

The weekly chart of the Sensex provides for a more reliable count for the move now. With the moves since march fitting a rising channel. Wave 1 and 3 here are 5 waves and 3<1, so we are in wave 5 which will be smaller still. And will end at or before the upper channel line at 32300. Will it be a one side move in wave 5 or also a subdivision like the first two impulse waves. While both are possible, subdivisions do sometimes repeat and if so then this last 5 waves up could spend a whole month completing even with a smaller target. But it can end abruptly as well.

So we will have to see what happens when a smaller degree 5 waves up completes, do we get a trend reversal. The 5th wave can also end up being an ending pattern which would then be 3-3-3-3-3 in terms of its internal wave counts.

All the above would have to weighed on what the sentiment is doing? Will FII data remain reliable where P Notes are concerned? Locally registered FIIs can still trade derivatives. So of the Index futures OI for FIIs. how much is P Notes? It would be a small amount. FIIs have a total of 1082696 contracts open in F&O yesterday evening. Not all are P Notes. So at a contract level yesterdays total Open contracts are higher than day before. So where is the big reduction in positions? However when we measure the net positions as long or short based on these charts it show that FIIs continue to reduce their index longs in futures over the last month. Will keep watching this data and so far as there is no major change in OI the data remains reliable, and P Notes are not affecting this much so far as P Note exposures have been coming down over the year since the regulator has been pushing for the same for a long time.

Another Indicator that I discussed in last weeks video update was the Client side options positions. That spiked yesterday to -33% short as Put OI hit a new high. I have inverted the indicator at the bottom of the chart so that negative readings can be associated with market tops. While rising Put OI is bullish, at extremes it becomes contrarian. Most tops were seen when we went higher than -30%.

The OI Put Call ratio for the market reached 1.228 above the red line shown below. The last high reading was in May that caused more of a broad market reaction than Nifty.

Anther way to look at the Call Put ratio is the actual difference than the ratio. Note the above two and this below are reflecting a big jump in PUT OI from different angles. This chart shows that when in value terms the OI is at negative 15k crore there are many market highs and lows, but at close to 20k crore near the red line we get some important highs and lows. Yesterday we were at -19320 crore. We were at a similar reading before the May top in Midcaps this year, the March 2015 top in NIfty [9119] and the Feb 2012 top and April 2011 market high.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis

SOY BEAN NCDEX

Soy bean prices formed an expanding triangle near the 61.8% mark. Last time I wrote that a bounce can occur because of the triangle but as shown why not a bottom? Possible Wave Y is over. Either another X wave up retracing the Y or the start of a major impulse. The trend should be up as long as we are above 2650. Breakout of the triangle above 3035 to go to 3286

Copper MCX

Copper Closed the week down. Now 365 is the next support. Halting near retracements it is still possible that copper is within a larger corrective structure. The recent rally is not certainly impulsive. So if 365 breaks wee can see it go back to test the 353 low [below 2.62$ to 2.48$].

ZINC MCX

Base metals are showing a near term correction after Lead, Aluminium and Zinc look like completing near term 5 wave rallies. The indication therefore is of a positive trend ahead but after a pause correction or retracement. The size of a pullback is hard to say.

For Zinc below the 20dma at 173 is the immediate support. 167 is the 61.8% retracement mark.

CRUDE

Crude has fallen in 3 waves so far to 66% retracement. If the low of 43.65 is not broken we can start wave c up to 49.10 or higher.

Silver MCX

Reccent data from CFTC shows that bulls that were record long at the highs on Silver have given back almost all of their long positions. With sentiment at just 9% bullish we are at the fag end of the decline in gold and silver. The chart shows the falling channel for the price, that I published a while back. At yesterdays low we came close to the line and we may test it one last time in wave z down. The channel is at 35000. The RSI is also entering the oversold sub-30 range.

CORN CBT

Corn – Prices surged with the rest of the Agro prices on the international markets. Corn hit a new high as it starts a larger degree 3rd wave up. Wave 3 up points to 460 just based on 3=1. That is a normal non extended wave over 12 months.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

Currency And US 30 Year Treasury Bonds Technical Analysis

While the 10 year has already broken the rising channel 2 days ago the 30 year bonds are now at the rising trendline near 152. So a further decline in the bond market will get this second confirmation of a break down in the bond market. We would be at the start of a 3rd wave down in US bonds. [We have discussed this scenario and its impact in this months Long short report.]

USDCAD

USDCAD – the last post identified the Wave B high at 61.8%. From there we have a 5 wave decline so the down trend is established. We may get the first retracement of the fall when the 5 wave decline completes but the larger trend down will resume again, till C=A is achieved. The RSI is getting oversold. 1.33 near the wave 4 high would be a resistance level during a counter trend move up. After that we may head to 1.25 in wave 3 of C.

EURO

The euro/dollar did not achieve 1.15 and it is hard to say yet that prices have started wave 2 down. When they do we get a retracement of the entire 5 wave rise back to the wave 4 low near 1.11. Till then it is open to interpretation. But the overall picture is clear, that we are ending a 5 wave rise and due for retracement before a larger rally resumes

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Nasdaq, DAX And Karachi Index Technical Analysis

NASDAQ

So while the Dow tested its highs again the Nasdaq was again pulled down as all the FANG stocks gave up. The Nasdaq 100 index broke the 29/06 swing low. The neckline of a h&s broken the pattern points to 5420.

DAX

DAX – the German index has not confirmed a trend reversal on long term charts yet but it did form a doji star on the quarterly chart. That it did so after achieving the target of 5=1 shown by the box makes it an important candle to watch as the trend could be complete here

KARACHI 100

A very steep fall in the Karachi 100, and it is in wave 5/5, but the 5th wave did not achieve the Fibonacci or channel target. So I leave it open as to whether the final top is in or not. While possible ideally it should extend some more.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd