Russell 2000 where will it head for?

US equity indices are seeing major divergences in the last week. The Dow is alone at the new highs. The Nasdaq is moving lower slowly, the S&P is flat, the Transports is bouncing back from a 5 wave decline, and the Russell 2000 is now in minor wave iii down from the multiple highs in the channel of the 6 month highs and lows. We can say prices are attempting to move to the lower end of the range again at 1374.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

GOLD

A series of corrective moves in gold, a move below the rising channel supporting prices for the last few weeks would change trend and that lower line is at 1262$.

SOY MEAL CBT

Soy Meal – completing a-b-c down wave 2 at 66% retracement at 307 might be done and wave 3 up to 356$ should be next.

Nickel MCX

Nickel Mcx is in wave v of iii. Once complete prices could correct somewhat in wave iv. The rise can also be marked as a-b-c complete, in which the trend can reverse down. So near term watch out for what Nickel does before a further call on it. First support will be near the 20dma at 630 and rising.

 

CRB Index

CRB index has an overlapping structure that can be a leading diagonal in wave A. So wave B down may occur as the momentum crossed back to the sell side. Watch if the lower trendline breaks. Could indicate near term weakness for commodities. While the rise can also be a wedge it appears like a 5-3-5-3-5 pattern.

Silver

Silver is at the trendline of the previous two tops down to 16.92 as a key resistance or breakout level.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Currency Technical Analysis

USDINR

USDINR broken the May 2017 low of 63.98 [spot]. Doing so the fall in USDINR from the 68.87 high in Nov is 5 waves down. This changes the wave counts longer term and am going with the alternate that I did not consider earlier. I have been trying for a while to complete the 5th wave of the rise from the 2011 bottom. That entire rise from 45-69 then would be wave 3 circle. But here I am thinking maybe not. Maybe this whole consolidation from 69 in 2013 when RR came into the RBI to date is wave 4 and wave 5 of 3 has still to form. Wave 4 may end near 63 or might continue to develop into a triangle for the rest of the year before wave 5 starts. The reverse channel at 63 is also good reason to consider a low near 63. I will continue to explore what should be the proper wave count for this whole period, but the long term trend is up and from near 63-62.80 we should start another move up for USDINR

EURO

The Euro is pushing at the upper channel line and overdue for a decline in wave 4 back down to the lower channel line near 1.15

EURINR

EURINR would complete its first wave up at larger degree and the next dip would be wave 2 of larger degree. Upper channel line at 76.17 and lower one at 74

US 10 Years T Notes

US T notes taking longer to sell off. Alternately they are forming a flag. Wave b bottomed at 61.8% retracement and wave c up might push higher before wave iii down starts.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

News & Update on Trade Finance Across The Globe

Deutsche Bank appoints Atul Jain as head of Apac trade finance

Deutsche Bank today announced the appointment of Atul Jain as Head of Trade Finance and Trade Finance Flow – Asia Pacific, effective immediately. Based in Singapore, Mr. Jain will be responsible for leading the trade finance business in the region, and for driving the execution of the business’ strategy.

In his new role, Mr. Jain will report to Daniel Schmand, Global Head of Trade Finance, and Michael Dietz, Global Head of Trade Finance Flow. He will also regionally report to Lisa Robins, Asia Pacific Head of Global Transaction Banking.

Mr. Jain was most recently Regional Chief Operating Officer for Deutsche Bank’s Corporate & Investment Banking division and Global Transaction Banking business in Asia Pacific. Prior to this, he was Deutsche Bank’s Acting Regional Head of Group Strategy in Asia Pacific, and began his career in the U.S. with Deutsche Bank’s Global Corporate Finance business.

Source: https://www.finextra.com/pressarticle/70223/deutsche-bank-appoints-atul-jain-as-head-of-apac-trade-finance

Trade Financing Firm Vayana Network Raises $4M From IDG Ventures and Jungle Ventures

Pune based Vayana Network has received Series A funding of $4 million from IDG Ventures and Jungle Ventures. This follows an earlier round of investment in the company by Reliance Industrial Investments and Holdings Ltd (RIIHL) and couple of other investors.

Vayana Network is India’s largest technology based third-party B2B trade financing platform and has so far processed over Rs. 4,000 crores ($600 million) in financing via 9 lending partners (5 Banks and 4 NBFCs) across large, medium corporates and SMEs in India. Vayana was selected by GSTN as one of the 34 GST Suvidha Providers (GSP), to facilitate smoother transition by businesses to GST. The equity investment will be used to further strengthen its B2B trade financing network both in India and abroad.

Commenting on the latest round of funding, R N Iyer, Founder and CEO, Vayana Network, said “This funding comes at an exciting time with GST driving a digital invoicing ecosystem in India and in the backdrop of increasing velocity for trade based financing led by third party platforms globally. Our mission from day one has been to focus on designing the simplest possible process for corporates of all sizes and from different industries to avail short term financing for their buyers and suppliers. Our special focus on trade documentation has also enabled us to play an important role in GST regime. We plan on offering several value-added services for our clients to help them take advantage of the trade data.”

http://bwdisrupt.businessworld.in/article/Trade-Financing-Firm-Vayana-Network-Raises-4M-From-IDG-Ventures-and-Jungle-Ventures-/17-07-2017-122259/

Axis Bank launches digital invoice discounting platform, seeks govt push

Axis Bank launched its digital invoice discounting platform, Invoicemart, to improve access of funds to micro, small and medium sector enterprises (MSMEs). Invoicemart is a platform created by A.TREDS, a joint venture of Axis Bank, India’s third-largest private bank, and Mjunction Services, one of the largest B2B e-commerce company. Kalyan Basu, MD & CEO of Invoicemart thinks that digital factoring as a business can get a further boost if the government pushes the public sector MSMEs to get on the platform.

In November 2015, RBI had given an in-principle approval to three entities to set up TReDs (Trade Receivables Discounting System). The other two entities are — Mynd Solutions (Gurgaon) and NSE Strategic Investment Corporation and Small Industries Development Bank of India (Mumbai).

Source: http://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/companies/axis-bank-launches-digital-invoice-discounting-platform-seeks-govt-push-2330445.html

Global Trade Finance Market Size, Status and Forecast 2022 – BNP Paribas, Citigroup, HSBC, Commerzbank, UniCredit, SunTrust Bank

This report studies the global Trade Finance market, analyzes and researches the Trade Finance development status and forecast in United States, EU, Japan, China, India and Southeast Asia. This report focuses on the top players in global market.

Brooklyn, NY — (SBWIRE) — 08/04/2017 — The report on the global Trade Finance market is a technical and competitive overview on the current state of Trade Finance market, covering various aspects such as product definition, financial revenues, investments, economy segmentation and developments based on chief market parameters, distribution channel, supply chain analysis, and the prevailing vendor landscape. It compiles exhaustive information sourced via proven research methodologies. The information thus compiled is presented in a logical chapter-wise format. It is also interspersed with relevant graphs and tables to enable readers get a better perspective of the global Trade Finance market.

Read more: http://www.digitaljournal.com/pr/3439423#ixzz4ot7Z71hk

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Above news update and trends are sourced from internet and are purely meant for reading on the related subject and for information. Adam Smith Associate is not responsible for any of the content and nor it is meant for any commercial benefits

 

Structured Trade Finance – What Does It Mean?

What is Structured Trade Finance?

Structured trade finance (STF), a type of debt finance, is used as an alternative to conventional lending. This form of finance is utilized regularly in developing countries, as well as, in relation to cross border transactions.

The objective is to encourage trade by making use of non-standard security. STF is generally used in high-value transactions in bilateral trading relationships. As a more complicated type of finance, STF is commonly related to commodity trading.

Within the commodity sector, STF products are most prevalent. It is used by producers, processors, traders, as well as, end-users. These financial arrangements are tailored by banking organizations to meet the precise needs of the clients. STF products are primarily working capital financing, warehouse financing and pre-export financing.

There are also some institutions that extend reserve-based lending, as well as, finance the conversion of raw materials into products, along with other customized finance products. In order to promote trading activities, STF products are extended across the supply chain.

STF structures are sponsored by limited recourse trade finance lines. The structure aims at offering better security mechanism and to act as an enhancement on the position of the borrower when viewed in isolation.

How Has Technological Advancements Complemented STF?

Trade credit insurance, bank assurances, letters of credit, factoring and forfaiting are some of the STF products that have been positively affected by the latest technological advancements. These products have changed due the recent developments.

The massive progress in communication and information domains have also helped the banking institutions to track the physical risks and events in the supply chain between the exporter and the importer.

Why are STF Facilities Used?

Structured trade finance products are used so that the risks related to trading in specific country and different jurisdictions can be mitigated. Any transaction together with STF products help to add resilience to the trade and the same cannot be said when looking at financing the individual elements of a trade.

Moreover, it allows for lengthening the payment time, strategizing procurement, diversifying funding and enhancing the ability for clients to boost the facility sizes.

What makes STF extremely attractive is that the borrower’s strength in the transaction is not scrutinized as closely as compared to a vanilla loan. Here, the focus is more on the structure and the underlying cash flows.

Another reason for STF’s popularity is that the transactions are not reflected in the balance sheet of a company and the presence of this financing option has helped several importers to maintain flexible credit terms with exporters.

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In recent years, structured trade finance products coupled with the recent advances in technology are considered as the fundamental reasons for the increasing volumes of international trade.

Structured trade finance supports 1/3rd of the global trade activities. It encourages the free flow of capital goods and commodities from one country to another. It is used primarily in the commodity sector.

For more information on what you can gain by working with us, contact us today!

Pharma Index Technical Analysis

Pharma Index

The Healthcare index that captures the Pharma sector gave up in the last two days. The rise is a-b-c, a 3 wave pattern, and overall an X wave in a larger decline for the sector. Wave Z down should mostly start, that should see a new low again at the lower end of the 2 year falling channel near 12500.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Mid Cap Weekly Technical Analysis

The weekly chart of the Midcap indices is important. Midcap indices are relatively weaker to nifty since May. So in the recent rally they have only gone back to test the weekly upper Bollinger band and that worked as a resistance today. The daily and weekly momentum below are in sell mode. The weekly momentum has a clear negative divergence with price. I would expect the Midcap indices to fall to at least the 40wema [green line] to start with [8% down].

Currencies Technical Analysis

EUR INR

The EURINR would also complete 5 wave rise from the April low if the Euro ends a third wave rally att this level. A 38.2% retracement to 72.50 is normal

USD GBP

USDGBP – has been correcting slowly for long, as long as I have maintained that wave 5 up is next and should develop. The change is from the yellow smaller triangle I considered earlier to the larger blue falling triangle in wave 4 that maybe completing. The USDGBP should be bottoming near or above 0.758. Breakout from the triangle is above 0.782. And wave 5 has a longer term target near the upper channel and 5=1 at 0.90

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD

With gold near 1264.70, 66% retracement the rise is 7 legs. Now it is possible to consider that wave iii up started based on yesterdays discussion however with the dollar still due for a near term rally from oversold conditions consider that till 1264 is not surpassed we may see one last dip lower in Gold prices. Above 1264 we go to 1287 at the trendline of the tops from the 2016 high.

CORN CBT

Corn prices bottomed at the 66% mark and are quitely moving higher. Holding this level at 1780 long term we should be in the early stages of a new move higher. A new bull trend rather than a X wave is what I would think but far from over.

Copper

Copper prices to develop wave iv correction. RSI at 78 it is quite overbought. Forming a doji yesterday. Wave iv can be a 38.2% retracement back to 2.80$. It maybe a swift correction or possibly a more prolonged time wise pattern like a triangle.

Gaur Gum

Guar Gum – is in the early stages of a larger up move. So it seems after the recent price action. In my last post I thought the rally was a 4th wave and it went past the 2015 low overlapping it. So that option is out. The only best option is that a A-B-C bear market ended in 2016. The recent correction in prices is to the lower end of a rising channel and that support has held so far near 6578. The rising channel marks the early stages of a larger rise if it holds and means prices would go beyond the 8671 high to test the upper end of the channel at 9490. Breakout above the rising channel at 9490 would go to the next major swing high at 12900.

Silver

Silver – reached the upper Bollinger band at 16.82 and sold off. Staying below this level prices may start another decline back to 16.15 and then 15.50 and then 15

Turmeric

Turmeric completed an impulsive rally in wave i, after a dip in wave ii we should see wave iii. 7556 the recent high once crossed we go to iii=i, which can be between 9100-9800

Copper MCX

No body gets the commodity rally just like nobody got the dollar bear market so I take credit for both forecasts. Global copper prices hit a 52 week high in wave 3. So MCX prices also should be o that path. A minor wave iv correction may get followed by wave v up. larger degree 3=1 is at 475 so we have a long way to go.

Aluminium MCX

Aluminium prices formed a triangle and broke out on the upside. Wave wise minor wave iii started. Breakout of a falling channel is above 125. Support from averages near 122. iii=i points to 127.80. And the channel breakout target based on the size of the channel goes to 132.

Zinc MCX

Zinc prices ticked up yesterday, daily momentum indicators are still to confirm, but a 3 wave correction to the lower band is complete, so wave iii up mostly started. The overhead trendline from the previous top is at 188.8 as the first resistance followed by iii=i near 209. That is the easy part. The one hard to digest is that wave 3=1 at larger degree now points to 330. Wave 1 ended at 204.20, and a move above that would have the potential to go to as far as 330.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Trade Finance News Updates & Trends Around The World

Do more to boost Islamic trade finance

AS the World Trade Organisation (WTO) reaffirmed commitment to its Aid for Trade initiative at its 2017 Global Review in Geneva this month, the outlook for global trade over the next two years is indeed mixed.

WTO is forecasting that global trade will expand by 2.4 per cent this year and between 2.1 to four per cent next year, reflecting the continued uncertainty and risks associated with a stuttering global economy underpinned by low commodity prices, albeit slightly improving this year, which in turn has had a dampening effect on trade finance.

Trade and SMEs (small- and medium-sized enterprises) are regarded as the backbone of any self-respecting economy. Trade is a significant determinant and function of sustainable development. Not surprisingly, the theme of WTO’s Geneva gathering was “Promoting Trade, Inclusiveness and Connectivity for Sustainable Development”.

Source: https://www.nst.com.my/opinion/columnists/2017/07/261175/do-more-boost-islamic-trade-finance

A GAP IN GLOBAL TRADE FINANCE OF AROUND $1.6 TRILLION PER YEAR

Latest survey results and analyses by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) point to a gap in global trade finance of around US$1.6 trillion annually—much of it in developing markets, particularly in Asian developing countries. The concern is that, according to “2017 Rethinking Trade & Finance”, the latest report of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC): “It is increasingly clear that banks will be unable to materially close this gap in Trade Financing, and that there is a misalignment in the availability of funds and liquidity”.

With worldwide trade developing at a fast speed, trade finance is the “oil in the engine” of international commerce, and tool number one for treasury managers. The banking sector has recovered from the last financial crisis, and liquidity seems to no longer be an issue. 

Source: https://corporatefinance.co/finance/gap-global-trade-finance-around-1-6-trillion-per-year/

Banking Commission Survey confirms trade finance supply/demand imbalance

The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Banking Commission has released its 2017 report entitled Rethinking Trade and Finance. Based on the Global Survey on Trade Finance – with 255 responses from banks located in 98 countries, as well as insight and commentary from expert contributors – the report is the most comprehensive gauge of the trends and outlook of the global trade finance industry.

Now in its ninth year – 2017’s Survey marks a significant change in both emphasis and presentation. The aim is to provide both enhanced context – highlighting the potential strategic and tactical implications for the industry – and to be more forward looking. The approach is aided by the launch of a new Editorial Board comprising senior specialists and practitioners, supported through contributions from a wider range of partners across global trade.

The Report – emphasising ICC’s and the Banking Commission’s support of open, rules-based and inclusive multilateral trade – encompasses four major sections of content linked to the pillars of the Banking Commission’s strategy. It focuses on the state of the trade finance market; trade and supply chain finance; policy, advocacy and inclusiveness around global trade; and digitalisation and the state of FinTech. The 2017 Survey’s findings show that:

  • Some 61% of banks report more demand than supply for trade finance in the global market. ICC Banking Commission and the Asian Development Bank estimate the level of unmet demand for trade finance stands at over US$1.6 trillion a year – a figure now officially recognised by the United Nations General Assembly.
  • Only a minority (21%) see traditional trade finance showing growth in the future. However, overall trade finance revenues have increased, with ICC partner The Boston Consulting Group’s trade finance model (included in the report) predicting revenue growth of around 4.7% a year.
  • Over 68% of respondents point to compliance and regulatory requirements as having the highest adverse impact on trade finance in the short-term, while only 11% pointed to capital constraints as a matter of significant concern.
  • Some 50% expect most of trade flow processes to be digitised by 2027 – while an almost equal portion expect the evolution to take from 10-25 years. In addition, nearly 44% of respondents identify digitalisation and technology as priority areas of focus – including FinTech and fast-emerging platforms.
  • While there is optimism with respect to the digitalisation of trade finance, only 12% of respondents perceive a degree of market uptake and nearly 40% see limited progress in this area – with almost 18% reporting that technical capabilities and technology are ahead of trade finance business practice.
  • The discourse around FinTechs is evolving from competition to collaboration, with only 1.4% of respondents viewing the competitive offering of FinTechs as a threat to banks’ positions as the key providers of trade finance.
  • More than one-third of respondents consider supply chain finance a high priority and predict significant growth, and over 21% view it as under analysis and consideration.
  • Over 57% report an improvement of their operational risk management and reduced error rates, while only 2.7% note a slight deterioration.
  • Some 46% identify multinational and large corporates as the highest priority client segment for their trade finance business, with a quarter favouring middle market clients and less than 20% identifying Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs).
  • Some 57% of respondents believe traditional trade finance will exhibit little or no growth – while 22% think it will decline outright year-on-year.
  • Cost control pressures are considered the biggest challenge facing trade finance units. These are cited by 23% of respondents, followed closely by the availability of specialist skills (21%), and limits posed by traditional technologies (18%).
  • The report highlights the key role that correspondent banks play in global trade and economic activity, with IMF data indicating that the volume of correspondent banking relationships grew by almost 30% between 2011 and 2015.

Source: https://iccwbo.org/media-wall/news-speeches/banking-commission-survey-confirms-trade-finance-supplydemand-imbalance/

Commerzbank steps up focus on trade finance transformation

Commerzbank is to work with the Fraunhofer-Institute for Material Flow and Logistics (IML) in Dortmund to test and develop new scenarios for digitisation of trade and supply chain finance using distributed ledgers and the Internet of Things.

Commerzbank says new concepts in digital trade finance based around distributed ledger technology, IoT and smart contracts constitute the basis for new trade ecosystems, new supply chain finance concepts, faster transaction processing and new solutions in working capital management.

Bernd Laber, group executive trade finance & cash management corporate clients, Commerzbank, comments: “We are working on several projects and in a number of consortiums also with other international banks on the digitisation of bank products and bank services, and on applications for blockchain technologies. As a corporate bank the focus on future supply chains of our customers is of paramount importance and we will develop this in co-operation with Fraunhofer Institute.“

Source: https://www.finextra.com/newsarticle/30785/commerzbank-steps-up-focus-on-trade-finance-transformation

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Above news update and trends are sourced from internet and are purely meant for reading on the related subject and for information. Adam Smith Associate is not responsible for any of the content and nor it is meant for any commercial benefits