Commodity Technical Analysis Report

ALIMINIUM MCX

Aluminium MCX prices achieved 5=1 on this chart and closed down. Is wave 5 over? It maybe work considering if this 5 wave move can be retraced given that the trendline of the highs since 2010 at 141 and the rising channel at 143 are close. Consider yesterdays high at 141.40 as important till clearly taken out.

PALLADIUM

Palladium prices stopped at the trendline of the highs from 2010 and this could mark an important resistance or top. Without putting a number on the downside implications the trend may turn down from here [980].

COPPER

The short term decline in copper is looking like 5 waves down, meaning that it is only wave a of a correction. This raises the odds that the 5 wave advance from 2016 is complete and a more meaningful pullback near term can unfold. 2.875 is the first key support. 3.03 is resistance

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Gold, Silver & Platinum Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold may be developing a leading diagonal as the 5 wave decline is overlapping. This would change if we fall below 1286 because then the third wave would become the shortest violating the wave count. wave A should be retraced in wave B up to 1315 or best case 1331 near 61.8% before the decline continues. Below 1286 prices may slide to 1270 near the 20 week average.

SILVER

Silver like Gold also witnessed a breakout failure and the rise so far is corrective. Unless there is new bullish evidence this pushes us back to the triangle view. The recent high would be wave D and wave E down would follow. We could spend months in a slow grind down as prices drop towards the lower end of the range near 15.30$.

PLATINIUM

As Precious metals start another corrective phase so do Platinium prices and they may decline to the lower end of this long term range. The lower line is near 822 where we should look for a possible bottom. Currently at 935

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

EURINR, USDINR and US 10 Year T Notes Technical Analysis

EURINR

The EURINR completes a 5 wave rise from April and should now be in wave 2 down, that can retrace 23.6% to 75 at least or 73.75 near 38.2% retracement

US 10 YEAR T NOTES

After a long wait the US 10 year and 30 year momentum indicators rolled over yesterday and tonight they broke the rising channel from the July low so the move up should be complete. The bond market started its next wave down. Unless it is part of a more complex rise, we should anticipate that wave 3/C down long term has finally started. Prices sold off from the 20 month averages. Next will be the broader rising channel from the March low.

USDINR

USDINR has spent a lot of time trying to move higher so it is possible that wave C down is developing into an ending pattern. The 20 week average at 64.24 is acting as a still resistance that can push prices down in wave e to 63.32. Unless we get above 64.24 this maybe the case. Once wave C is complete prices should start a prolonged advance.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Gold MCX and Gold Trend Analysis

GOLD MCX Daily

Prices closed below the 20dma and heading to the 40dema at 29400. If that breaks then the lower Bollinger band is at 29065 as the next support near a 50% retracement of wave 1.

GOLD

Gold broke below the 20dma and the rising channel for the trend. All the near term tops during 2017 that rose in 3 waves and broke the channel so far were followed by further declines. So far this looks the same. The move from 1204-1357 is 3 waves up and has broken down.

What this can mean is that the entire rise is still corrective in nature and will go back to test 1200 again. The final confirmation level is at 1278 below which the rise cannot convert to an impulse anymore. The 2016-2017 period will end up looking like a triangle when prices test the lower trendline once more. And a breakout above the neckline at 1350 will make the 2013-2017 pattern a inverted head and shoulders

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Nasdaq, Brazil, EURO, DAX & S&P 500 Technical Analysis

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Negative divergences continue on the weekly momentum for the Nasdaq that keeps bouncing back from the 20wma support [red average], The bands are narrow and either prices can expand the bands again by breakout out upwards or else we should at least pull back to the lower Bollinger band near 6041 [Upper end 6472]

BRAZIL

Brazil is the big beneficiary of the falling dollar. The equity market there was in a bearish trend from 2010-2016 when the dollar was rising. Now it is just the opposite. Wave 2 circle did not retrace much as I was anticipating and now wave 3 circle points to 11500 odd. This is a bull market. The Indian market does not relate with this at all.

EURO

During the last week the Euro fell in 3 waves and that leaves open one last alternate that wave 5 is still forming as a triangle. Wave e of 5 can push up to 1.21 a last time.

DAX

I wrote some time back that the DAX index is a leading diagonal in wave 1. Since then we are waiting for wave 2 to complete. Wave 2 is taking the shape of an expanded flat. Wave c of 2 up is now forming and c is now =161.8 times wave a, so the Fibonacci projection has been achieved. Wave wise wave c has to be 5 waves and might need one more up down sequence to complete. After that we can expect a major 3rd wave decline in European stocks or at least the DAX as a leading indicator.

S&P 500

S&P 500 is back at the upper end of the long term channel from 2009, at 2500. The trendline of the highs from June to August goes higher to 2522.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis And Trends

ZINC

Zinc Mcx did not break the 191 support and staying above it keeps open the option of the rally in zinc resuming. The upper end of the channel is at 217 for wave 5 up.

 

LEAD MCX

Complexity can be baffling at times. So after many weeks of complex moved Lead prices are moving up again. This requires serious consideration. So we have retraced 61.8% in what could be wave 2 as a complex pattern till we hold the recent 143 support. From here 3=1 can project up to 174 in wave 3 up.

SILVER

Silver immediate support at 17.50$, a close below which opens up 17.25 and 16.80 below that.

CRUDE MCX

Crude MCX is testing the July high of 3234, above which prices can stretch to the upper end of the rising channel at 3421. Note if we make new highs we are still in wave D and the marking of D will shift from July to the current move up where it completes. 61.58% of the previous decline is at 3380 [blue line].

COPPER MCX

Copper Mcx – 38.2% retracement done in 3 waves with support at the 40dema and the recent low at 417, we can now start wave 5 up to retest the recent high of 451.

ALUMINIUM MCX

Aluminium Mcx Completed a 3 wave correction in a channel to the lower Bollinger band at 131 as the key support. Wave 5 could start anytime. 138 and 143 are two Fibonacci projections for wave 5 up based on the ratio analysis of the move so far. 20dma at 133.63 is the first resistance followed by the wave 3 high at 136.20.

COFFEE CSCE

International Coffee prices are back on track with wave 3 up starting and should now attempt to breakout of the triangle upside at 158

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

FIIs What are they upto in India?

FIIs have been consistent sellers in the market and I am not talking only about the Cash market where they have sold net for Sept so far after a similar trend in August. The Index futures OI that I plot for FIIs [blue line] and shows a similar trend for much longer. FIIs were Max Long in Index futures a year ago. This year they did not add up that much and since June they are in exit mode.

Now positions came very close to zero in August and the markets bounced. Near Zero readings have caused market bottoms before, except in larger bearish trends when the Positions declined below the lower red line and FIIs were short in index futures. So either that is likely or FIIs will be pushed into buying again from here which could propel the market up like crazy. In that sense this is an inflection point.

IF FIIs keep selling then they will be going to the other side of the trade from Long to Short else they should start buying back. I have drawn a falling trendline from the June high and as long as the trend remains below it, I should think it is down. Starting Sept the blue line is falling again and not rising despite a rising market so they are not yet buying meaningfully.

 

The second chart which shows the extreme in Options OI in client positions as a % of the total. Look at the Red circles around all the tops since 2015. We are in the red zone again. What I do not know is whether large part of the decline will come this month or the next because of all the Put writing that has been done. But the upside should be limited on this indicator.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Trade Finance News & Updates Around The World

Trade finance gap narrows amid minimal fintech impact

The global trade finance gap has fallen from US$1.6tn to US$1.5tn, but the impact of fintech has been minimal to date.

The latest annual survey from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) finds that many of the perennial issues persist, such as funding gaps in emerging markets, hugely disproportionate rejection rates for small businesses and a rise in non-bank lending.

But despite the industry’s zeal for digitisation, just 20% of firms reporting have used digital finance platforms. In line with global trends, peer-to-peer lending is the most-used fintech model (23%).

And while 80% of banks surveyed said fintech will reduce compliance costs and 66% said that it will enhance their ability to assess SME risk, the rejection rate of SMEs continues to rise.

Source: https://www.gtreview.com/news/global/trade-finance-gap-narrows-amid-minimal-fintech-impact/

Jamii Bora bank introduces trade finance to support entrepreneurs

Jamii Bora provides trade finance that supports enterprises and entrepreneurs by providing practical and flexible financial services that are tailor made to customers’ needs. Trade finance offers insurance Premium Financing, Overdraft facility, Letters of Credit, Bora Customs Duty Facility, LPO Financing, Invoice Discounting, Bid Bond, Performance Bond, and Advance Payment Guarantee.

Trade finance targets contractors, Suppliers, Manufacturers, Retailers, Wholesalers, Distributors, Insurance brokers, Insurance companies, importers, and exporters.

Source:  https://www.standardmedia.co.ke/article/2001253766/jamii-bora-bank-introduces-trade-finance-to-support-entrepreneurs

Trade Finance Endures, And Overcomes, Banks’ Slow-Moving Innovation

A few years ago, Sameer Sehgal, the new CEO of trade finance firm Traydstream, said he probably wouldn’t have agreed that banks are playing a role in the innovation of the industry.

But trade finance is the target for massive disruption thanks to technologies like blockchain and robotics, Sehgal told PYMNTS, and banks are finally perking up to the need for progress.

Still, it’s not enough. Recent estimates from the Asian Development Bank pegged the global trade finance gap at $1.5 trillion in 2016, with SMBs bearing the brunt of that lack of financing for their global trade initiatives. Despite efforts from the FinTech community, the gap remains, and automation is far from ubiquitous, Sehgal said.

“Trade finance, in large part, hasn’t changed, even in centuries,” he explained. “The inefficiencies of processes are glaring — humongous.”

Source: http://www.pymnts.com/news/b2b-payments/2017/traydstream-talks-trade-finance-innovation/

Global trade finance gap stands at $1.5tr in 2016: ADB

Businesses of all sizes continue to struggle to access sufficient credit, resulting in a global trade finance gap of $1.5 trillion in 2016, according to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) brief released on Tuesday.

Developing Asia’s share of the trade finance gap was 40% of the global total, the brief added. In its fifth annual study, 2017 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey, ADB quantifies market gaps for trade finance and explores their impact on growth and jobs through a survey of over 515 banks and 1,336 firms from 103 countries.

While the global trade finance gap stabilised in 2016 compared to the 2015 record high of $1.6 trillion, it still translated into missed growth opportunities and job creation.

Source: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1498745/global-trade-finance-gap-stands-1-5tr-2016-adb/

Tunisia: UIB gets USD 10-million trade finance line from EBRD

In the framework of the implementation of its 2017-2020 development strategy supported by its activity and its offers for companies and SMEs, the “Union Internationale de banques” (UIB) announced the signing of a Trade Finance Partnership Agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

This line, totaling $ 10 million (equivalent to 24.4 million dinars), is intended to cover issues of guarantees maturing up to 3 years and financing pre-export and post-import transactions.

This agreement consolidates and broadens the UIB’s partnership with EBRD inaugurated on the conclusion on June 22 of a credit line dedicated to the financing of SMEs and mid-size enterprises in the amount of € 40 million and a maturity of 7 years.

Source: https://africanmanager.com/site_eng/tunisia-uib-gets-usd-10-million-trade-finance-line-from-ebrd/?v=947d7d61cd9a

Bank of Georgia Signs $75 Million Trade Finance Facility with ADB, IFC, Citibank

Bank of Georgia has signed a $75 million one-year Club Trade Finance Facility (Club Trade Facility) arranged by Citi with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group.

This is the fourth Club Trade Facility arranged by Citi for Bank of Georgia, which attracted several international investors during the syndication.

Bank of Georgia is a leading Georgian bank, based on total assets (33.8% market share), total loans (31.5% market share), and client deposits (31.5% market share) as of 30 June 2017.

Proceeds of this year’s Club Trade Facility will support import and export transactions for top corporate customers of Bank of Georgia, increasing the volume and value of trade transactions in Georgia’s key economic sectors, including agribusiness, transportation, and energy.

Source: https://www.finchannel.com/business/banksandservices/67411-bank-of-georgia-signs-75-million-trade-finance-facility-with-adb-ifc-citibank

A view from the ICC: Changing times call for a collaborative approach

The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Banking Commission’s new head of policy, Olivier Paul, discusses how the Banking Commission’s role will be critical as the trade finance industry adapts to unprecedented change.

There are some fundamental challenges ahead for trade finance: involving the regulatory landscape, the technological evolution of our industry and the vital inclusion of new non-bank sources of liquidity. These changes will involve everyone, meaning we will all need to adapt, including the ICC Banking Commission, where I recently became head of policy.

Yet I remain optimistic. For trade finance as a discipline, I am convinced that its best years are ahead of it, as long as we can embrace the future and view change as part of an evolutionary process rather than an existential threat. In fact, I see the Banking Commission’s role as vital for preparing the industry for that future, as well as being an advocate and influencer of the changes underway.

Just 20 years ago the most important role for the Banking Commission was rule-making, with advocacy a second, though still important, function. Since the 2008 financial crisis, however, these roles have been reversed, with advocacy of trade finance now the Banking Commission’s most critical function

Source: https://www.gtreview.com/news/global/commentary-changing-times-call-for-a-collaborative-approach/

White Oak Commercial Finance Provides $20MM Factoring Facility to Luxury Goods Distributor

White Oak Commercial Finance, LLC (WOCF), one of the nation’s leading financiers serving the middle market, announced today that it has provided a $20 million dollarfactoring facility to a distributor of luxury and branded apparel, accessories, handbags and watches. The proceeds will provide working capital to purchase inventory, manage account payables, and repay existing debt.

“White Oak Commercial Finance has a deep history in retail financing, having provided designers, importers and manufacturers of retail goods with access to growth and working capital for nearly 30 years,” said Robert Grbic, President and Chief Executive Officer, WOCF. “With strong historical profits and seasoned management team, this luxury goods distributor is an ideal company to finance.”

Source: http://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/White-Oak-Commercial-Finance-Provides-20MM-Factoring-Facility-to-Luxury-Goods-Distributor-1002361682

Blockchain and invoice finance: an early benefit analysis

Blockchain technology is generating huge amounts of hype across a number of industries – perhaps none more so than financial services. One area of finance that has received less attention to date is invoice financing. However, as we explain in this article, blockchain has the potential to revolutionise invoice financing, for the benefit of suppliers, debtors and financial institutions alike.

To start with it will be useful to briefly summarise what blockchain actually is. For a more detailed explanation of the Blockchain technology and some of the legal considerations with its adoption, see our introduction to blockchain.

Source: https://www.lexology.com/library/detail.aspx?g=a5e664eb-041c-42cd-9511-5ad1aac70c46

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Above news update and trends are sourced from internet and are purely meant for reading on the related subject and for information. Adam Smith Associate is not responsible for any of the content and nor it is meant for any commercial benefits

 

 

Adam Smith Associates at CIIs’ Banking Colloquium on 16 September, 2017

As the economy moves towards digitization and cashless regime and single market structure under the reform measures of GST and demonetization, Indian Banking sector is going through a sea change.

The recent merger of the State Bank of India with its associate banks has set the path of consolidation for other banks as well. India has the world’s highest stressed asset ratio and RBI is working prudently for management of stressed assets made up of bad loans, restructured debt and advances to companies that cannot meet servicing requirements.

The microfinance industry and the non-banking financial institutions need to work for a change in their financial transactions, a major chunk of which was based on cash transactions till recently.

The new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, which lays down timeline to recover from defaulters and capping of bank loans to conglomerates, is promising a new Indian banking landscape by bringing transparency in the system and effective resolution to bad loan.

The issue of cyber security for the banks is now a pressing issue for the economy since the wave of digitization has set in.

Against this backdrop, CII Eastern Region is organizing the 10th edition of “Banking Colloquium” on Saturday, 16 September, 2017 at The Lalit Great Eastern, Kolkata.

The Conference will have an Inaugural Session on Recent Policy Measures, Visionaries’ Roundtable and Technical Sessions on Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code for NPA Management, Digital Banking and the future and Session on Alternative Modes of finance.

Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd, a leading trade finance service provider with presence around the globe will be leading the discussion during Technical Session on “Alternative Mode Of Finance” at CIIs’ 10th Banking Colloquium on Saturday 16th Septmber 2017 at Kolkatta.

Mr Rudra Kundu, Managing Director of Adam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd. will be moderating the session on Alternative Mode Of Finance wherein Mr Rudra will touch upon

  • Infrastructure Finance
  • Capital controls and global free flow of capital
  • PE Funding
  • Housing Finance
  • Term Financing & Working Capital Finance

 

Panelist for this session will be

Mr Arup Rakshit
Head – Treasurer Advisory Group
HDFC Bank Limited

Mr Santosh Nayar
Ex-CMD, IIFCL

Mr Debasish Mallick
Deputy Managing Director
Export Import Bank of India

Mr Supratim Sarkar
EVP & Group Head (PA & SF), SBI Capital Markets Ltd.

Mr Manish Jaiswal
MD & CEO, Magma Housing Finance Ltd

This event is organized by CII