The Nasdaq 100 – is rising in a channel. While wave 5 could have ended into the July high, the period resulted in a consolidation that looks like a running triangle. So the entire rise from the 2016 bottom is in a channel and wave 5 can go to the upper end of the channel, and the rising channel is now kissing the long term channel from the 2009 lows as well, with both converging at 6600. So unless we get an early trend reversal in price indicators that the 5th wave for the Nasdaq 100 topped, it can stretch as far as 6600 in the coming weeks. The Dow rallied earlier and now Nasdaq is playing catch up.
1.152 and 1.13 are the next two fibonacci projections for the Euro on the way down. the trend down should resume and the up move yesterday maybe almost done.
USDJPY support is at 112.90, and heading in wave iii towards 117.95
USDINR – two major near term support levels coming up. 61.8% at 64.59, and the 20wma at 64.45. Holding these two the next wave up to above 66 should start.
EURINR – is in decline with the Euro and the 38.2% retracement is at 74.16 and 50% retracement is at 72.92.
GOLD MCX Daily
No change in trend or view here. A slow decline is on as the dollar rises. So the USDINR can support mcx prices even as comex prices fall but the bias is negative. The 20dma at 29563 should be the key resistance level. Retracement levels are open at 50-61.8%
Lead Prices started to break down. They may close the month down today. This can mean that longer term we completed a 5 wave advance in a double top as shown on this weekly chart. Major support levels are 144-142 at the lower trendlines and the wave 4 swing low at 131.
A 5 wave rise done for Aluminium the next set of levels are at 135 and 131 as long as we are below the 142 mark. Below 131 we would have to be open to 120 as well.
Copper prices stopped short of a new high, so wave v of 5 was truncated. The first support is at 440 [40dema and trendline] and if that breaks we go to the wave 4 low near 417.
The BSE Metal index has completed a 5 wave advance from the Sept low and possibly from the May bottom. With Base metal prices also giving up expect a deeper cut in metal stocks in the coming weeks as they give back some of the gains. Going back to the wave iv low is normal.
Natural Gas for months is forming a triangle in what could be a right shoulder. The resistance line for the x wave is at 3.08, and the support is at 2.78, If 2.78 breaks we would head to 2.5-2.30.
Are Logistic Companies Waking up to Trade Finance?
The logistics industry has a complex structure of players that enable products sourced globally to get to the last mile destination. There are freight forwarders, Regional and Global Ocean Carriers, air freight, Non Vessel owning 3PLs and others that provide a range of services.
Most logistic providers have not progressed with supply chain finance solutions. Until recently, UPS was the only game in town. Few people know that UPS bought a bank back in 2001, First International Bancorp, and got into the factoring business. Today, they focus on three finance solutions:
Hong Kong, Singapore to Collaborate on DLT Trade Finance Platform
Hong Kong’s banking regulator and de facto central bank has announced a new collaboration with Singapore aimed to digitize trade finance using distributed ledger technology (DLT).
Making the announcement today at a fintech event, the CEO of the Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA), Norman Chan Tak-lam, said the joint project with the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) will focus on a DLT proof-of-concept called the Hong Kong Trade Finance Platform (HKTFP).
Already having seen involvement from seven Hong Kong-based banks, the project is designed to digitize trade documents and reduce risk and fraud in the industry. Ultimately, the authorities plan the creation of a cross-border infrastructure that would serve as a bridge between HKTFP and a similar trade platform in Singapore.
Corda for Cargo: R3 Inks Another Trade Finance Partnership
In its latest effort to use distributed ledgers to modernize the paper-intensive business of trade finance, R3 has agreed to work with Bolero on an electronic bill of lading service.
Announced Monday, the partnership follows R3’s pilot with Japanese financial giant Mizuho to digitize letters of credit and bills of lading, and a trade finance app developed by 11 international banks using the consortium’s Corda platform.
R3’s newest partner, the U.K.-based Bolero, already offers an electronic bill of lading and title registry, with a common legal framework, but the reach of that service will be extended by developing an oracle on Corda, the companies said.
Part of R3’s broader mission is to “help connect digital islands,” Todd McDonald, a co-founder and head of partnerships at R3, told CoinDesk.
Global Trade Finance Market Research Report 2017-2022
Bharat Book Bureau announces the addition of the report “Global Trade Finance Market Research Report 2017-2022 by Players, Regions, Product Types & Applications [https://www.bharatbook.com/business-market-research-reports-952808/global-trade-finance-players-regions-product-types-applications.html ] ” to its offering.
The global Trade Finance market is valued at XX million USD in 2016 and is expected to reach XX million USD by the end of 2022, growing at a CAGR of XX% between 2016 and 2022. This report offers an overview of the market trends, drivers, and barriers with respect to the Trade Finance market. It also provides a detailed overview of the market of different regions across United States, Europe, China, Japan, India, Southeast Asia and Others. The report categorizes Trade Finance market by By Activity, By Scope, and application. Detailed analysis of key players, along with key growth strategies adopted by them is also covered in this report on Trade Finance market is valued at XX million USD in 2016 and is expected to reach XX million USD by the end of 2022, growing at a CAGR of XX% between 2016 and 2022.
BNY Mellon becomes partner bank in ADB’s Trade Finance Program
BNY Mellon has become a partner bank in the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) Trade Finance Program (TFP).
The agreement, made official at a signing ceremony during Sibos, covers a range of trade finance instruments, including loans and guarantees, and will allow BNY Mellon to continue its strong growth in Asian trade services by facilitating support to a wider range of customers, including small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs).
Backed by the ADB’s AAA credit rating, the TFP enables companies throughout Asia to engage in import and export activities through the provision of loans and guarantees by ADB’s partner banks. Since 2009, the program has supported over 9,200 SMEs across developing Asia – totaling over 13,000 transactions valued at over $25.5 billion. Sectors range from commodities and capital goods, to medical supplies and consumer goods.
Africa drives Access Bank’s trade finance growth
The Access Bank UK Limited, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Access Bank Plc, a Nigerian Stock Exchange-listed company, has witnessed strong growth in its trade finance business linking the Middle East region with Nigeria and other sub-Saharan markets, Jamie Simmonds, CEO of The Access Bank UK told Gulf News in an interview.
The bank which began its Dubai operations from the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) in 2015 said the DIFC office has become a regional business hub for the bank, attracting trade finance deals from across the Middle East and from Asia.
The bank works on a five-year plan and matches the liability side of the balance sheet with planned asset growth. In addition to the capital raised from its parent, the liability side is significantly supported by customer balances, Simmonds said.
Trade finance needed to foster intra-African trade
East and southern Africa leads in intra-African trade with the highest share of between 18 and 19 percent, which reflects Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa (COMESA) and Southern African Development Community’s (SADC) effective agenda in consolidating trade and development in Africa.
North Africa and Central Africa have the lowest share of intra-African trade of 5.3 and 2.1 percent, respectively.
This information is contained in the Trade Finance in Africa Survey Report by the African Development Bank Group published in September 2017, which tracks the changes that have occurred in the trade finance market in Africa during the period 2013-2014.
De-risking in trade finance: time to act
As financial authorities express concern about de-risking in correspondent banking, a similar phenomenon is emerging in trade finance, driven by the high costs of KYC compliance.
There is a danger that some banks in some regions, such as Africa, will have difficulty connecting to the trade finance world. Banks need to collaborate to help corporate clients to connect with their customers and address the still unsatisfied demand for international trade services.
De-risking is a hot topic in the cash clearing universe as some correspondent banks withdraw from certain countries, currencies, or products to control costs and risk. At the same time, de-risking is becoming a phenomenon in the trade universe for the same reasons.
Banks’ correspondent relationships are conducted via Swift’s global network, which numbers 11,000 banks in 200 countries. Via Relationship Management Application (RMA) keys, banks can connect with each other. The RMA is a Swift-mandated filter that enables financial institutions to define which counterparties can send them FIN messages. Any unwanted traffic is blocked at the sender level, reducing the operational risks associated with handling unwanted messages and providing a first line of defence against fraud. RMA Plus, a more granular version of RMA, goes one step further by letting institutions specify which message type(s) they want to receive from, and send to, each of their counterparties.
Hopes raised as first African bank joins trade finance fintech platform
South Africa’s Standard Bank has become the first African bank to join CCRManager’s digital trade finance platform, a global project to ease trade and supply chain finance distribution.
CCRManager (CCRM), a fintech firm backed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore, launched its platform earlier in the year, as previously reported by GTR.
Thirteen banks across 11 countries are already members of the platform, transacting live deals. These include Bank of China, DBS Bank, ICICI Bank, Swiss Re Corporate Solutions, UniCredit, BBVA, Yes Bank and now Standard Bank. The remaining banks are based in Japan, Hong Kong, Middle East and UK, but have not been named.
Sponsored roundtable: Assessing India’s trade finance scene
GTR: The current government of India has been taking steps to make trading and transacting simpler and easier. How do you assess the progress that’s been made on that front?
Somasekhar: In India, we have a robust foreign trade policy compared to three decades earlier. When we see the foreign trade policy, many of the items are becoming freely importable. The documentation part of the foreign trade policy has gradually been simplified over a period of time. Previously, we had around 21 to 25 documents that a customer had to submit to the authorities. Today, it has been reduced to seven or eight documents. There has been simplification of documents over the past several years in this regard.
One issue is with physical documents. Although many of the banks have completed their digitalisation process, the synchrony with customs was not available and is now being looked into. The customer gives the documents to the bank. In some cases, the bank has an interface with the customer systems, but banks in turn do not have an interface with the customs offices. This maintains the need for the physical documents to ensure that we adhere to the guidelines of customs or the regulator.
Verma: The Export Data Processing and Monitoring System (EDPMS) and Import Data Processing and Monitoring System (IDPMS) are great developments on that front. What did not happen in the last five decades has happened in the last two and a half years. It is a great change that I see. While there are a few teething issues, we believe that it is a great step in the right direction.
Somasekhar: We agree it is a positive step. Compared to 20 or 30 years back when banks were generally dealing in physical documents today, we are able to at least see them in the system once the data is uploaded by customs. We can be sure that goods have come into the country or gone out of the country. But still, there are some bottlenecks. For example, when goods are delivered in manual ports, there is no entry in the EDPMS or the IDPMS immediately but only at a later date.
The FMCG index has been in wave 5 long term since 2009 and it has been an extended move. It did not stop at 5=1 [circle], it did not stop at the upper end of the rising channel. The momentum has been slowing down since it hit the upper line. Two possible outcomes exist. First and primary that we are in wave IV of 5 up that itself fits a channel. A move to the lower end of the channel would complete wave IV and then wave V up would unfold to one final new high. The other alternate is to think that 2013-2017 is an expanding pattern. The time taken makes it look like this is the less likely pattern but would be a valid alternate if the rising channel for wave 5 up breaks down
USDAUD completed a wave 2 correction and wave 3 up should have startded. 3=1 points to 1.33 next with support near 1.26
USDCAD – is due to start wave iii up with iii=i pointint to 1.30, support at 1.25
The monthly candles for USDINR show a engulfing bull pattern. The close for the month was above the previous bear pattern that had a high of 65. So 65 is an important pivot. The next move up should be seeing us up to 67 or the previous high at 68.87
USDZAR – or the South African Rand, wave ii pullback appears complete and wave iii up should be next. iii=i is at 14.40
Bitcoin has everyone’s fascination. After each 5 wave rally an EW analyst would expect a correction, and if it is 3 waves like the last one in Sept. Now another 5 wave rise is in progress and must add at least 3 more waves up as shown to complete a 5 wave sequence before we can say this move is complete. I do believe however as discussed in the Podcast that Bitcoin is a manifestation of the liquidity bubble and therefore its final top may coincide with that of equities at some point with a lag.
Silver is in wave c down and c=a can point to 37608. The recent high for wave b is at 40632. Wave c may also extend lower to the 2 year trendline support that is closer to 36026. Wave c will be a 5 wave decline so till 5 waves down do not complete the move is not complete.
Copper Mcx started minor wave v of 5 as a final push higher to a new high above the 466 high. Hard to put a number on how far it should go. But wave v of 5 should be final move for the last metal in the sector making a 5 wave advance.
GOLD Daily MCX
Gold was down and managed to push the daily momentum into sell mode. Gold Mcx closed very near the 40dema at 29571, below which gold should head to the lower Bollinger band at 29294. On weekly charts the 20/40 day averages are near 29090 as the next important support level. The weekly momentum also crossed over to the sell side as gold closed down for the week.
US 10 Years T Notes
The only reason I can think that drove fear into Indian markets would be the rising dollar accompanied by rising bond yields. The US 10 year treasury notes on Friday saw a bid dip closer to the wave 1 low. If broken it would confirm start of wave 3 up for bond yields. The 10 year notes should yields near 2.64% in wave 3.
Silver prices started to bounce back along with gold in wave b of a decline. Wave b should be a retracement of the fall that can test the previous swing high of the 20dma. These are at 40145 and 40595. Wave c down should eventually carry us closer to 36000
Gold retraced 61.8% of the entire advance seen from Jul-Sep 2017. The rise was corrective in nature and therefore the retracement should not mark a major bottom. But a short term low may finally be in place. A bounce back to the averages or the previous swing high cannot be ruled out. 1297-1313, is what we are looking at on the upside before the move down resumes.
Crude has fallen in 5 waves from the recent high and is mostly wave a of E down. Not certainly complete yet. 49.42 and 48.15 are the next two support levels.
Wave iv of 5 complete wave v of 5 in a final push up should test the 3.16 high. 2.97 is the support.
Lead MCX prices completed a 5 wave advance near the upper end of a rising channel. So expect a correction retracement or consolidation to follow. Upside maybe limited near term above 171.10, the high made.
Aluminium MCX took support on the 20dma at 136 and wave iii of 5 can go up to 146
Zinc completed a 5 wave advance short of the upper channel at 221. Unless we are extending beyond that the move maybe complete and we could see a fresh correction or consolidation here on. Upside maybe limited. A retracement of the entire 5 wave advance is also not ruled out but we need to see the initial waves develop before judging the pattern. The lower end of the channel at 201 is the first support. The wave 4 low at 190 a major support.
Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd