Commodity – Technical Analysis

LEAD MCX

Lead broke past the 40dema in wave iii minor degree. Levels to watch are support at 137. 38.2% retracement at 144, 50% at 148 and 61.8% at 152

ZINC MCX

Zinc broke out of the falling channel at 165 which should act as a support and the next set of retracement levels are 172-177-182

COPPER MCX

Copper MCX – closed above the averages as they hold above the falling trend since FEB. Momentum turned positive and 362.80 is the recent low support and 385 is the next resistance

Wheat CBT

Touched the upper end of a falling channel after a corrective advance and thus is open to dropping again from 471 to the lower end of the channel near 300.

 

COFFEE CSCE

Coffee prices have not yet bottomed and had a big down day yesterday. So chances are they will slip to the neckline near 100. While this level held the last few times we need to watch this time. Agro prices in general are falling everywhere, in India and abroad and no stopping it yet.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Trade Finance News Trends

Trade finance modernization turns towards blockchain

A study of European treasurers by working capital fintech C2FO finds that 75% are focusing on investing in trade finance technology in 2017. Colin Sharp, senior vice-president, EMEA at C2FO, says the shifting macroeconomic environment is pressuring corporates to refocus their efforts on trade finance: “Treasurers are facing a lot of uncertainty, both from the US and around Brexit. This is putting stress on the supply chain, with demand increasing and decreasing. Treasures want the ability to use their assets to make returns and give some certainty.

Source:https://www.euromoney.com/article/b12khnzp4pq9p5/trade-finance-modernization-turns-towards-blockchain

ICC Academy unveils new e-course on digital trade finance and fintechs

The educational arm of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the ICC Academy, has launched an advanced-level e-course entitled “Digital Trade Finance and Fintechs.” The curriculum is aimed at professionals working in banks, corporations, financial institutions, insurance companies and financial technology (fintech) firms.

Source: https://iccwbo.org/media-wall/news-speeches/icc-academy-unveils-new-e-course-digital-trade-finance-fintechs/

Targeting Seamless Trade Finance Operations

As Nigerians look forward to better days when the economy would have stabilised and emerged from recession, integrated digital payments company, Interswitch Group, has struck a deal with Misys, a leading provider of lending, treasury, trading and risk management solutions to ease trade finance operations and improve service delivery as far as local banks are concerned.

Source: https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/06/22/targeting-seamless-trade-finance-operations/

SBI cautious in India but looking to increase corporate lending in Europe

State Bank of India is trying to increase corporate lending in Europe. SBI Frankfurt, which has the status of an independent bank in Europe, has traditionally lent for trade financing but now wants to fund Indian business houses in Europe and European firms in India.

In the recent past, there has been a conscious shift in strategy to lend more to European companies, according to an executive with SBI Frankfurt. Now nearly 50 per cent of the bank’s non-trade finance business portfolio consists of syndicated loans to European companies. SBI Frankfurt’s growth in business over the next few years would come from lending to European firms, confirmed another bank executive.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/sbi-cautious-in-india-but-looking-to-increase-corporate-lending-in-europe-117061700260_1.html

 

Maersk now offering trade finance operation for customers

Danish liner company Maersk Line has expanded into the trade finance business by allowing customers to finance their operations as long as they are shipping with Maersk.

The financing scheme works because Maersk has a rich trove of customer information from which to base a decision on the customer’s creditworthiness, according to the Copenhagen-based company. This enables companies to manage their shipping and finance needs with one provider, rather than using one vendor for shipping and another vendor—normally a bank—for trade finance, Maersk said.

http://www.freshplaza.com/article/177338/Maersk-now-offering-trade-finance-operation-for-customers

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Currency – Technical Analysis

EURO

Euro – c=a points to 1.105 and 38.2% retracement is at 1.102, the trend should still be lower.

 

USDJPY

USDJPY should continue higher in wave c up to 115. Support is near 110.60

USDGBP

USDGBP – took support on the averages and has mostly started wave 5 up. Support is near 0.783 amd 0.777 and we should be heading to test 0.808 swing high next and eventually the wave 3 high at 0.846

USDCNY

USDCNY – corrected in 3 waves in what might be a 4th wave correction in a channel. Wave 5 up could start from 6.78. I cannot rule out a dip to 6.76, while non needed, and it would be a 38.2% retracement of wave 3. 5=1 pionts to 7.04 in wave 5 up. 6.892 resistance from the falling channel where we would have to breakout for higher levels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Commodity – Technical Analysis

NICKEL MCX

Nickel has a ending diagonal pattern at the lows the lower end support is near 558. The breakout is above 575-579. Daily momentum crossed over to the buy side as a start, so keep an eye on the next breakout as it may mark a trend reversal from down to up

LEAD MCX

Lead tried to break the double bottom support at 132 but is back above it and momentum has positive divergences and a buy mode, so till this level holds the bottom for Lead Mcx maybe considered. A move above  the 40dema and Bollinger band would further confirm strength.

 

ZINC MCX

Zinc has made a comeback on momentum indicators and crossed the 20dma. The breakout of the falling trendline from the Feb high is at 166.50 above which we can be in wave 3 up next. Conservatively a channel breakout has a measurement target based on taking the height of the channel and projecting it above the breakout point. That gives us 185.

GOLD

Gold’s sell off yesterday makes sure that the May June rally was corrective in nature. Chances are growing that we are in a larger triangle. Initially we will test the internal trendline of the 2017 lows near 1228$, but if that breaks then a drop to 1170 cannot be ruled out. So we will watch what happens at 1228, and not preempt a bottom there. The larger triangel structure will be a very bullish set up for long term investors once complete. By July-Aug it could be done.

Aluminium MCX

MCX Aluminium prices moved up yesterday out of a narrow intraday range of the last few days. It was very close to the lower end of a channel near 119 and 38.2% retracement near 120. The move up would test the falling channel at 125.70. And a breakout above the channel would put us into wave 5 up to 140 [ based on 5=1]

SILVER

I have recently switched to bearish wave counts for the near term on gold and silver but that does not change the long term bullish picture. So Silver is in wave C down which is usually a 5 wave decline. Wave iii of C is in progress and could be extended. Wave C=A points to 15.24$. Wave iii of C may extend to 15.84.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canada And Nasdaq – Technical Analysis

CANADA
The most direct effect of falling Oil is on countries like Russian Australia and yes Canada. So Canada has been making a series of lower tops since FEB that may have gone unnoticed but now it is close to breaking the neckline at 15130 below which a steep drop to 14500 could be on the cards.

 

NASDAQ

US indices are diverging with max weakness in the Nasdaq. The chart attached shows that may remain the case near term and the Nasdaq may continue to form wave 2 up for a while. Wave 3 can be presumed only after the lows break. Till then the Dow is holding out.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Asia On The Line – Technical Analysis

For a while many Asin markets are testing multi year trendlines so here is a quick look

Thailand 2013-2015 trendline resistance

Taiwan is close to the 2010-2015 trendline

Jakarta 2013-2015 trendline of the highs

Philippines is close to the 2015-2016 trendline

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Google – Wave 5 is on

Amazon sold off from the 5th wave position discussed last week. So how did Google do? I have covered this chart twice before, once in 2015 projecting 5=1 to 1100. Then I considered the 2014 period as a triangle. It still is. But one change. In 2016 I marked the rise as an ending pattern. After that prices formed a running triangle. So this running triangle is also a 4th wave. Running triangles happen in the final stages of a move so the 5th wave forming now is the final advance for Google long term. I cannot say that it is over but the next trend reversal would be important long term. The trendline of all the highs is at 1060. Once the 5th wave completes we will dip back below the 800 mark.

Dollar Index and USD GBP – Technical Analysis

Dollar Index

On the weekly charts the dollar index retraced 61.8% of the entire previous advance. Also at the point marked 3 sentiment was down to 5% bullish only. Now it is possible to mark the fall as a 5 wave decline except that wave 5 is too short and truncated. That I did not expect. However as we have moved past 97, it is a possible outcome. What this would mean is that we retrace some portion of this 5 wave fall before another decline can occur. 98 would be the first immediate hurdle. 98.23 is 38.2% of the 5 wave decline. A larger retracement would be 61.8% at 99.50. There is reason to be open to some bounce back in the dollar before another wave down starts till 96.455 holds.

USDGBP

The one currency supporting the strong dollar thesis has been the Pound. USDGBP has still to complete a 5th wave on the quarterly chart and after the 38.2% retracement and the elections the stage maybe set up. Wave 5 up for the contracct would go up to 0.90 based on 5=1

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity – Technical Analysis

Gold is sitting on its 20dma at 1263, but it has witnessed a trendline break. So I want to highlight that there were two trendline breaks in the last year and both saw steep corrections in Gold prices. So maybe I need to be open to the idea that this break too can be one. Below 1263 we would go back to test the trendline of all the lows at 1226 once more. We are in FED week and the dollar index has very low sentiment so we should be prepared for a snap back rally in the dollar and a correction in gold if it happens. This will not change the long term picture but delays the immediate rally to higher levels. In fact if we do fall that far I would be open even to my April view that we can test the trendline of the bottoms formed since 2015 at 1164 one last time. A close below 1263 would be a starting point

Copper And Gold

Copper and Gold have been having an awkward relationship for a while. While most commodities move in the same direction with a lead lag, these two have lagged to the extent that it is looking like an inverse relationship. So while both are up over two years they do so in alternation. The chart should speak for itself. So with Copper breakout last week gold sold off and I wonder if that is a trend for now. The reason for this inversion could simply be the way inflation and bond yields have been swaying causing Real interest rates to swing both ways. That has a rather direct impact on this asset class. Falling real interest rates are bullish for gold and they rise on economic demand expansion.

Zinc MCX

No respite yet for most base metals. So after the recent bounce in Zinc from the 155 level that I anticipated are we in an up trend. I am forced to check hourly charts and the recent rise appears 3 waves and done so this means there is risk of breaking below the 155 mark

Then if I draw a wider channel around prices it can go down to 148 next.

Lead MCX

Lead MCX broke its swing low. Here each correction leg is equal in size so if the last one Z is also equal we can go down to 128.

Silver MCX

Considering an alternate scenario for Silver if it continues to weaken as it closed below the averages yesterday. What this suggests is that the larger correction in Silver is still going on and we will retrace 78.6% of the 2016 rally if C=A is achieved. This is in the range of 15.30-15.20$.

In MCX terms it will mean a retest of 36000 at the lower end of the one year falling channel

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

Adam Smith Associates At UK Trade & Export Finance Conference 2017

Its a proud moment and a great pleasure for Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd for being invited as a speaker at UK Trade & Export Finance Conference scheduled on June 15 2017.

Mr Rudra Kundu, Managing Director – Adam Smith Associates will be speaking on “Maintaining competitive edge in London’s role as a financial centre” and “New entrants: Attracting institutional investors into the supply chain”.

Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd is a leading one stop shop offering offering end to end trade finance solutions to its domestic and international clients with variety of services.

The UK’s leading gathering of trade and export finance professionals, business heads and trade experts will take place at Grange Tower Bridge, London on June 15.

Some of the services offered by Adam Smith Associates to its corporate clients covers

Inland Trade Finance
• Discounting of bills under LCs
• Discounting of bills accepted by large corporates
• Discounting of bills under co-acceptances of banks

Import Trade
• Buyers credit
• Suppliers credit
• ECAs
• High seas Sale & Purchase

Exports
• Post shipment discounting under LCs of various tenures. We specialize in difficult countries and difficult bank risk distribution.
• Financing using lines of various Exim banks
• Post shipment finance of export receivable without LC (open account trades)

Other Trade Related Services
• Market information
• Strategies for Counter Trade

Commodities / Warehouse Financing
Devising Risk Mitigation Strategies

Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd provides following services to banks:
Advisory on trade finance transactions including but not limited to matters under UCP.
Refinancing especially post shipment export portfolios of banks.
Using innovative trade finance structures to tackle bad loan portfolio of banks.
Sell down and forfeiting of bank risks pertaining to trade and commodity finance deals.
Providing support in the correspondent banking and FI work to offshore banks.
Creating bulk liquidity and FX solutions.

Some of our structured trade finance and other specialized services are:
Adding financial profits to trades for large commodity companies.
Trade dispute resolution.
Escrow services.
Transaction services for SPVs.
Using our existing commodity flows for corporate funding.
Interest arbitrage deals.
Trade backed FX treasury products.
Long term receivable finance.
Project export finance.
Funding against various trade finance instruments backed by legitimate trade flows.

Visit www.adamsmith.tv for more details