Dollar Index and USD GBP – Technical Analysis

Dollar Index

On the weekly charts the dollar index retraced 61.8% of the entire previous advance. Also at the point marked 3 sentiment was down to 5% bullish only. Now it is possible to mark the fall as a 5 wave decline except that wave 5 is too short and truncated. That I did not expect. However as we have moved past 97, it is a possible outcome. What this would mean is that we retrace some portion of this 5 wave fall before another decline can occur. 98 would be the first immediate hurdle. 98.23 is 38.2% of the 5 wave decline. A larger retracement would be 61.8% at 99.50. There is reason to be open to some bounce back in the dollar before another wave down starts till 96.455 holds.

USDGBP

The one currency supporting the strong dollar thesis has been the Pound. USDGBP has still to complete a 5th wave on the quarterly chart and after the 38.2% retracement and the elections the stage maybe set up. Wave 5 up for the contracct would go up to 0.90 based on 5=1

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

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