Currency Technical Analysis


USDINR broken the May 2017 low of 63.98 [spot]. Doing so the fall in USDINR from the 68.87 high in Nov is 5 waves down. This changes the wave counts longer term and am going with the alternate that I did not consider earlier. I have been trying for a while to complete the 5th wave of the rise from the 2011 bottom. That entire rise from 45-69 then would be wave 3 circle. But here I am thinking maybe not. Maybe this whole consolidation from 69 in 2013 when RR came into the RBI to date is wave 4 and wave 5 of 3 has still to form. Wave 4 may end near 63 or might continue to develop into a triangle for the rest of the year before wave 5 starts. The reverse channel at 63 is also good reason to consider a low near 63. I will continue to explore what should be the proper wave count for this whole period, but the long term trend is up and from near 63-62.80 we should start another move up for USDINR


The Euro is pushing at the upper channel lineĀ and overdue for a decline in wave 4 back down to the lower channel line near 1.15


EURINR would complete its first wave up at larger degree and the next dip would be wave 2 of larger degree. Upper channel line at 76.17 and lower one at 74

US 10 Years T Notes

US T notes taking longer to sell off. Alternately they are forming a flag. Wave b bottomed at 61.8% retracement and wave c up might push higher before wave iii down starts.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

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