Crude prices on Mcx would be in a triangle in wave B. The triangle started to form from the second quarter of 2016. Wave E of B is the final leg down for the triangle from the upper end near 3480 to the lower end near 2790 this should be the final leg of the consolidation phase before we make it to a higher ground.
The internal wave count of the fall for gold has now become complex and so it is best to mark it overall as W. An bounce back will be an X wave.
LEAD & ALUMINIMUM
MCX was closed yesterday so using the CFD futures. Metals are mixed up with Lead [below] and Zinc in wave v of a rise, while Nickel Copper and Aluminium [below], at near term supports and bouncing up. So if 2080$ holds then we may go higher on Aluminium, but Lead is in wave v and can turn into a correction anytime.
I discussed the downside risk to crude Medium term yesterday however near term if the 50.20 support [20dma] holds, and maintains the rising channel shown on this chart, maybe wave v of C up is still on the cards. The wave i high of 49.42 has not overlapped and till that happens wave v can be kept open. Wave v of C then can still make an attempt at 53$.
Copper prices are lagging but slowly moving higher. The recent fall was 7 legs and a corrective decline. So one more move to the highs is possible in wave 5 of the rise. 429-425 are supports, and 451 near the wave 3 high or 465 to the upper channel line again are open. The Bollinger band at 445 would be an interim resistance.
Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd