Commodity – Technical Analysis


Nickel has a ending diagonal pattern at the lows the lower end support is near 558. The breakout is above 575-579. Daily momentum crossed over to the buy side as a start, so keep an eye on the next breakout as it may mark a trend reversal from down to up


Lead tried to break the double bottom support at 132 but is back above it and momentum has positive divergences and a buy mode, so till this level holds the bottom for Lead Mcx maybe considered. A move above  the 40dema and Bollinger band would further confirm strength.



Zinc has made a comeback on momentum indicators and crossed the 20dma. The breakout of the falling trendline from the Feb high is at 166.50 above which we can be in wave 3 up next. Conservatively a channel breakout has a measurement target based on taking the height of the channel and projecting it above the breakout point. That gives us 185.


Gold’s sell off yesterday makes sure that the May June rally was corrective in nature. Chances are growing that we are in a larger triangle. Initially we will test the internal trendline of the 2017 lows near 1228$, but if that breaks then a drop to 1170 cannot be ruled out. So we will watch what happens at 1228, and not preempt a bottom there. The larger triangel structure will be a very bullish set up for long term investors once complete. By July-Aug it could be done.

Aluminium MCX

MCX Aluminium prices moved up yesterday out of a narrow intraday range of the last few days. It was very close to the lower end of a channel near 119 and 38.2% retracement near 120. The move up would test the falling channel at 125.70. And a breakout above the channel would put us into wave 5 up to 140 [ based on 5=1]


I have recently switched to bearish wave counts for the near term on gold and silver but that does not change the long term bullish picture. So Silver is in wave C down which is usually a 5 wave decline. Wave iii of C is in progress and could be extended. Wave C=A points to 15.24$. Wave iii of C may extend to 15.84.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd










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