Commodity Technical Analysis

SOY BEAN NCDEX

Soy bean prices formed an expanding triangle near the 61.8% mark. Last time I wrote that a bounce can occur because of the triangle but as shown why not a bottom? Possible Wave Y is over. Either another X wave up retracing the Y or the start of a major impulse. The trend should be up as long as we are above 2650. Breakout of the triangle above 3035 to go to 3286

Copper MCX

Copper Closed the week down. Now 365 is the next support. Halting near retracements it is still possible that copper is within a larger corrective structure. The recent rally is not certainly impulsive. So if 365 breaks wee can see it go back to test the 353 low [below 2.62$ to 2.48$].

ZINC MCX

Base metals are showing a near term correction after Lead, Aluminium and Zinc look like completing near term 5 wave rallies. The indication therefore is of a positive trend ahead but after a pause correction or retracement. The size of a pullback is hard to say.

For Zinc below the 20dma at 173 is the immediate support. 167 is the 61.8% retracement mark.

CRUDE

Crude has fallen in 3 waves so far to 66% retracement. If the low of 43.65 is not broken we can start wave c up to 49.10 or higher.

Silver MCX

Reccent data from CFTC shows that bulls that were record long at the highs on Silver have given back almost all of their long positions. With sentiment at just 9% bullish we are at the fag end of the decline in gold and silver. The chart shows the falling channel for the price, that I published a while back. At yesterdays low we came close to the line and we may test it one last time in wave z down. The channel is at 35000. The RSI is also entering the oversold sub-30 range.

CORN CBT

Corn – Prices surged with the rest of the Agro prices on the international markets. Corn hit a new high as it starts a larger degree 3rd wave up. Wave 3 up points to 460 just based on 3=1. That is a normal non extended wave over 12 months.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

Currency And US 30 Year Treasury Bonds Technical Analysis

While the 10 year has already broken the rising channel 2 days ago the 30 year bonds are now at the rising trendline near 152. So a further decline in the bond market will get this second confirmation of a break down in the bond market. We would be at the start of a 3rd wave down in US bonds. [We have discussed this scenario and its impact in this months Long short report.]

USDCAD

USDCAD – the last post identified the Wave B high at 61.8%. From there we have a 5 wave decline so the down trend is established. We may get the first retracement of the fall when the 5 wave decline completes but the larger trend down will resume again, till C=A is achieved. The RSI is getting oversold. 1.33 near the wave 4 high would be a resistance level during a counter trend move up. After that we may head to 1.25 in wave 3 of C.

EURO

The euro/dollar did not achieve 1.15 and it is hard to say yet that prices have started wave 2 down. When they do we get a retracement of the entire 5 wave rise back to the wave 4 low near 1.11. Till then it is open to interpretation. But the overall picture is clear, that we are ending a 5 wave rise and due for retracement before a larger rally resumes

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Nasdaq, DAX And Karachi Index Technical Analysis

NASDAQ

So while the Dow tested its highs again the Nasdaq was again pulled down as all the FANG stocks gave up. The Nasdaq 100 index broke the 29/06 swing low. The neckline of a h&s broken the pattern points to 5420.

DAX

DAX – the German index has not confirmed a trend reversal on long term charts yet but it did form a doji star on the quarterly chart. That it did so after achieving the target of 5=1 shown by the box makes it an important candle to watch as the trend could be complete here

KARACHI 100

A very steep fall in the Karachi 100, and it is in wave 5/5, but the 5th wave did not achieve the Fibonacci or channel target. So I leave it open as to whether the final top is in or not. While possible ideally it should extend some more.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis

Copper

Copper Quarterly momentum crossed over to the buy side as a positive indication. We still have to get over the quarterly averages at 2.73 and 2.84 for a larger move to 3.80 to develop.

Gold

Gold broke the neckline of the last several months at 1230$. The neckline measurement target coincides with the 78.6% retracement near 1160. However the rising trendline from the 2015 Dec bottom is at 1173. 61.8% is at 1188. That gives us two levels to watch for oversold readings and a trend reversal to capture the bottom in gold. 1188 and 1172-1160. It is normal for wave E to either be short or go below the lower line [causing a selling exhaustion] before turning around. Right now staying below 1232 is bearish near term.

Soy Meal CBT

Soy Meal prices made a double bottom near 292$, and broke out of the falling trendine for wave of 2. A bottom maybe now in place for a larger 3rd wave up to start. Initial hurdle is 330 at 61.8% of Y. Then the X at 354 after that we should be heading to a new high above 432.Failure to go above 330 and 354 can keep us in wave 2 by some alternate patters.

Silver

Silver hit the 20dma resistance at 16.90 and sold off. Staying below this level Silver would be in wave iii down to 15.52

Wheat CBT

After being bullish global wheat prices in my last update I was negative as prices reacted from the falling channel of the last few years. But we now have a breakout so it is best to stick to the original outlook. Wheat CBT should be in wave 3/3 up now. Staying above 470 the trend is up and the next two swing resistance levels are 524 and 615. The monthly Bollinger band is also near 500. So getting past the 500-524 range would expand volatility meaningfully.

Sugar CSCE

The relentless fall in global sugar may have ended. Wave v of C down was forming for a while and extending. Now it counts as a completed 5 wave decline and yesterday’s bounce gets the RSI out of oversold territory. The recent low is near the 2016 bottom seen in sugar so it is a good level to hold near 12.5$. This is also wave 2 down for the longer term. The next move up should mark the start of a 3rd wave advance in global sugar prices.

Coffee CSCE

Coffee prices bounced back from the oversold territory, meaning an RSI of below 30 on both the daily and weekly charts. The near term a falling trendline from the wave d high is at 131, so a move above 131 should be a final confirmation of a trend reversal. The quarterly chart below shows the big picture. The development of a triangle from 2010 onwards which is mostly wave B, and sets it up for wave C up a major new bull move for Coffee prices. Lets get a little imaginative here. If C=A is achieved over 5 years Coffee prices go to 700 from 125 now. That is quite crazy. The triangle breakout will be above 168. Note it is also possible that prices remain within the triangle for now and only go to 168 to come back to 120 again. So unless we breakout the triangle is still forming. For the year ahead however a move to 168 can be seen.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

US 30 Years Treasury Bonds – Technical Analysis

The 30 year bonds are still holding up and in wave v of C up. The bonds might make one more push higher at least and get closer to the upper end of the channel before we get a meaningful trend reversal from the rising trend in bonds.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Dow Utilities – Technical Analysis

The Dow Utilities chart is a rare one we look at. But here it is. Interesting was that it just touched the trendline from the 2000-2008 highs at the recent high. The entire period fits a channel on a arithmetic scale.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

S & P 500 – Technical Analysis

S&P is in wave 5 of 5 and near the upper end of a rising channel on the monthly chart [arithmetic scale]. The next trend reversal would end the 8 year long bull market. Wave 1 of 5 was 5 months and 3 took 4 months, we are in the 3rd month of wave 5 and waiting for the next turn. Till then…

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Currency And Dollar – Technical Analysis

USDBRL

Time to consider the bull case for the USDBRL again. The real has taken support on its long term trendline and started to push higher. The wave count longer term is indicative of a 5th wave that can go to a new high. 3.16 is the lower end of the channel that is acting as the pivot for the trend. 4.11 is the mid channel level.

Dollar Index

The dollar index took support on the 20dma at 97.07 and should be heading higher towards the 38.2% retracement mark at 98.19

USDINR

USDINR – came very close to the reverse channel. That means take a line of the tops and then take a parallel trendline and put it to the lows. That was at 63.50. The upper end of the channel is at 90, 5=1 is at 85. So the risk reward favors USDINR bulls. I have been marking the rise from the 2008 low as a impulse long term and we should be about to start wave 5 of the move next based on channels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity – Technical Analysis

LEAD MCX

Lead broke past the 40dema in wave iii minor degree. Levels to watch are support at 137. 38.2% retracement at 144, 50% at 148 and 61.8% at 152

ZINC MCX

Zinc broke out of the falling channel at 165 which should act as a support and the next set of retracement levels are 172-177-182

COPPER MCX

Copper MCX – closed above the averages as they hold above the falling trend since FEB. Momentum turned positive and 362.80 is the recent low support and 385 is the next resistance

Wheat CBT

Touched the upper end of a falling channel after a corrective advance and thus is open to dropping again from 471 to the lower end of the channel near 300.

 

COFFEE CSCE

Coffee prices have not yet bottomed and had a big down day yesterday. So chances are they will slip to the neckline near 100. While this level held the last few times we need to watch this time. Agro prices in general are falling everywhere, in India and abroad and no stopping it yet.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Currency – Technical Analysis

EURO

Euro – c=a points to 1.105 and 38.2% retracement is at 1.102, the trend should still be lower.

 

USDJPY

USDJPY should continue higher in wave c up to 115. Support is near 110.60

USDGBP

USDGBP – took support on the averages and has mostly started wave 5 up. Support is near 0.783 amd 0.777 and we should be heading to test 0.808 swing high next and eventually the wave 3 high at 0.846

USDCNY

USDCNY – corrected in 3 waves in what might be a 4th wave correction in a channel. Wave 5 up could start from 6.78. I cannot rule out a dip to 6.76, while non needed, and it would be a 38.2% retracement of wave 3. 5=1 pionts to 7.04 in wave 5 up. 6.892 resistance from the falling channel where we would have to breakout for higher levels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd