Commodity Technical Analysis Report

CRUDE MCX

Crude prices on Mcx would be in a triangle in wave B. The triangle started to form from the second quarter of 2016. Wave E of B is the final leg down for the triangle from the upper end near 3480 to the lower end near 2790 this should be the final leg of the consolidation phase before we make it to a higher ground.

GOLD

The internal wave count of the fall for gold has now become complex and so it is best to mark it overall as W. An bounce back will be an X wave.

LEAD & ALUMINIMUM

MCX was closed yesterday so using the CFD futures. Metals are mixed up with Lead [below] and Zinc in wave v of a rise, while Nickel Copper and Aluminium [below], at near term supports and bouncing up. So if 2080$ holds then we may go higher on Aluminium, but Lead is in wave v and can turn into a correction anytime.

CRUDE

I discussed the downside risk to crude Medium term yesterday however near term if the 50.20 support [20dma] holds, and maintains the rising channel shown on this chart, maybe wave v of C up is still on the cards. The wave i high of 49.42 has not overlapped and till that happens wave v can be kept open. Wave v of C then can still make an attempt at 53$.

COPPER MCX

Copper prices are lagging but slowly moving higher. The recent fall was 7 legs and a corrective decline. So one more move to the highs is possible in wave 5 of the rise. 429-425 are supports, and 451 near the wave 3 high or 465 to the upper channel line again are open. The Bollinger band at 445 would be an interim resistance.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Dollar Index, USDTWD and USDSGD Technical Analysis

Dollar Index

The first five wave rise in the dollar to 94.10 about to complete.

USDTWD

The Taiwan Dollar – early days of forming a base and recovering from the lows. An X wave or a new rally? Both odds are open. Upper end of the falling channel is at 31.27 as the resistance to any X wave move up. A 5 wave rise and 3 wave correction long term are done though so odds should favour another impulse wave up.

USDSGD

USDSGD closed positive for the last two months – wave 3 of larger degree appears due to start on the monthly chart. If not at least a near term rally in the pair. Next resistance is at 1.38 and 61.8% retracement is at 1.41.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Nifty Small Cap Watch Out

Nifty Small 100 index has the most perfect chart for the set up that I have been considering for the Midcap Smallcap segment. That wave E of an expanding pattern is developing

 

This second chart published later in the evening day before to Insiders shows that momentum indicators rolled over as prices failed to breakout and today prices have broken the break down point and so wave E throwover should be compete. The implications should be going back to the lower end of this range and like the previous two occasions it can happen quite quickly.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Currency Technical Analysis Report

USDJPY

After weeks of waiting USDJPY is back to rising. It did not fall below 61.8%. I am not sure of the long term structure but even if we consider corrective waves a move up to 115 or 118 again cannot be ruled out to start with

 

USDINR

On Wednesday I rejected the idea of any last move down in the USDINR as it moved up a lot. So we started minor wave iii up as discussed and earlier expeccted. On the long term chart i have repeated the 40 month average near 64 that needs to be protected and so far as shown below. Doing so the monthly chart would set up for wave 5 longer term to start. Here the 4th wave circle retraced close to 23.6% of wave 3 [63.04]. This meets the alternation requirement between waves 2 and 4, where wave 2 was 61.8%. Even within the third wave wave 2 is a running correction and wave 4 a zig-zag, meeting alternation in structure. Wave 5 of 3 shows loss of momentum. Now from here 5=1 points to 85 in the coming year. I say year as time is never exact. On the top of the chart you see two completed cycles with momentum back below zero. So the first thing we will look for is momentum to go back into buy mode and then above zero.

US 10 Years T Notes

Thanks to Fed we have the first day of a breakout in yields. Now to watch that the trend holds and continues after the event. Confirmed would mean wave 3 to a yield above 3% in the coming months. 

EURO

The Euro is at the fag end of a 5th wave rally starting April. The triangular base between Jan-Apr, can either be just that a triangle or waves 1-2 of the larger move. We will know which later. But taken as a triangle we have just completed the first meaningful advance in the Euro from a Long term Uptrend perspective. Now you may get a retracement of the rise. If the entire rally is a larger wave 1 then wave 2 down is open to all retracements. That will provide enough meat for the Euro bears to publish the End of Euro stories all over again. The real answer will come from the markets themselves. A higher bottom long term on extreme negative sentiment is what wave 2 declines are made of. There is no end of Euro anytime soon. Currencies do not just die, currency systems do. A break of 1.187 should mark the start of a clear downtrend that can last for 1-3 months

USDMXN

USDMXN bottomed in July in 5 waves. Wave A complete it is trying to start a wave B rally for a while. A move up should at least carry it to the 38.2% retracement mark near 19.20

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

ALIMINIUM MCX

Aluminium MCX prices achieved 5=1 on this chart and closed down. Is wave 5 over? It maybe work considering if this 5 wave move can be retraced given that the trendline of the highs since 2010 at 141 and the rising channel at 143 are close. Consider yesterdays high at 141.40 as important till clearly taken out.

PALLADIUM

Palladium prices stopped at the trendline of the highs from 2010 and this could mark an important resistance or top. Without putting a number on the downside implications the trend may turn down from here [980].

COPPER

The short term decline in copper is looking like 5 waves down, meaning that it is only wave a of a correction. This raises the odds that the 5 wave advance from 2016 is complete and a more meaningful pullback near term can unfold. 2.875 is the first key support. 3.03 is resistance

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Gold, Silver & Platinum Technical Analysis

GOLD

Gold may be developing a leading diagonal as the 5 wave decline is overlapping. This would change if we fall below 1286 because then the third wave would become the shortest violating the wave count. wave A should be retraced in wave B up to 1315 or best case 1331 near 61.8% before the decline continues. Below 1286 prices may slide to 1270 near the 20 week average.

SILVER

Silver like Gold also witnessed a breakout failure and the rise so far is corrective. Unless there is new bullish evidence this pushes us back to the triangle view. The recent high would be wave D and wave E down would follow. We could spend months in a slow grind down as prices drop towards the lower end of the range near 15.30$.

PLATINIUM

As Precious metals start another corrective phase so do Platinium prices and they may decline to the lower end of this long term range. The lower line is near 822 where we should look for a possible bottom. Currently at 935

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

EURINR, USDINR and US 10 Year T Notes Technical Analysis

EURINR

The EURINR completes a 5 wave rise from April and should now be in wave 2 down, that can retrace 23.6% to 75 at least or 73.75 near 38.2% retracement

US 10 YEAR T NOTES

After a long wait the US 10 year and 30 year momentum indicators rolled over yesterday and tonight they broke the rising channel from the July low so the move up should be complete. The bond market started its next wave down. Unless it is part of a more complex rise, we should anticipate that wave 3/C down long term has finally started. Prices sold off from the 20 month averages. Next will be the broader rising channel from the March low.

USDINR

USDINR has spent a lot of time trying to move higher so it is possible that wave C down is developing into an ending pattern. The 20 week average at 64.24 is acting as a still resistance that can push prices down in wave e to 63.32. Unless we get above 64.24 this maybe the case. Once wave C is complete prices should start a prolonged advance.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Gold MCX and Gold Trend Analysis

GOLD MCX Daily

Prices closed below the 20dma and heading to the 40dema at 29400. If that breaks then the lower Bollinger band is at 29065 as the next support near a 50% retracement of wave 1.

GOLD

Gold broke below the 20dma and the rising channel for the trend. All the near term tops during 2017 that rose in 3 waves and broke the channel so far were followed by further declines. So far this looks the same. The move from 1204-1357 is 3 waves up and has broken down.

What this can mean is that the entire rise is still corrective in nature and will go back to test 1200 again. The final confirmation level is at 1278 below which the rise cannot convert to an impulse anymore. The 2016-2017 period will end up looking like a triangle when prices test the lower trendline once more. And a breakout above the neckline at 1350 will make the 2013-2017 pattern a inverted head and shoulders

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Nasdaq, Brazil, EURO, DAX & S&P 500 Technical Analysis

NASDAQ COMPOSITE

Negative divergences continue on the weekly momentum for the Nasdaq that keeps bouncing back from the 20wma support [red average], The bands are narrow and either prices can expand the bands again by breakout out upwards or else we should at least pull back to the lower Bollinger band near 6041 [Upper end 6472]

BRAZIL

Brazil is the big beneficiary of the falling dollar. The equity market there was in a bearish trend from 2010-2016 when the dollar was rising. Now it is just the opposite. Wave 2 circle did not retrace much as I was anticipating and now wave 3 circle points to 11500 odd. This is a bull market. The Indian market does not relate with this at all.

EURO

During the last week the Euro fell in 3 waves and that leaves open one last alternate that wave 5 is still forming as a triangle. Wave e of 5 can push up to 1.21 a last time.

DAX

I wrote some time back that the DAX index is a leading diagonal in wave 1. Since then we are waiting for wave 2 to complete. Wave 2 is taking the shape of an expanded flat. Wave c of 2 up is now forming and c is now =161.8 times wave a, so the Fibonacci projection has been achieved. Wave wise wave c has to be 5 waves and might need one more up down sequence to complete. After that we can expect a major 3rd wave decline in European stocks or at least the DAX as a leading indicator.

S&P 500

S&P 500 is back at the upper end of the long term channel from 2009, at 2500. The trendline of the highs from June to August goes higher to 2522.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis And Trends

ZINC

Zinc Mcx did not break the 191 support and staying above it keeps open the option of the rally in zinc resuming. The upper end of the channel is at 217 for wave 5 up.

 

LEAD MCX

Complexity can be baffling at times. So after many weeks of complex moved Lead prices are moving up again. This requires serious consideration. So we have retraced 61.8% in what could be wave 2 as a complex pattern till we hold the recent 143 support. From here 3=1 can project up to 174 in wave 3 up.

SILVER

Silver immediate support at 17.50$, a close below which opens up 17.25 and 16.80 below that.

CRUDE MCX

Crude MCX is testing the July high of 3234, above which prices can stretch to the upper end of the rising channel at 3421. Note if we make new highs we are still in wave D and the marking of D will shift from July to the current move up where it completes. 61.58% of the previous decline is at 3380 [blue line].

COPPER MCX

Copper Mcx – 38.2% retracement done in 3 waves with support at the 40dema and the recent low at 417, we can now start wave 5 up to retest the recent high of 451.

ALUMINIUM MCX

Aluminium Mcx Completed a 3 wave correction in a channel to the lower Bollinger band at 131 as the key support. Wave 5 could start anytime. 138 and 143 are two Fibonacci projections for wave 5 up based on the ratio analysis of the move so far. 20dma at 133.63 is the first resistance followed by the wave 3 high at 136.20.

COFFEE CSCE

International Coffee prices are back on track with wave 3 up starting and should now attempt to breakout of the triangle upside at 158

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd