Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq 100 – is rising in a channel. While wave 5 could have ended into the July high, the period resulted in a consolidation that looks like a running triangle. So the entire rise from the 2016 bottom is in a channel and wave 5 can go to the upper end of the channel, and the rising channel is now kissing the long term channel from the 2009 lows as well, with both converging at 6600. So unless we get an early trend reversal in price indicators that the 5th wave for the Nasdaq 100 topped, it can stretch as far as 6600 in the coming weeks. The Dow rallied earlier and now Nasdaq is playing catch up.

Currency Technical Analysis

EURO

1.152 and 1.13 are the next two fibonacci projections for the Euro on the way down. the trend down should resume and the up move yesterday maybe almost done.

USDJPY

USDJPY support is at 112.90, and heading in wave iii towards 117.95

USDINR

USDINR – two major near term support levels coming up. 61.8% at 64.59, and the 20wma at 64.45. Holding these two the next wave up to above 66 should start.

EURINR

EURINR – is in decline with the Euro and the 38.2% retracement is at 74.16 and 50% retracement is at 72.92.

Commodity Technical Analysis

GOLD MCX Daily

No change in trend or view here. A slow decline is on as the dollar rises. So the USDINR can support mcx prices even as comex prices fall but the bias is negative. The 20dma at 29563 should be the key resistance level.  Retracement levels are open at 50-61.8%

LEAD MCX

Lead Prices started to break down. They may close the month down today. This can mean that longer term we completed a 5 wave advance in a double top as shown on this weekly chart. Major support levels are 144-142 at the lower trendlines and the wave 4 swing low at 131.

ALUMINIUM MCX

A 5 wave rise done for Aluminium the next set of levels are at 135 and 131 as long as we are below the 142 mark. Below 131 we would have to be open to 120 as well.

COPPER MCX

Copper prices stopped short of a new high, so wave v of 5 was truncated. The first support is at 440 [40dema and trendline] and if that breaks we go to the wave 4 low near 417.

BSE METALS

The BSE Metal index has completed a 5 wave advance from the Sept low and possibly from the May bottom. With Base metal prices also giving up expect a deeper cut in metal stocks in the coming weeks as they give back some of the gains. Going back to the wave iv low is normal.

NATURAL GAS

Natural Gas for months is forming a triangle in what could be a right shoulder. The resistance line for the x wave is at 3.08, and the support is at 2.78, If 2.78 breaks we would head to 2.5-2.30.

BSE FMCG Index Technical Anaysis

The FMCG index has been in wave 5 long term since 2009 and it has been an extended move. It did not stop at 5=1 [circle], it did not stop at the upper end of the rising channel. The momentum has been slowing down since it hit the upper line. Two possible outcomes exist. First and primary that we are in wave IV of 5 up that itself fits a channel. A move to the lower end of the channel would complete wave IV and then wave V up would unfold to one final new high. The other alternate is to think that 2013-2017 is an expanding pattern. The time taken makes it look like this is the less likely pattern but would be a valid alternate if the rising channel for wave 5 up breaks down

US Dollar V/s Leading Currencies – Technical Analysis

USDAUD

USDAUD completed a wave 2 correction and wave 3 up should have startded. 3=1 points to 1.33 next with support near 1.26

USDCAD

USDCAD – is due to start wave iii up with iii=i pointint to 1.30, support at 1.25

USDINR

The monthly candles for USDINR show a engulfing bull pattern. The close for the month was above the previous bear pattern that had a high of 65. So 65 is an important pivot. The next move up should be seeing us up to 67 or the previous high at 68.87

USDZAR

USDZAR – or the South African Rand, wave ii pullback appears complete and wave iii up should be next. iii=i is at 14.40

Bitcoin – Where Is It Heading Technically?

BITCOIN

Bitcoin has everyone’s fascination. After each 5 wave rally an EW analyst would expect a correction, and if it is 3 waves like the last one in Sept. Now another 5 wave rise is in progress and must add at least 3 more waves up as shown to complete a 5 wave sequence before we can say this move is complete. I do believe however as discussed in the Podcast that Bitcoin is a manifestation of the liquidity bubble and therefore its final top may coincide with that of equities at some point with a lag.

Gold, Silver and Copper Technical Analysis

Silver MCX

Silver is in wave c down and c=a can point to 37608. The recent high for wave b is at 40632. Wave c may also extend lower to the 2 year trendline support that is closer to 36026. Wave c will be a 5 wave decline so till 5 waves down do not complete the move is not complete.

Copper MCX

Copper Mcx started minor wave v of 5 as a final push higher to a new high above the 466 high. Hard to put a number on how far it should go. But wave v of 5 should be final move for the last metal in the sector making a 5 wave advance.

GOLD Daily MCX

Gold was down and managed to push the daily momentum into sell mode. Gold Mcx closed very near the 40dema at 29571, below which gold should head to the lower Bollinger band at 29294. On weekly charts the 20/40 day averages are near 29090 as the next important support level. The weekly momentum also crossed over to the sell side as gold closed down for the week.

US 10 Years T Notes Technical Analysis

US 10 Years T Notes

The only reason I can think that drove fear into Indian markets would be the rising dollar accompanied by rising bond yields. The US 10 year treasury notes on Friday saw a bid dip closer to the wave 1 low. If broken it would confirm start of wave 3 up for bond yields. The 10 year notes should yields near 2.64% in wave 3.

Commodity Technical Analysis Report

SILVER MCX

Silver prices started to bounce back along with gold in wave b of a decline. Wave b should be a retracement of the fall that can test the previous swing high of the 20dma. These are at 40145 and 40595. Wave c down should eventually carry us closer to 36000

GOLD

Gold retraced 61.8% of the entire advance seen from Jul-Sep 2017. The rise was corrective in nature and therefore the retracement should not mark a major bottom. But a short term low may finally be in place. A bounce back to the averages or the previous swing high cannot be ruled out. 1297-1313, is what we are looking at on the upside before the move down resumes.

CRUDE

Crude has fallen in 5 waves from the recent high and is mostly wave a of E down. Not certainly complete yet. 49.42 and 48.15 are the next two support levels.

COPPER

Wave iv of 5 complete wave v of 5 in a final push up should test the 3.16 high. 2.97 is the support.

LEAD MCX

Lead MCX prices completed a 5 wave advance near the upper end of a rising channel. So expect a correction retracement or consolidation to follow. Upside maybe limited near term above 171.10, the high made.

ALUMINIUM MCX

Aluminium MCX took support on the 20dma at 136 and wave iii of 5 can go up to 146

ZINC MCX

Zinc completed a 5 wave advance short of the upper channel  at 221. Unless we are extending beyond that the move maybe complete and we could see a fresh correction or consolidation here on. Upside maybe limited. A retracement of the entire 5 wave advance is also not ruled out but we need to see the initial waves develop before judging the pattern. The lower end of the channel at 201 is the first support. The wave 4 low at 190 a major support.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Dollar Index, USDJPY & USDINR Technical Analysis

DOLLAR INDEX

The dollar index completed its first impulse wave since the bottom in Sept and at the wave IV high of the previous decline. So we are dipping in wave II down and should find support at 93 or 92.60 after which wave III up may start.

USDJPY

USDJPY completed a 5 wave advance and is pulling back in a minor wave ii. 38.2% near 111.20 is a normal pullback. 110.50 and 109.70 are the next two important retracements.

USDINR

USDINR – 3 wave correction complete in a channel the next move should be higher. Wave v up should be next and may either test the wave iii high at 65.90 or stretch as far as 66.45 before it is complete.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd