Dollar Index, USDJPY & USDINR Technical Analysis


The dollar index completed its first impulse wave since the bottom in Sept and at the wave IV high of the previous decline. So we are dipping in wave II down and should find support at 93 or 92.60 after which wave III up may start.


USDJPY completed a 5 wave advance and is pulling back in a minor wave ii. 38.2% near 111.20 is a normal pullback. 110.50 and 109.70 are the next two important retracements.


USDINR – 3 wave correction complete in a channel the next move should be higher. Wave v up should be next and may either test the wave iii high at 65.90 or stretch as far as 66.45 before it is complete.


Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd


Trade Finance News, Updates & Trends Across The World

Banks team up with IBM in trade finance blockchain

While International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) is not typically viewed as a tech company at the bleeding edge, blockchain is one area where Big Blue is leading the way. A recent survey of company founders, executives, managers, and IT leaders pegged IBM as the overwhelming leader, a result that bodes well for IBM’s nascent blockchain business.


AfDB releases second Trade Finance in Africa survey report, “Overcoming Challenges”

The African Development Bank (AfDB) has released its second Trade Finance in Africa survey report: “Trade Finance in Africa: Overcoming Challenges”. Building on the findings of the maiden 2013 survey, this new report (covering the period 2013–2014) goes even further to gauge other aspects of bank-intermediated trade finance, such as the challenges encountered by SMEs and first time trade finance clients. The report is therefore based on the combined data from the 2013 and 2015 surveys. The report’s main findings are outlined below:

The value of bank-intermediated trade finance in Africa in 2013 and 2014 is estimated at US $430 billion and US $362 billion, respectively. Put differently, banks support about one third of total trade in Africa.


Standard Chartered wraps up new trade finance partnerships

Standard Chartered has announced a new set of partnerships with TradeIX, for the digitisation of trade finance and Infor to put supply chain information on the cloud. The bank has worked with TradeIX to roll out a new open blockchain platform for trade finance, allowing corporates a “connected and secure”


Ghana concludes USD 1.3 billion trade finance deal

Ghana’s Cocoa Board has concluded a USD 1.3 billion trade finance deal, notching up a quarter-century of such deals.

Ghana Cocoa Board  – known as Cocobod – has successfully concluded the arrangement of a USD 1.3 billion pre-export receivables backed trade finance facility, marking a quarter century of such deals since the first time of going to market in 1993.

The facility followed the instruction of a range of banks, working alongside Ghana International Bank, as initial mandated lead arranger, to carry out the trade financing. Rabobank, Crédit Agricole, Natixis, Standard Bank and Sumitomo Mitsui all acted as bookrunners.

They were joined by a group of supporting banks, such as Bank of China, Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ Bank, Commerzbank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Rand Merchant Bank, Société Générale, ABN AMRO, Standard Chartered Bank, Barclays Bank and others as arrangers.


“No one tells you that trade finance can be really fun”

Invest more in young talent: when it comes to how the trade finance industry can best tackle its gender bias, Emma Clark’s message is clear. In this, the next edition of GTR’s series about inspirational women in trade finance, Sanne Wass talks to Falcon Group’s head of business development.

For Emma Clark, if things get a little too easy, they become dull. In her professional life, she heads up Falcon Group’s global business development, a role in which she often finds herself racking up the airmiles, heading out into the world to help companies expand to new export markets. She says she loves her job, because she helps “solve problems that no one else can fix”.


Global Trade Finance Market 2017- BNP Paribas, Citigroup, HSBC

Worldwide Trade Finance Market 2017presents a widespread and fundamental study of Trade Finance industry along with the analysis of subjective aspects which will provide key business insights to the readers. Global Trade Finance Market 2017 research report offers the analytical view of the industry by studying different factors like Trade Finance market growth, consumption volume, market trends and Trade Finance industry cost structures during the forecast period from 2017 to 2022.

Trade Finance market studies the competitive landscape view of the industry. The Trade Finance report also includes development plans and policies along with manufacturing processes. The major regions involved in Trade Finance Market are (United States, EU, China, and Japan).

Global Trade Finance Market 2017- BNP Paribas, Citigroup, HSBC

Trade Finance Market Size, Share, Trends Analysis and Growth Forecast by Product Type and Application By 2022

Trade Finance Market Report covers the present scenario and the growth prospects of the Trade Finance Industry for 2017-2022. Trade Finance Market Report contains industry overview with growth analysis and futuristic cost, revenue, demand and supply data. The research report introduce incorporates analysis of definitions, classifications, application and industry chain structure. Besides this, the Trade Finance Market report also consists of development trends and key region’s development status. The report covers the market landscape and its growth prospects over the coming years.

Trade Finance Market Size, Share, Trends Analysis and Growth Forecast by Product Type and Application By 2022

2017 Rethinking Trade & Finance

With 255 responses from banks located in 98 countries, as well as various contributions from leading experts in the field, “Rethinking Trade & Finance” is the most extensive gauge of the trends and outlook of the global trade finance industry.  It aims to provide insight and analysis to help readers formulate strategy and make decisions that will advance the evolution of global trade.

The 2017 edition comes at a transformational moment in the history of trade and the global economic system. The report has its roots at the peak of the global financial crisis, and has since earned its place as a leading publication on the subject of trade, finance and economic inclusiveness.

The Report encompasses four major sections of content linked to the pillars of the Banking Commission’s strategy. It focuses on the state of the trade finance market; trade and supply chain finance; policy, advocacy and inclusiveness around global trade; and digitisation and the state of FinTech.

2017 Rethinking Trade & Finance

Access to trade finance

Engaging in world trade holds enormous potential for business yet many companies, especially small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), depend on access to banking services in order to unlock new markets. Trade finance allows companies to mitigate the risks associated with importing or exporting goods and services, permitting world trade to flow in a predictable and secure manner.

Trade finance has been a key catalyst of the expansion of international trade in the past century, and bank-intermediated transactions now represent more than a third of world trade, equal to trillions of dollars each year.

More than simply maintaining our international trading system though, trade finance is essential for the future outlook of global growth. SMEs are the backbone of the global economy, representing around 95% of the world’s companies and 60% of private sector jobs, and play a great role in promoting employment and social cohesion.

The supply or shortage of trade finance hurts SMEs the most, and thus has negative knock-on effects for economies and families across the globe.

Access to trade finance

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Above news update and trends are sourced from internet and are purely meant for reading on the related subject and for information. Adam Smith Associate is not responsible for any of the content and nor it is meant for any commercial benefits.


Commodity Technical Analysis Report


Crude prices on Mcx would be in a triangle in wave B. The triangle started to form from the second quarter of 2016. Wave E of B is the final leg down for the triangle from the upper end near 3480 to the lower end near 2790 this should be the final leg of the consolidation phase before we make it to a higher ground.


The internal wave count of the fall for gold has now become complex and so it is best to mark it overall as W. An bounce back will be an X wave.


MCX was closed yesterday so using the CFD futures. Metals are mixed up with Lead [below] and Zinc in wave v of a rise, while Nickel Copper and Aluminium [below], at near term supports and bouncing up. So if 2080$ holds then we may go higher on Aluminium, but Lead is in wave v and can turn into a correction anytime.


I discussed the downside risk to crude Medium term yesterday however near term if the 50.20 support [20dma] holds, and maintains the rising channel shown on this chart, maybe wave v of C up is still on the cards. The wave i high of 49.42 has not overlapped and till that happens wave v can be kept open. Wave v of C then can still make an attempt at 53$.


Copper prices are lagging but slowly moving higher. The recent fall was 7 legs and a corrective decline. So one more move to the highs is possible in wave 5 of the rise. 429-425 are supports, and 451 near the wave 3 high or 465 to the upper channel line again are open. The Bollinger band at 445 would be an interim resistance.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd


Dollar Index, USDTWD and USDSGD Technical Analysis

Dollar Index

The first five wave rise in the dollar to 94.10 about to complete.


The Taiwan Dollar – early days of forming a base and recovering from the lows. An X wave or a new rally? Both odds are open. Upper end of the falling channel is at 31.27 as the resistance to any X wave move up. A 5 wave rise and 3 wave correction long term are done though so odds should favour another impulse wave up.


USDSGD closed positive for the last two months – wave 3 of larger degree appears due to start on the monthly chart. If not at least a near term rally in the pair. Next resistance is at 1.38 and 61.8% retracement is at 1.41.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

How Innovative Trade Finance Structures Can Remedy the Bad Loan Portfolios of Banks


Your social media profile says a lot about you. Who you’re friends with, where you work or go to school, and there might be a picture or two you don’t want the world to see.

If we as people want to make it as professionals then we need to monitor what goes into our profile and weed out unprofessional material, which could potentially damage that reputation.

The same is true for financial institutions. They need to pride themselves with a friendly profile to represent the values of the institution. We have Facebook profiles and banks have loan portfolios.

A financial institution is only as strong as its profitability, capital strength, and asset quality. However, poorly managed portfolios can have negative effects for the bank’s image and credit worthiness.

This guide will help you understand a new remedy to bad loan portfolios.

What Are Loan Portfolios?

Bank Manager approving loan

Banks rely in great part on their ability to provide loans to people. Lending is a crucial part of the prosperity of financial institutions. Loan portfolios are loans held for repayment and a great asset and key factor for the revenue of banks.

The value of a loan portfolio depends on the principal and interest owed, and the credit worthiness of the loan.

They can also bring great risk to the banks economy if not managed properly. Loan portfolios must go through annual audits to access the risks and identify control breaches.

What Are Trade Finance Structures?

Structured Trade Finance (STF) is a type of debt finance. This type of finance route is used as an alternative to lending.

Developing countries use this type of finance in relation to cross border transactions. The goal is to promote trade by using non-standard security.

It’s commonly known as a commodity loan. What makes STF loans appealing to borrowers is because the strength of the transaction is not followed as closely as a typical loan.

The focus of this loan is the cash flows as a result of trade. Also, the transactions aren’t reflected in the balance sheet, which means it helps with the flexibility of the credit terms with the exporters.

How to Combine Both

Since STF is a type of debt finance, and an alternative to lending, it registers differently on the record books. This is a solution for many bank portfolios because the loan terms aren’t as closely monitored.

The cash flow is what shows on this type of loan, and the interest owed and credit worthiness is more lenient. Due to the trade in the transactions, the jurisdictions are also specific to the country where the trade is taking place.

Banks who want to clean up a portfolio can benefit from this type of loan because the cash flow will weight more than the interest owed on the loan. If you have any more questions on how STF can remedy a poorly managed loan portfolio is always a good idea to consult finance advisory.

If you want to stay on top of the latest news and trends in finance, follow the Adam Smith Associates Blog.

5 Exciting Global Trends in Trade Finance

Businesses thrive under pressure. And while every year brings its own set of challenges, it also brings its new sets of opportunity. Thus, as we look forward to the final quarter of 2017 and the beginning of 2018, it is exciting to consider potential innovations in trade finance.

Here are some trends to look forward to in the next few years. While they will prove to be challenging, they also prove to be exciting opportunities for those looking to invest in trade.

Faster Manufacturing

Just as trade finance played a role in the early development of international trade, it’s also played a role in its innovation. One incredible way in which this has happened was through the creation of a faster rate of manufacturing.

International trade has encouraged a number of companies to develop faster mechanisms of development. This has allowed more products to be put on the market at a faster rate due to technologies such as 3D printing.

While these technologies have provided a number of challenges to manufacturers, in the long run, they will result in increased capacity for businesses. This is good news for investors and customers alike.

The Role of Robotics in Trade Finance

A 3D Printer in action
3D Printing, Robotics in Trade Finance

Like 3D printing, robotics is a relatively new trend in the economy that’s bound to cause a few challenges. For investors, it’s also an unavoidable reality.

The best thing you can do is take advantage of the robotics movement. That could involve deeper investment in manufacturers or taking advantage of the wide variety of robotics ETFs on the market.

Either way, smart investors will treat this as an opportunity for growth.

The Continued Rise of E-Commerce

E-commerce has been growing for over a decade. And that trend is continuing on an international scale today.

For investors, this means there is time to develop a strategy that situates around the continued growth of this consumption method. It’s clear that e-commerce is so much more than just a passing trend: so make sure you give it the financial respect that it deserves.

The Role of Blockchain

Blockchain is going to play an absolutely tremendous role in trade. Blockchain companies offer a number of opportunities to the discerning investor. Whether it’s the ever-constant benefits of operating as a digitized company or the elimination of unpaid settlements, Blockchain’s growth is an exciting trend for trade investors around the world.

Combatting a Trade-Hostile Environment

While the current environment offers a number of opportunities to investors, it is not perfect. Between the EU’s imperiled existence and the rise of trade-hostile politicians around the world, there are policy dangers in the current business environment.

While weaker investors will flee, this is not a smart choice. The best option is to stay on top of the news and look for ways to thrive in the current market. By making these choices, you are far more likely to ensure your success.

Get Ahead Of The Curve

If you want to succeed in a challenging business environment, you will need to innovate. We’re here to help you with that.

We’re committed to helping traders around the world succeed. Whether it’s through commodities or global trade, we can play a role in your success.

For more information on what you can gain by working with us, contact us today!

4 Current Commodity Tips You Need to Know About


Commodities are an incredibly strong investment choice. A great way to build a diverse portfolio, they lack the volatility of stocks while providing great room for financial growth.

But investing in commodities without knowing what you’re doing is a bad idea.

If you want to make this investment, you’ll need to develop an intelligent strategy. Here are some commodity tips to help you make that move.

Commodities Explained

Before you read any other commodity tips, you need to understand the concept. Commodities are structured trades around the delivery, sale, import, and export of a particular good. Popular commodities include oil, gold, and soybeans.

The most popular strategy for investing in commodities is signing a futures contract. These ensure that you will own the commodity for a set amount of time before selling it on a certain date at a specific price.

Here are a few tips for making the most out of your commodity trades in 2017.

Why ETFs Are A Good Choice

If you’re looking for an effective way to invest in commodities, one of the best ways to do it is through ETFs. ETFs, or Exchange-traded funds, can either monitor a commodity or a specific market index.

ETFs can be a great way for beginners to invest in commodities. They are easy to manage and involve a lot less red tape than a futures index. While investing in ETFs is not the only way to make a profit off of a commodity investment, it is the best way to get acquainted.

How To Use a Short Position

Many have a strong preference for the simple game of going long on their commodities. But this can be a mistake. There’s a lot of money to be made off of the short sell, and it also isn’t particularly difficult.

If you detect a market depreciation, you should sell shares in a commodity. Let the commodity depreciate in value: when you feel it has bottomed out and will experience a resurgence in value, you should buy shares.

This will allow you to minimize the cost of purchasing valuable commodities while profiting off of purchases of a commodity at a low value. Every trader should stop worrying and love the short.

Read The News (Financial and Otherwise)

Commodities are very complex. But in a way, they can also be relatively simple to understand. As a matter of fact, indexes for every commodity from corn to currency will appear in the newspaper. And not just in the business section.

Staying on top of everything from policy to boardroom rumors can help you make the right decision. So devote at least an hour to the news each day.

Be An Oil Skeptic

Oil is one of the most popular commodities. And while it can perform well or poorly in various technical analyses, an essential part of risk mitigation involves taking a look at the international political environment.

Whether it’s through long-term transformations in the energy market or instability in OPEC nations, the future for oil is questionable. In the name of risk mitigation, we would advise approaching oil with caution.

Beyond Commodity Tips: Work With Us

Tips can take you far. But you can go even further by working with seasoned financial professionals.

We’re experts in various areas of trading. One of these areas is commodities trading. But whether you’re looking to succeed at the trading of commodity ETFs or to continue boosting an already thriving portfolio, we’re the best people to work with.

Contact us to take your trading strategy to the next level.

Trade Finance News, Update & Trends Around The World

Bank Of America Merrill Lynch Supports Blockchain Innovation For Trade Finance

In an interview released on September 22, 2017, Peter Jameson, co-head of product management, GTS EMEA at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, spoke on the merits of blockchain technology and what it can bring to trade finance.

Jameson’s take on blockchain technology is optimistic and he thinks it can provide immediate benefits. He said, “The distributed nature of blockchain means that you could quite easily move from a place where a lot of things have to happen in sequence to a technology where a lot of the players involved in the transaction can do what they need to do all at the same time.” The so-called atomic swap, or instantaneous exchange of ownership, can easily be facilitated by blockchain-based settlement systems and executable distributed code contracts (also called smart contracts). Jameson said this capability is very powerful, given “the slow nature of some of the trade transactions today.”


ICOs: the next goldmine for trade finance lenders?

An increasing number of non-bank lenders are looking to initial coin offerings (ICOs) as a source of funds for trade finance lending.

ICOs – also referred to as token sales – are unregulated means of crowdfunding, using cryptocurrency. In theory, through an ICO, you can raise money from anybody, anywhere in the world.

This is done by issuing digital tokens. Early backers are usually motivated by a prospective return on their investment, as a startup’s success would often translate into a higher token value.

For trade finance lenders, it offers access to an unorthodox – and, theoretically, unlimited – pool of investors in a market that is booming. In July, a report by research firm Autonomous found that startups had raised in total a record US$1.27bn in the first half of 2017 through ICOs, while the top four ICOs of the year, according to research firm Smith and Crown, have to date raised US$660mn between them.


The C-Suite Challenges of a Trade Finance Bank

An insight into the challenges that plague the C-Suite of a bank determined to lead the trade finance business. Is Digitization the answer?

Trade Finance has been a well established and important business for Banks and Financial Institutions. Hardly any domestic or international Trade activity can take place safely and successfully without some form of trade financing, in fact as much as 80% of annual global merchandise trade is enabled through some form of trade financing. This financing can range from traditional instruments like Letters of Credit, Bank Guarantees to a more contemporary form of open account based supply chain financing.


Trade Finance Revenues Slip $2.8 Billion At Top Banks

Top banking firms across the globe saw a $2.8 billion decline in transaction banking revenues in the first half of the year, marking a seven-year low for this area of banking, finds a new report from analysis firm Coalition.

Reports Tuesday (Sept. 19) revealed news that global transaction banking revenues jumped 4 percent year over year, hitting $18.6 billion for the first half of the year. The Americas and Asia led the increase, which also enjoyed a spike thanks to cash management revenues, which saw $11 billion in revenues in H1, a 7 percent increase and a six-year high. Coalition analysts pointed to an increase in deposit productivity.

Citigroup, HSBC and JPMorgan led the transaction banking and cash management increases, researchers noted. But the drop in trade finance reflected a decline in commodities trade finance, with corporate customers reducing activity, especially in Asia, the report found.


Trade finance fund may be an answer as Fed, ECB prepare to unwind

As the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB) prepare to unwind their easy money policy, which was in place since the financial crisis almost a decade ago, funds which are into trade finance among others may benefit.

With a rebound expected in global trade, and as banks become vary to finance companies in need of working capital, alternative sources like trade finance funds are gaining prominence even as analysts are expecting turbulent times in stock markets, which have been hitting record highs amid growing risks including geopolitical tensions and rising global debt.

“It’s a [Trade Finance] fund that will benefit from rising rates. In a rising rate scenario, equities and bonds take a beating, and this [trade finance] is an investment in the real economy,” said Doug Bitcon, head of credit strategies at Rasmala.


ABN Amro implements CBA trade finance front-end across global operations

Norwegian software vendor Commercial Banking Applications (CBA), today announced that ABN AMRO will be implementing the new IBAS Customer Front-End System for Trade Finance across its global operations as part of a project to offer additional functionality to customers, increase efficiency and reduce total cost of ownership.

The new IBAS front-end interfaces seamlessly with CBA’s IBAS Global Trade Finance Factory (IBAS GTF) mid- and back office solution. IBAS GTF is already being used by ABN AMRO to manage its trade finance operations across Europe, Asia Pacific and North America. The bank expects to put the new IBAS front-end into production in Q4 2017, replacing Surecomp’s allNETT solution in the Netherlands and manual processes elsewhere.


Trade finance revenues hit seven-year low

Global trade finance revenues reached their lowest level in seven years, with a 5% decline year-on-year for the first half of 2017.

Total trade finance revenues for the ten largest global transaction banks (Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Barclays, BNP Paribas, CITI, Deutsche Bank, HSBC, JP Morgan, Société Générale, Standard Chartered and Wells Fargo) fell to US$2.8bn compared to US$2.9bn in the same period last year, according to the latest report by analytics company Coalition, which monitors bank activity.

Trade finance revenues comprise of traditional trade finance such as LCs as well as structured trade finance products. Structured trade finance revenue declined significantly, driven by reduced commodity trade finance activity across all regions, Coalition’s research director Eric Li tells GTR.



Globalisation and the proliferation of technology have transformed the business world as we know it. But digitalisation is a priority for one industry in particular: trade finance. Greater use of technology could bring numerous benefits to the industry and even help plug the trade-finance financing gap—estimated at US$1.6 trillion by the Asian Development Bank (ADB).

As the ICC (International Chamber of Commerce) Banking Commission’s latest Global Survey on Trade Finance highlights, however, this is also a sector that has yet to fully realise the benefits of new technology. Fortunately, there is plenty that can be done to accelerate the digitalisation of the industry.


AfDB, UBAF to Co-Sponsor Seminar on International Trade Finance

The African Development Bank (AfDB), in partnership with the Union de Banques Arabes et Françaises (UBAF), will co-sponsor a seminar on international trade finance in Abidjan, Côte d’Ivoire, from 3 – 5 October 2017.

Representatives of banking institutions from Côte d’Ivoire, Mali, Benin, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Togo, Senegal, Chad, Gabon and Niger will take part in this event, with the goal of improving their professional practice in international trade finance. Issues related to specific foreign trade financial products and the risks associated with managing these operations will be addressed.

This seminar will enable participants master trade finance issues, particularly documentary credit and standby letters of credit. It will also provide information on issues involved and characteristics of various trade finance products, including credit risk, conformity, communication and tools through practical case studies of traditional and structured transactions for commodities financing.


Commerzbank names Asia trade finance head

Deepan Dagur has been named head of trade finance and cash management, Asia, at Comerzbank.

Dagur is based in Singapore, reporting to Nick Johnson, regional board member for Asia, and March Kirchhoff, global head of trade finance and cash management.

He replaces Brigitte Volz, who took over a new role in the operational development group. He joins from ANZ, where he spent five years in various senior transaction banking roles. He previously worked with Standard Chartered, consultancy Bain and Company, investment bank Salomon Smith Barney and UBS Warburg.


$1.5 Trillion Trade Finance Gap Persists Despite Fintech Breakthroughs

Businesses of all sizes continue to struggle to access sufficient credit, resulting in a global trade finance gap of $1.5 trillion in 2016, according to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) Brief released on September 5. Developing Asia’s share of the trade finance gap was 40% of the global total.

In its fifth annual study, 2017 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey, ADB quantifies market gaps for trade finance and explores their impact on growth and jobs through a survey of over 515 banks and 1,336 firms from 103 countries. While the global trade finance gap stabilized in 2016 compared to the 2015 record high of $1.6 trillion, it still translated to missed growth opportunities and job creation.

“A sizeable trade finance gap is a drag on trade, growth, and job creation,” said Steven Beck, Head of Trade Finance at ADB. “We hope the results of the survey will encourage private and public sectors to ramp up collaborative efforts to improve businesses’ access to trade finance. Our Trade Finance Program (TFP) is here to assist and address these market gaps.”



What is happening to global trade?

There are three forces driving the US$1.5 trillion trade finance gap:

  • High number of rejected trade finance applications from the Asia Pacific (APAC) region
  • High rejection rate of applications from SMEs and midcap organizations
  • Reduced lending by banks to SMEs due to perceived risk (Know-Your-Customer issues) and declining profitability in trade financing

Taking a deeper dive into the trade-finance shortfall, the ADB report says Asia and Pacific are continuing to drive this gap. The general lack of trade finance provision is due to a high number of rejected applications – against the backdrop of the largest number of proposals/requests made for trade finance (see chart below).

It’s likely to be the perceived risk of emerging market financing that is driving this shortfall.



Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Above news update and trends are sourced from internet and are purely meant for reading on the related subject and for information. Adam Smith Associate is not responsible for any of the content and nor it is meant for any commercial benefits


Nifty Small Cap Watch Out

Nifty Small 100 index has the most perfect chart for the set up that I have been considering for the Midcap Smallcap segment. That wave E of an expanding pattern is developing


This second chart published later in the evening day before to Insiders shows that momentum indicators rolled over as prices failed to breakout and today prices have broken the break down point and so wave E throwover should be compete. The implications should be going back to the lower end of this range and like the previous two occasions it can happen quite quickly.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd


Currency Technical Analysis Report


After weeks of waiting USDJPY is back to rising. It did not fall below 61.8%. I am not sure of the long term structure but even if we consider corrective waves a move up to 115 or 118 again cannot be ruled out to start with



On Wednesday I rejected the idea of any last move down in the USDINR as it moved up a lot. So we started minor wave iii up as discussed and earlier expeccted. On the long term chart i have repeated the 40 month average near 64 that needs to be protected and so far as shown below. Doing so the monthly chart would set up for wave 5 longer term to start. Here the 4th wave circle retraced close to 23.6% of wave 3 [63.04]. This meets the alternation requirement between waves 2 and 4, where wave 2 was 61.8%. Even within the third wave wave 2 is a running correction and wave 4 a zig-zag, meeting alternation in structure. Wave 5 of 3 shows loss of momentum. Now from here 5=1 points to 85 in the coming year. I say year as time is never exact. On the top of the chart you see two completed cycles with momentum back below zero. So the first thing we will look for is momentum to go back into buy mode and then above zero.

US 10 Years T Notes

Thanks to Fed we have the first day of a breakout in yields. Now to watch that the trend holds and continues after the event. Confirmed would mean wave 3 to a yield above 3% in the coming months. 


The Euro is at the fag end of a 5th wave rally starting April. The triangular base between Jan-Apr, can either be just that a triangle or waves 1-2 of the larger move. We will know which later. But taken as a triangle we have just completed the first meaningful advance in the Euro from a Long term Uptrend perspective. Now you may get a retracement of the rise. If the entire rally is a larger wave 1 then wave 2 down is open to all retracements. That will provide enough meat for the Euro bears to publish the End of Euro stories all over again. The real answer will come from the markets themselves. A higher bottom long term on extreme negative sentiment is what wave 2 declines are made of. There is no end of Euro anytime soon. Currencies do not just die, currency systems do. A break of 1.187 should mark the start of a clear downtrend that can last for 1-3 months


USDMXN bottomed in July in 5 waves. Wave A complete it is trying to start a wave B rally for a while. A move up should at least carry it to the 38.2% retracement mark near 19.20

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd