Trade and Commodity Finance News Trend Around the World

 ICC Banking Commission launches working group on digitalisation of trade finance
The ICC Banking Commission has launched a working group to coordinate all work relating to the digitalisation of trade finance. The group aims to help the trade finance industry accelerate its progress towards greater digitalisation.

The trade finance industry is undergoing a massive transformation – from time-consuming and cumbersome manual processes involving paper-based instruments such as Letters of Credit to an automated and digitised future.

Source: https://iccwbo.org/media-wall/news-speeches/icc-banking-commission-launches-working-group-digitalisation-trade-finance/

Maersk ventures into trade finance
To make overseas exports easier for Indian companies, especially SMEs, Denmark-based AP Moller – Maersk, one of the largest container shipping companies globally, has set up a new business vertical, Maersk Trade Finance.

In a nutshell, Maersk Trade Finance is a digital platform with pre-shipment and post shipment credit facilities. It enables exporters – manufacturers or traders – to not only get the cargo shipping services online but also apply for funds that can be used either to pay for the shipment or to invest in new orders

Source: http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/logistics/maersk/article9717910.ece

International Chamber of Commerce calls for UN action to address S$1.6 trillion trade finance gap in SMEs globally
The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) has called for action from United Nations to address the US$1.6 trillion trade finance gap in the Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) sector globally.

Highlighting that short-term financing is an essential tool to support small business growth and sustainability, ICC said yet a growing trade finance shortfall hurts companies and countries that need it the most.

World trade relies heavily on reliable sources of financing—both long-term (for capital investments) and short-term. The latter—commonly referred to as “trade finance”—is the basis on which a significant proportion of world trade operates.

Source: http://knnindia.co.in/news/newsdetails/global/international-chamber-of-commerce-calls-for-un-action-to-address-s16-trillion-trade-finance-gap-in-smes-globally

Belarusbank seals deal with EDB on $40m loan for trade financing
The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) and ASB Belarusbank signed an agreement on financing foreign trade operations of Belarusbank clients in the EDB member states, BelTA learned from the EDB official website. The relevant agreement was signed by EDB Managing Director for Assets and Liabilities Dmitry Ladikov-Royev and ASB Belarusbank Executive Director Viktor Perepelitsa, the post on the website reads.

http://eng.belta.by/economics/view/belarusbank-seals-deal-with-edb-on-40m-loan-for-trade-financing-102073-2017/

Chinese Banks Pained By Shifting Position In Global Trade Finance
China’s corporate banking sector is getting hit with a bit of a setback as more companies look outside China for supply chain financing.

New research from East and Partners, released this week, discovered that CFOs the world over are changing their supply  chain financing practices as they plan to reduce the number of banks from which they access this type of financing. Currently, companies surveyed use an average of 14 supply chain financing banks, researchers said.

Source: http://www.pymnts.com/news/2017/china-corporate-banking-supply-chain-trade-finance/

ADB seals first trade finance deal in Fiji
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has signed its first trade finance deals in Fiji, with two agreements with the Home Finance Company (HFC Bank).

A revolving credit facility and a credit guarantee facility are worth a combined US$4mn and will help HFC support local exporters in key areas such as sugar, copra and other agricultural goods.

http://www.gtreview.com/news/asia/adb-seals-first-trade-finance-deal-in-fiji/

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Commodity, Dollar, US 10 Years Treasury Notes and Currency – Technical Analysis

US 10 Years T Notes

No change here – the rising 10 year notes, meaning lower US yields continue to indicate the short term risk off mode of US markets.

CRB Index

Simple progression for the CRB index – 5 waves up and then a 61.8% retracement. Next wave iii up should start.

USDCNY

I have flipped from expecting a smaller degree 4th wave or larger degree 4th wave on this contract. This week break of the rising channel from the 2015 low should mean that it is a larger degree wave 4. EWI thinks the larger 3 wave rise is A-B-C, but I keeping the fall a 4th wave till the 23.6% retracement mark near 6.75. Will wave 4 end in A-B-C as shown or continue to form a triangle over many months? We will see. Below 6.75 it would be better to consider more bearish options on the USDCNY.

US Dollar Index

The US dollar index made a new low as it starts wave v of 3 down towards 95. The falling dollar is gathering momentum against all odds. The sentiment that was an extreme 5% bullish went back to 14% based on the Daily Sentiment index. The pace of the fall might accelerate from here once 96.50 breaks. We should be open to targets overshooting quickly as well. In fact if any this one macro trend could end up being the reason that the RBI actually cuts interest rates this week. To keep the rupee from getting too strong. Will be interesting to see what they do and why this week given the mix of diverging factors at work.

Euro

Reviewing the Monthly charts today as we ended the Month yesterday. The Euro closed well above the 20 month average of 1.094 which is now a major support or pivot for the trend. This after 2 positive divergences in the RSI indicator between 2015-2016. The next hurdle is the 40 month average near 1.15.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Amazon – Dont You Dare This

Don’t You Dare this Amazon – but I would not have looked at the chart if it was not all over the news for the new record in price. Now if something is being watched so closely that it does not get missed by all the media it must carry a lot of emotion with it. The chart from the 2015 low marks as a 5 wave rise, where 3<1, and so 5<1 must also be true. The move up yesterday kissed the trendline from the wave 1 and 3 tops. So is wave 5 over. The weekly chart shows us to be in wave v of 5, so this is the final wave in the structure so far. So watch the next turn lower in Amazon closely as it can mark the end of a 5 wave rise and a correction. But that has not yet happened but we could be close.

 

Even on a Quarterly chart from 2001 it can look like this. Wave 5 of 5 up in progress.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Commodity – Technical Analysis

Rough Rice CBT

International prices of Rice are due to start higher. Now I have said that for 2 years. Prices did not fall below the 9$ mark much but spent this time forming an ending triangle in wave Z that is the last phase of a consolidation long term. So now that prices have broken out of the wedge we should be well on our way into a third wave for Rice that should eventually go past the wave 1 peak of 24$. The breakout from the trendline is above 13$.

 

Cocoa CSCE

Cocoa prices have bottomed near the 1880 mark twice before and moved up by nearly 70%. So with the daily RSI showing positive divergences, the monthly RSI developing a possible positive divergence [closing tonight], and from the oversold territory as seen below, chances are we have a bottom in Cocoa longer term. Recently we made a higher bottom in the short term prices move as the first sign of a trend. Cocoa the key ingredient to Chocolate is going to move up again. It could be the start of a 3rd wave for the Long term so this time it may even go higher

US Steel

I have used the US Steel chart many times [even before the launch of the new site], to state my view on the metals sector. So In Feb of 2016 for the first time I published it here showing the completion of 5 waves down in wave C and thus a bottom in the metals sector. This was against everyday falling metals stocks back home. So more recently we have not seen a big correction in domestic metals stocks even as metal prices have corrected. The US Steel chart shows that the stock went from 6$ to 40$ in what maybe only wave 1 or A of a larger advance. We have seen a correction to 66% retracement in wave 2 or C down. What should then follow is wave 3 or C up next. C=A goes as far as 120. The rising channel below has room till 70$. And we recently bottom near 18.55. Till we hold these lows and this key retracement mark the trend for the metals should again be up. This should be important.

Sugar NCDEX

Local Sugar prices have not fallen yet along with global prices. A parallel line for wave B puts the resistance at 3900. Till we are below it we should still anticipate wave C down. The channel support is at 3625 below which wave 4 of lower degree is at 3350. And if the fall is deeper then 61.8% of the entire sugar rally is at 2775

NCDEX Future Index

The NCDEX Future index closed the month near the 40 month average. After a 5th wave it should go still lower in the months ahead back to the wave 4 area near 2119, from 2807 currently. So no early bottom in Indian Agro prices yet.

Copper

Commodities have been mixed. Copper below appears stable. So do lead and Aluminium. Nickel still keeps falling and Zinc is seeing deep retracements. Copper is holding the 20dma and the daily momentum remains in buy mode so it is giving positive signs. 2.54 is the 20dma as the support and unless we close below that the next move higher should unfold.

Gold

Gold broke out of a tight range seen for the last two weeks. On weekly charts however this was the 4th positive week. We are in a larger 3rd wave up that has the implications of going past the 1295 mark all the way to 3=1 near 1400$ in this move.

Crude

Crude stopped at the 61.8% mark for the day. Now we need to see if 46.7 holds as a support and if it does then we are heading towards c=a near 55.50, and if it overshoots then the trendline of all the highs for the last two years is at 58.50

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Technical Analysis On Karachi & Sri Lanka Markets

I do not invest in Karachi but was clear that the neighboring market was going to beat the Nifty. Now it is also important from a geopolitical angle. Do not expect escalation of border problems during a bull market. Frankly they do not care and do not have time for this. Not in the near future ie the next six months because wave 5 is still extending and should touche the upper end of the rising channel since 2009 before it is done. Maybe even a throw over the line. 66000-70000 remains on the cards. This is a quarterly chart.

Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is in a long term 4th wave consolidation that might eventually transform into a 4th wave. So far wave C was 61.8% of wave B. Wave D can test the upper line at 7610 and wave E the lower line near 6261. After that a 5th wave bull market will follow.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

S&P Technical Analysis

The US Indices of S&P and Dow touched the trendline of the highs forming what looks like a ending diagonal pattern. Prechter says that you should remain open to a top in the US markets even if they can push higher if they do. Steve maintains that this triangle is a wave 4 triangle and one more new high can occur. But in both cases we will start with a dip to the lower trendline to 2366. So given the risk that 2366 may or may not hold you should keep in mind the idea that an ending may already be complete and top in place yesterday night for US markets

 

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Realty Index triple top

The Realty stocks index just topped near the trendline of the highs from 2012. What this means is that the entire 2012-2017 pattern is probably a long term triangle and wave B of a larger decline. This rally completed wave e of B within the triangle and from the recent high of 2129 we should head to 609 in wave C down based on C=A. That is a 70% decline for the realty index on this simple equation. So people dreaming about the turnaround in the realty stocks into a bull market need to think what they are smoking unless they are confident that the recent highs can be taken out fundamentally.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

PSU Bank Index

The PSU Bank index is at the upper end of its range since 2010. Draw a trendline from the highs and we just about kissed it. My sensex is that wave Z down started as shown. This is the last and final wave down for any corrective phase. And while it does not have to be large and can end at the neckline my sense is that it will extend as shown and end with an ending pattern. The entire recapitalisation of a sector is not possible without major write downs and declines in book values and rise in the equity base. This is just logic that anyone should get. What are you thinking? In any case we look at the sectors investment potential only after wave Z down is complete. Right now the upside is hardly any in my understanding of the trendline resistance.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Midcaps & Nifty

It is rare that any big decline in the broad market does not include a decline in the key indices so here is a look at what has happened in this space.

The RS of the Midcaps fell a point below the lower end [green indicator] of the wedge like pattern in the indicator.Staying below the line should mean that the trend in Midcaps has reversed.

The wave count of the BSE Midcap index shows all the moves up and down from 2015 onward as 3-3-3-3-3 so this is a ending pattern and not a trend which would have been 5-3-5-3-5.

Tomorrow I will look at the updates data after expiration and see if there is any new evidence there. But till then today’s bump up in Nifty is a reminder of 2013 Jan when the Nifty made one more new high at the end of the month even as Midcaps were down 8%. So here instead of a ending pattern as shown by me for the BSE 500, the Nifty maybe forming an expanding triangle at the top. This allows the Nifty to go to closer to 9600 before topping out and joining the Midcaps. This is not certain or necessary but an open possibility and may happen on just 1-3 stocks with high weight.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodities technical analysis Adam Smith Associates

Crude

Crude completed a 5 wave rise and is mostly wave a of an advance. Wave b can see it dip to either 48 or 47 near the wave iv low or 61.8% of the entire rise before wave c up unfolds.

BSE Metal Index

The Metals index has completed a near 61.8% retracement and the recent up move was 5 waves and retraced to a higher bottom. So the rally from today may as well be wave 3 up for the Metals index. The next wave of rally for the sector may have started. Initial level to expect is 13700 on the index. All Value wave Investments in this sector should follow.

 

Lead MCX

Lead prices made a double bottom and started to recover [at 132]. The daily momentum crossed over to the buy side so we should consider that an up trend has started here. 140 and 152 are the resistance levels from the two trendlines on the chart.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd