Commodity Technical Analysis


Global sugar prices are again rising. So wave 4 triangle appears ruled out. EWI was considering it and I waited for a while and now the price action of the months since July is a base triangle that is bullish. Prices are rising and a bottom may already be in place. Then we could be looking at a multi month rally in Sugar. We closed t at 15.13$ and a close above the 40 week average at 15.30 on a weekly basis would be good confirmation for a bigger move.


Most base metals are back into correction mode and the potential for a further rally appears to have deteriorated. So I was bullish on Lead and it did rally but halted at 78.6% retracement of w below and in 3 waves. So it is best marked an x wave. This takes me back to my initial thinking that the Oct top is wave 5 and we are in a more prolonged corrective phase till proven otherwise. In this case Lead could go back to 61.8% of wave 5 near the lower trendline at 147 for this expanding trading range.


Daily and weekly momentum for Zinc are in sell mode and all the moves since the Oct top are 3-3-3-3-3, and it now looks like a triangle. So resistance is at 215.80, and support at 206.50. Below 206.50  we could see a dip back to 190. Retracements are 187.25 and 180.40, at 50% and 61.8%


Wrong, that is it, I thought wave 5 ended at a double top but then we broke out. The move to new highs ended in three waves, so it must be part of wave 5 [impulse = 5+4 waves ]. So wave 5 can now be marked at the high of 838 truncated in wave v of 5. We closed below the 20dma and can dip to 61.8% retracement at 730. If that breaks then the 20 week average is at 708.


Gold formed a triangle and it appears to be taking support at the 1270 mark. So possible that we get a short term rally with the dollar falling. A move above 1288$ would indicate a rally to 61.8% near 1320. At this stage I still mark this as wave B and not the start of a new wave, though the long term outlook i bullish.

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