Nasdaq 100 Technical Analysis

The Nasdaq 100 – is rising in a channel. While wave 5 could have ended into the July high, the period resulted in a consolidation that looks like a running triangle. So the entire rise from the 2016 bottom is in a channel and wave 5 can go to the upper end of the channel, and the rising channel is now kissing the long term channel from the 2009 lows as well, with both converging at 6600. So unless we get an early trend reversal in price indicators that the 5th wave for the Nasdaq 100 topped, it can stretch as far as 6600 in the coming weeks. The Dow rallied earlier and now Nasdaq is playing catch up.

Currency Technical Analysis


1.152 and 1.13 are the next two fibonacci projections for the Euro on the way down. the trend down should resume and the up move yesterday maybe almost done.


USDJPY support is at 112.90, and heading in wave iii towards 117.95


USDINR – two major near term support levels coming up. 61.8% at 64.59, and the 20wma at 64.45. Holding these two the next wave up to above 66 should start.


EURINR – is in decline with the Euro and the 38.2% retracement is at 74.16 and 50% retracement is at 72.92.

Commodity Technical Analysis


No change in trend or view here. A slow decline is on as the dollar rises. So the USDINR can support mcx prices even as comex prices fall but the bias is negative. The 20dma at 29563 should be the key resistance level.  Retracement levels are open at 50-61.8%


Lead Prices started to break down. They may close the month down today. This can mean that longer term we completed a 5 wave advance in a double top as shown on this weekly chart. Major support levels are 144-142 at the lower trendlines and the wave 4 swing low at 131.


A 5 wave rise done for Aluminium the next set of levels are at 135 and 131 as long as we are below the 142 mark. Below 131 we would have to be open to 120 as well.


Copper prices stopped short of a new high, so wave v of 5 was truncated. The first support is at 440 [40dema and trendline] and if that breaks we go to the wave 4 low near 417.


The BSE Metal index has completed a 5 wave advance from the Sept low and possibly from the May bottom. With Base metal prices also giving up expect a deeper cut in metal stocks in the coming weeks as they give back some of the gains. Going back to the wave iv low is normal.


Natural Gas for months is forming a triangle in what could be a right shoulder. The resistance line for the x wave is at 3.08, and the support is at 2.78, If 2.78 breaks we would head to 2.5-2.30.