Commodity Technical Analysis And Trends


Zinc Mcx did not break the 191 support and staying above it keeps open the option of the rally in zinc resuming. The upper end of the channel is at 217 for wave 5 up.



Complexity can be baffling at times. So after many weeks of complex moved Lead prices are moving up again. This requires serious consideration. So we have retraced 61.8% in what could be wave 2 as a complex pattern till we hold the recent 143 support. From here 3=1 can project up to 174 in wave 3 up.


Silver immediate support at 17.50$, a close below which opens up 17.25 and 16.80 below that.


Crude MCX is testing the July high of 3234, above which prices can stretch to the upper end of the rising channel at 3421. Note if we make new highs we are still in wave D and the marking of D will shift from July to the current move up where it completes. 61.58% of the previous decline is at 3380 [blue line].


Copper Mcx – 38.2% retracement done in 3 waves with support at the 40dema and the recent low at 417, we can now start wave 5 up to retest the recent high of 451.


Aluminium Mcx Completed a 3 wave correction in a channel to the lower Bollinger band at 131 as the key support. Wave 5 could start anytime. 138 and 143 are two Fibonacci projections for wave 5 up based on the ratio analysis of the move so far. 20dma at 133.63 is the first resistance followed by the wave 3 high at 136.20.


International Coffee prices are back on track with wave 3 up starting and should now attempt to breakout of the triangle upside at 158


Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd



FIIs What are they upto in India?

FIIs have been consistent sellers in the market and I am not talking only about the Cash market where they have sold net for Sept so far after a similar trend in August. The Index futures OI that I plot for FIIs [blue line] and shows a similar trend for much longer. FIIs were Max Long in Index futures a year ago. This year they did not add up that much and since June they are in exit mode.

Now positions came very close to zero in August and the markets bounced. Near Zero readings have caused market bottoms before, except in larger bearish trends when the Positions declined below the lower red line and FIIs were short in index futures. So either that is likely or FIIs will be pushed into buying again from here which could propel the market up like crazy. In that sense this is an inflection point.

IF FIIs keep selling then they will be going to the other side of the trade from Long to Short else they should start buying back. I have drawn a falling trendline from the June high and as long as the trend remains below it, I should think it is down. Starting Sept the blue line is falling again and not rising despite a rising market so they are not yet buying meaningfully.


The second chart which shows the extreme in Options OI in client positions as a % of the total. Look at the Red circles around all the tops since 2015. We are in the red zone again. What I do not know is whether large part of the decline will come this month or the next because of all the Put writing that has been done. But the upside should be limited on this indicator.


Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd


Trade Finance News & Updates Around The World

Trade finance gap narrows amid minimal fintech impact

The global trade finance gap has fallen from US$1.6tn to US$1.5tn, but the impact of fintech has been minimal to date.

The latest annual survey from the Asian Development Bank (ADB) finds that many of the perennial issues persist, such as funding gaps in emerging markets, hugely disproportionate rejection rates for small businesses and a rise in non-bank lending.

But despite the industry’s zeal for digitisation, just 20% of firms reporting have used digital finance platforms. In line with global trends, peer-to-peer lending is the most-used fintech model (23%).

And while 80% of banks surveyed said fintech will reduce compliance costs and 66% said that it will enhance their ability to assess SME risk, the rejection rate of SMEs continues to rise.


Jamii Bora bank introduces trade finance to support entrepreneurs

Jamii Bora provides trade finance that supports enterprises and entrepreneurs by providing practical and flexible financial services that are tailor made to customers’ needs. Trade finance offers insurance Premium Financing, Overdraft facility, Letters of Credit, Bora Customs Duty Facility, LPO Financing, Invoice Discounting, Bid Bond, Performance Bond, and Advance Payment Guarantee.

Trade finance targets contractors, Suppliers, Manufacturers, Retailers, Wholesalers, Distributors, Insurance brokers, Insurance companies, importers, and exporters.


Trade Finance Endures, And Overcomes, Banks’ Slow-Moving Innovation

A few years ago, Sameer Sehgal, the new CEO of trade finance firm Traydstream, said he probably wouldn’t have agreed that banks are playing a role in the innovation of the industry.

But trade finance is the target for massive disruption thanks to technologies like blockchain and robotics, Sehgal told PYMNTS, and banks are finally perking up to the need for progress.

Still, it’s not enough. Recent estimates from the Asian Development Bank pegged the global trade finance gap at $1.5 trillion in 2016, with SMBs bearing the brunt of that lack of financing for their global trade initiatives. Despite efforts from the FinTech community, the gap remains, and automation is far from ubiquitous, Sehgal said.

“Trade finance, in large part, hasn’t changed, even in centuries,” he explained. “The inefficiencies of processes are glaring — humongous.”


Global trade finance gap stands at $1.5tr in 2016: ADB

Businesses of all sizes continue to struggle to access sufficient credit, resulting in a global trade finance gap of $1.5 trillion in 2016, according to an Asian Development Bank (ADB) brief released on Tuesday.

Developing Asia’s share of the trade finance gap was 40% of the global total, the brief added. In its fifth annual study, 2017 Trade Finance Gaps, Growth, and Jobs Survey, ADB quantifies market gaps for trade finance and explores their impact on growth and jobs through a survey of over 515 banks and 1,336 firms from 103 countries.

While the global trade finance gap stabilised in 2016 compared to the 2015 record high of $1.6 trillion, it still translated into missed growth opportunities and job creation.


Tunisia: UIB gets USD 10-million trade finance line from EBRD

In the framework of the implementation of its 2017-2020 development strategy supported by its activity and its offers for companies and SMEs, the “Union Internationale de banques” (UIB) announced the signing of a Trade Finance Partnership Agreement with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD).

This line, totaling $ 10 million (equivalent to 24.4 million dinars), is intended to cover issues of guarantees maturing up to 3 years and financing pre-export and post-import transactions.

This agreement consolidates and broadens the UIB’s partnership with EBRD inaugurated on the conclusion on June 22 of a credit line dedicated to the financing of SMEs and mid-size enterprises in the amount of € 40 million and a maturity of 7 years.


Bank of Georgia Signs $75 Million Trade Finance Facility with ADB, IFC, Citibank

Bank of Georgia has signed a $75 million one-year Club Trade Finance Facility (Club Trade Facility) arranged by Citi with the Asian Development Bank (ADB) and the International Finance Corporation (IFC), a member of the World Bank Group.

This is the fourth Club Trade Facility arranged by Citi for Bank of Georgia, which attracted several international investors during the syndication.

Bank of Georgia is a leading Georgian bank, based on total assets (33.8% market share), total loans (31.5% market share), and client deposits (31.5% market share) as of 30 June 2017.

Proceeds of this year’s Club Trade Facility will support import and export transactions for top corporate customers of Bank of Georgia, increasing the volume and value of trade transactions in Georgia’s key economic sectors, including agribusiness, transportation, and energy.


A view from the ICC: Changing times call for a collaborative approach

The International Chamber of Commerce (ICC) Banking Commission’s new head of policy, Olivier Paul, discusses how the Banking Commission’s role will be critical as the trade finance industry adapts to unprecedented change.

There are some fundamental challenges ahead for trade finance: involving the regulatory landscape, the technological evolution of our industry and the vital inclusion of new non-bank sources of liquidity. These changes will involve everyone, meaning we will all need to adapt, including the ICC Banking Commission, where I recently became head of policy.

Yet I remain optimistic. For trade finance as a discipline, I am convinced that its best years are ahead of it, as long as we can embrace the future and view change as part of an evolutionary process rather than an existential threat. In fact, I see the Banking Commission’s role as vital for preparing the industry for that future, as well as being an advocate and influencer of the changes underway.

Just 20 years ago the most important role for the Banking Commission was rule-making, with advocacy a second, though still important, function. Since the 2008 financial crisis, however, these roles have been reversed, with advocacy of trade finance now the Banking Commission’s most critical function


White Oak Commercial Finance Provides $20MM Factoring Facility to Luxury Goods Distributor

White Oak Commercial Finance, LLC (WOCF), one of the nation’s leading financiers serving the middle market, announced today that it has provided a $20 million dollarfactoring facility to a distributor of luxury and branded apparel, accessories, handbags and watches. The proceeds will provide working capital to purchase inventory, manage account payables, and repay existing debt.

“White Oak Commercial Finance has a deep history in retail financing, having provided designers, importers and manufacturers of retail goods with access to growth and working capital for nearly 30 years,” said Robert Grbic, President and Chief Executive Officer, WOCF. “With strong historical profits and seasoned management team, this luxury goods distributor is an ideal company to finance.”


Blockchain and invoice finance: an early benefit analysis

Blockchain technology is generating huge amounts of hype across a number of industries – perhaps none more so than financial services. One area of finance that has received less attention to date is invoice financing. However, as we explain in this article, blockchain has the potential to revolutionise invoice financing, for the benefit of suppliers, debtors and financial institutions alike.

To start with it will be useful to briefly summarise what blockchain actually is. For a more detailed explanation of the Blockchain technology and some of the legal considerations with its adoption, see our introduction to blockchain.



Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Above news update and trends are sourced from internet and are purely meant for reading on the related subject and for information. Adam Smith Associate is not responsible for any of the content and nor it is meant for any commercial benefits



Adam Smith Associates at CIIs’ Banking Colloquium on 16 September, 2017

As the economy moves towards digitization and cashless regime and single market structure under the reform measures of GST and demonetization, Indian Banking sector is going through a sea change.

The recent merger of the State Bank of India with its associate banks has set the path of consolidation for other banks as well. India has the world’s highest stressed asset ratio and RBI is working prudently for management of stressed assets made up of bad loans, restructured debt and advances to companies that cannot meet servicing requirements.

The microfinance industry and the non-banking financial institutions need to work for a change in their financial transactions, a major chunk of which was based on cash transactions till recently.

The new Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, which lays down timeline to recover from defaulters and capping of bank loans to conglomerates, is promising a new Indian banking landscape by bringing transparency in the system and effective resolution to bad loan.

The issue of cyber security for the banks is now a pressing issue for the economy since the wave of digitization has set in.

Against this backdrop, CII Eastern Region is organizing the 10th edition of “Banking Colloquium” on Saturday, 16 September, 2017 at The Lalit Great Eastern, Kolkata.

The Conference will have an Inaugural Session on Recent Policy Measures, Visionaries’ Roundtable and Technical Sessions on Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code for NPA Management, Digital Banking and the future and Session on Alternative Modes of finance.

Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd, a leading trade finance service provider with presence around the globe will be leading the discussion during Technical Session on “Alternative Mode Of Finance” at CIIs’ 10th Banking Colloquium on Saturday 16th Septmber 2017 at Kolkatta.

Mr Rudra Kundu, Managing Director of Adam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd. will be moderating the session on Alternative Mode Of Finance wherein Mr Rudra will touch upon

  • Infrastructure Finance
  • Capital controls and global free flow of capital
  • PE Funding
  • Housing Finance
  • Term Financing & Working Capital Finance


Panelist for this session will be

Mr Arup Rakshit
Head – Treasurer Advisory Group
HDFC Bank Limited

Mr Santosh Nayar

Mr Debasish Mallick
Deputy Managing Director
Export Import Bank of India

Mr Supratim Sarkar
EVP & Group Head (PA & SF), SBI Capital Markets Ltd.

Mr Manish Jaiswal
MD & CEO, Magma Housing Finance Ltd

This event is organized by CII

How Is Brexit Affecting Trade and Export Finance?


The Brexit vote will take another couple years to go into effect, but that doesn’t mean businesses can’t start anticipating the changes.

While the details of the Brexit deals’ impact on export finance aren’t clear yet, there are several areas that will likely be impacted in one way or another.

In this post, we’ll examine how the Brexit deal will impact future trade and export finance.

What Brexit Means for Export Finance

What Brexit Means for Export Finance

The world of United Kingdom export finance is currently up in the air, but there are key areas which will likely be affected. The changes will be contingent on the final trade agreements the UK makes with the European Union and other nations. Check out the list below to see what might change:

Lower Export Prices

Prices for exported goods could witness a drop.

Depending on the nature of the UK’s future trade deals, prices for exported goods could witness a drop.

If the UK continues to export to countries within the European Union, for example, producers might have to lower their prices to make their products more attractive to importers. Alternatively, if the UK enters into trade agreements with different countries, concerns regarding tariffs will be minimized.

Different Export Markets

The Brexit deal might end up changing what countries the UK does business with, depending on the final trade deals reached.

The UK already has access to expansive export markets located in United States, Canada, Japan, China, and the United Arab Emirates. This list could expand, however, if there’s enough global interest from free markets. In fact, the UK is currently promoting that idea with its “Exporting Is Great” campaign.

Many free market countries are already showing interest in entering into a UK trade deal, actually. The UK could leverage its strong ties with India, for example. Other interested countries include Australia and South Africa.

Pound Exchange Rates

Pound Currency

The impact on export finance and market access is clouded with uncertainty and primarily revolves around potential trade agreements made with the European Union. Exchange rates for the Pound, however, is a more cut and dry issue. Currently, the Pound is proving stable, though, as investors have accounted for the impact of Brexit talks.

Export Tariffs

Export tariffs will become an issue, but mainly for businesses that choose to continue doing business with the European Union as their leading market.

Obstacles in this area exist because the European Union will have to ensure its regulations are met while preserving its member’s benefits. This could translate into the previously mentioned lower prices.

Larger companies will be able to take that hit to their profits. Smaller companies, however, will likely have more trouble maintaining their profit margins.

Watching the News

The final outcome of the Brexit vote has yet to be seen.

The final outcome of the Brexit vote has yet to be seen. But don’t fret just yet. The result might actually be in your favor. To find the latest developments on this ongoing story, check out the Adam Smith Associates blog.

Adam Smith Associates At GTR Asia (Singapore)

Building on its reputation as the largest and most popular trade finance gathering anywhere in the world, the conference returned to Singapore on September 5-8 at Marina Bay Sands. With over 100 speakers, 45 exhibitors, 60 sponsors & partners the event provided an effective and impartial marketplace for all involved in trade, commodity and export finance.

Officially completing its 9th year, attendance exceeded the 900 plus delegates of 2016’s event and welcomed over 1,000 delegates, affirming that GTR Asia Trade & Treasury Week as the essential place to be for anyone involved in international trade and treasury.

Topics discussed include:

  • Protectionism vs multilateralism, realignment towards China, economic trends and scenarios
  • Trade finance gaps in 2017: The impact on trade, growth and jobs
  • The Belt & Road Initiative: The jewel in Asia’s crown?
  • Great expectations: How is the industry preparing for the era of fintech-enabled trade finance?
  • Trader perspectives on the commodity rebound and challenges in structured commodity finance ›› Country profiles: Vietnam, the Philippines, India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka
  • Understanding potential threats to trade and economic stability in Asia
  • The role of insurers in managing and mitigating risk in uncertain times
  • Managing and financing Asia’s supply chains and the importance of working capital optimisation
  • Achieving sustainable trade: The challenges ahead
  • Are more investors accessing the trade finance market? What are they looking for?
  • ‘The business of treasury’: Operational challenges and the strategic environment

Mr Rudra Kundu, Managing Director was a panelist at the at the “Trade & Commodity Finance” stream from Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd.  Wherein the interview was conducted by Mr Rudra on topic

Are more investors accessing the trade finance market? What are they looking for?

Clement Schappler, Chief Risk Officer, EFA Group & Pankaj Kumar, Chief Executive Officer, Riqueza Capital were interviewed
by Rudra Kundu, Managing Director, Adam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd.

● Examining the key factors in new kinds of investors looking at trade finance assets: How has this manifested itself in Asia? Is a different outlook required from that of traditional investment banking?
● What are investors looking for? Is it the type of yield or whether the asset is backed by insurance? Are we seeing more long-term interest? How difficult is it to get the right level of trade expertise?
● To what extent can supply chain finance play a role in handling investors and underwriting investments? To what degree have legal concerns been addressed?

Copper & Copper MCX Technical Analysis

Copper is now close to ending a 5 wave rise from the June low. So a correction could quickly set in. The RSI at 84.40 on the daily chart is a high reading. 3.02$ is the first support on the say down.

Copper MCX

Copper MCX prices are at the fag end of wave v of 3 and overbought. 3=1 is much higher but given the readings we need to be open to a unexpected price reaction. The MCX chart shows the upper end of the channel at 457 and lower end support near 433 and 20dma at 426. The most recent swing low is at 442, so a move below 442 could be the first sign of weakness.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Google – Where is it heading?

Google – or now better known as Alphabet, the stock has been in the long term 5th wave for a while. I would have liked to believe that it would be complete by now but as shown on this chart till the parallel channel support at 907 holds there is room for wave 5 of 5 up to 1050 to develop in the coming months

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity Technical Analysis

Aluninium MCX

Aluminium MCX prices attempted to go above 135 but have fallen back with a negative divergence on the RSI. The structure of the correction is probably more complex like an expanded flat, and we could see a dip to 129-128 range, the next support range.

Zinc MCX

Zinc prices achieved equality to the July July move. In doing so the last 6 days move is a 3 wave structure. So it is best classified as an expanded flat that can see a dip in wave c down to 191-90 as the next support zone.


Gold is making higher tops and bottoms and the last swing low is at 1300 holding which the trend does not change. The only EW botheration is that all the moves up are overlapped. Yes it can eventually lead to multiple extentions and then we would be beyond 1500 in this move itself. But till we get a non overlapping leg watch the 1300 support as key, it is a little far, you may trail with the 20dma that is also at 1300 and rising. Last year when prices rose after a false break below the yellow neckline the overlapping move up failed to continue, lets hope that does not repeat as we get closer to the 2016 top at 1375.


Soy Meal prices reached the lower end of a triangular support near 290 and started moving higher. Wave Z could be finally complete and wave 3 of larger degree could unfold for Soy prices after a long consolidation in wave 2. The upper end of the triangle is at 332 for a breakout.


Domestic sugar prices opened lower even as global sugar prices are showing signs of near term strength returning. However local prices have not followed global prices of late and therefore there is room to wait and watch the pattern in local prices which is still showing weakness ahead in wave C down.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd


Bank Nifty & Euro Technical Analysis

Bank Nifty

The hourly chart of the bank nifty futures this morning shows that mostly we will head to 24580 completing a triangle before we see lower prices.


Euro is bouncing back in minor wave b and wave c down should be next. Prices should go back to 1.166 or lower.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd