US 30 Years Treasury Bonds – Technical Analysis

The 30 year bonds are still holding up and in wave v of C up. The bonds might make one more push higher at least and get closer to the upper end of the channel before we get a meaningful trend reversal from the rising trend in bonds.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Dow Utilities – Technical Analysis

The Dow Utilities chart is a rare one we look at. But here it is. Interesting was that it just touched the trendline from the 2000-2008 highs at the recent high. The entire period fits a channel on a arithmetic scale.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

S & P 500 – Technical Analysis

S&P is in wave 5 of 5 and near the upper end of a rising channel on the monthly chart [arithmetic scale]. The next trend reversal would end the 8 year long bull market. Wave 1 of 5 was 5 months and 3 took 4 months, we are in the 3rd month of wave 5 and waiting for the next turn. Till then…

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Currency And Dollar – Technical Analysis

USDBRL

Time to consider the bull case for the USDBRL again. The real has taken support on its long term trendline and started to push higher. The wave count longer term is indicative of a 5th wave that can go to a new high. 3.16 is the lower end of the channel that is acting as the pivot for the trend. 4.11 is the mid channel level.

Dollar Index

The dollar index took support on the 20dma at 97.07 and should be heading higher towards the 38.2% retracement mark at 98.19

USDINR

USDINR – came very close to the reverse channel. That means take a line of the tops and then take a parallel trendline and put it to the lows. That was at 63.50. The upper end of the channel is at 90, 5=1 is at 85. So the risk reward favors USDINR bulls. I have been marking the rise from the 2008 low as a impulse long term and we should be about to start wave 5 of the move next based on channels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Commodity – Technical Analysis

LEAD MCX

Lead broke past the 40dema in wave iii minor degree. Levels to watch are support at 137. 38.2% retracement at 144, 50% at 148 and 61.8% at 152

ZINC MCX

Zinc broke out of the falling channel at 165 which should act as a support and the next set of retracement levels are 172-177-182

COPPER MCX

Copper MCX – closed above the averages as they hold above the falling trend since FEB. Momentum turned positive and 362.80 is the recent low support and 385 is the next resistance

Wheat CBT

Touched the upper end of a falling channel after a corrective advance and thus is open to dropping again from 471 to the lower end of the channel near 300.

 

COFFEE CSCE

Coffee prices have not yet bottomed and had a big down day yesterday. So chances are they will slip to the neckline near 100. While this level held the last few times we need to watch this time. Agro prices in general are falling everywhere, in India and abroad and no stopping it yet.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Trade Finance News Trends

Trade finance modernization turns towards blockchain

A study of European treasurers by working capital fintech C2FO finds that 75% are focusing on investing in trade finance technology in 2017. Colin Sharp, senior vice-president, EMEA at C2FO, says the shifting macroeconomic environment is pressuring corporates to refocus their efforts on trade finance: “Treasurers are facing a lot of uncertainty, both from the US and around Brexit. This is putting stress on the supply chain, with demand increasing and decreasing. Treasures want the ability to use their assets to make returns and give some certainty.

Source:https://www.euromoney.com/article/b12khnzp4pq9p5/trade-finance-modernization-turns-towards-blockchain

ICC Academy unveils new e-course on digital trade finance and fintechs

The educational arm of the International Chamber of Commerce (ICC), the ICC Academy, has launched an advanced-level e-course entitled “Digital Trade Finance and Fintechs.” The curriculum is aimed at professionals working in banks, corporations, financial institutions, insurance companies and financial technology (fintech) firms.

Source: https://iccwbo.org/media-wall/news-speeches/icc-academy-unveils-new-e-course-digital-trade-finance-fintechs/

Targeting Seamless Trade Finance Operations

As Nigerians look forward to better days when the economy would have stabilised and emerged from recession, integrated digital payments company, Interswitch Group, has struck a deal with Misys, a leading provider of lending, treasury, trading and risk management solutions to ease trade finance operations and improve service delivery as far as local banks are concerned.

Source: https://www.thisdaylive.com/index.php/2017/06/22/targeting-seamless-trade-finance-operations/

SBI cautious in India but looking to increase corporate lending in Europe

State Bank of India is trying to increase corporate lending in Europe. SBI Frankfurt, which has the status of an independent bank in Europe, has traditionally lent for trade financing but now wants to fund Indian business houses in Europe and European firms in India.

In the recent past, there has been a conscious shift in strategy to lend more to European companies, according to an executive with SBI Frankfurt. Now nearly 50 per cent of the bank’s non-trade finance business portfolio consists of syndicated loans to European companies. SBI Frankfurt’s growth in business over the next few years would come from lending to European firms, confirmed another bank executive.

Source: http://www.business-standard.com/article/finance/sbi-cautious-in-india-but-looking-to-increase-corporate-lending-in-europe-117061700260_1.html

 

Maersk now offering trade finance operation for customers

Danish liner company Maersk Line has expanded into the trade finance business by allowing customers to finance their operations as long as they are shipping with Maersk.

The financing scheme works because Maersk has a rich trove of customer information from which to base a decision on the customer’s creditworthiness, according to the Copenhagen-based company. This enables companies to manage their shipping and finance needs with one provider, rather than using one vendor for shipping and another vendor—normally a bank—for trade finance, Maersk said.

http://www.freshplaza.com/article/177338/Maersk-now-offering-trade-finance-operation-for-customers

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

Currency – Technical Analysis

EURO

Euro – c=a points to 1.105 and 38.2% retracement is at 1.102, the trend should still be lower.

 

USDJPY

USDJPY should continue higher in wave c up to 115. Support is near 110.60

USDGBP

USDGBP – took support on the averages and has mostly started wave 5 up. Support is near 0.783 amd 0.777 and we should be heading to test 0.808 swing high next and eventually the wave 3 high at 0.846

USDCNY

USDCNY – corrected in 3 waves in what might be a 4th wave correction in a channel. Wave 5 up could start from 6.78. I cannot rule out a dip to 6.76, while non needed, and it would be a 38.2% retracement of wave 3. 5=1 pionts to 7.04 in wave 5 up. 6.892 resistance from the falling channel where we would have to breakout for higher levels.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

Commodity – Technical Analysis

NICKEL MCX

Nickel has a ending diagonal pattern at the lows the lower end support is near 558. The breakout is above 575-579. Daily momentum crossed over to the buy side as a start, so keep an eye on the next breakout as it may mark a trend reversal from down to up

LEAD MCX

Lead tried to break the double bottom support at 132 but is back above it and momentum has positive divergences and a buy mode, so till this level holds the bottom for Lead Mcx maybe considered. A move above  the 40dema and Bollinger band would further confirm strength.

 

ZINC MCX

Zinc has made a comeback on momentum indicators and crossed the 20dma. The breakout of the falling trendline from the Feb high is at 166.50 above which we can be in wave 3 up next. Conservatively a channel breakout has a measurement target based on taking the height of the channel and projecting it above the breakout point. That gives us 185.

GOLD

Gold’s sell off yesterday makes sure that the May June rally was corrective in nature. Chances are growing that we are in a larger triangle. Initially we will test the internal trendline of the 2017 lows near 1228$, but if that breaks then a drop to 1170 cannot be ruled out. So we will watch what happens at 1228, and not preempt a bottom there. The larger triangel structure will be a very bullish set up for long term investors once complete. By July-Aug it could be done.

Aluminium MCX

MCX Aluminium prices moved up yesterday out of a narrow intraday range of the last few days. It was very close to the lower end of a channel near 119 and 38.2% retracement near 120. The move up would test the falling channel at 125.70. And a breakout above the channel would put us into wave 5 up to 140 [ based on 5=1]

SILVER

I have recently switched to bearish wave counts for the near term on gold and silver but that does not change the long term bullish picture. So Silver is in wave C down which is usually a 5 wave decline. Wave iii of C is in progress and could be extended. Wave C=A points to 15.24$. Wave iii of C may extend to 15.84.

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Canada And Nasdaq – Technical Analysis

CANADA
The most direct effect of falling Oil is on countries like Russian Australia and yes Canada. So Canada has been making a series of lower tops since FEB that may have gone unnoticed but now it is close to breaking the neckline at 15130 below which a steep drop to 14500 could be on the cards.

 

NASDAQ

US indices are diverging with max weakness in the Nasdaq. The chart attached shows that may remain the case near term and the Nasdaq may continue to form wave 2 up for a while. Wave 3 can be presumed only after the lows break. Till then the Dow is holding out.

 

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd

 

Asia On The Line – Technical Analysis

For a while many Asin markets are testing multi year trendlines so here is a quick look

Thailand 2013-2015 trendline resistance

Taiwan is close to the 2010-2015 trendline

Jakarta 2013-2015 trendline of the highs

Philippines is close to the 2015-2016 trendline

Adam Smith Associates offers trade & commodity finance related services & solutions to its domestic and international clients. Views expressed in this article are purely of the author – Mr Rohit Srivastava – a leading technical analyst. Visit www.adamsmith.tv for services offered by Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd